http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Have to dash out this morning and do stuff so I'm reneging on the morning commentary. See you this arvo....

My parents (now in their 80s) were of that era, "reds under the bed" and all that sort of thing. They thought Bush heading into Iraq was a good thing to get rid of that nasty Saddam character who "killed his own people" and when Oz PM, John Howard teamed up with Bush that was also a plus because if "Oz gets into trouble then America will look after us". My parents aren't stupid but definitely naive.

Fortunately I left home young and immersed myself in the 1970s where everything was questioned and individuality was respected. It seems to have gone full circle again as I consider younger generations much more conservative than myself, all desperately trying to be the same as their peers, served with a fair dollop of celeb worship.

All Ords scuttled up +2.4% today. All sectors had solid gains, led once again by IT +6.6% followed by miners +3.6% and Energy +3.5%. Healthcare had the least gain, +0.8%.

Big gains on the leading miners: BHP +4.5% and RIO +4%. Golds didn't do so well, Newcrest -1.9%, Newmont +4.2% and Lihir -3%. Juniors flat to slightly down.

Oils moved right along: Woodside +4.4%, Santos +0.9% and Caltex +4.2%.

Asia way up there: Taiwan +4%, Nikkers +3.9%, Honkers +3.4%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Japan Economy Grows 3.7%, Twice as Fast as Expected

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's economy grew 3.7 percent last quarter, twice the pace economists forecast, as business investment rose and exports to Asia helped companies weather the U.S. slowdown.

Gross domestic product in the three months ended Dec. 31 accelerated from a 1.3 percent expansion in the third quarter, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for annualized growth of 1.7 percent.

----------------

Singapore Cuts 2008 GDP Estimate on Global Slowdown

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore cut its 2008 growth forecast and said the economy risks falling into recession as a slowdown in the U.S. erodes global demand for the island's goods.

Gross domestic product will probably increase by between 4 percent and 6 percent this year, lower than an earlier estimate of between 4.5 percent and 6.5 percent, the Trade Ministry said in a statement today.

Australia's Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest Since 1974

Feb. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's unemployment rate fell to the lowest since 1974 as employers hired extra workers for a record 15th month, increasing pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs as soon as March. The nation's currency rose.

Total employment rose 26,800 in January, the Bureau of Statistics said today in Sydney. The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 24 economists was for 15,000. The jobless rate fell to 4.1 percent from 4.3 percent.

just went short Dow at 12545

7059 is big res in DAX. Todays high was 7062, right now trading at 7018

have a short bias for EUR/JPY today, but no signal yet

now long Dow at 12551, not convinced abotu that, but i stick to my signals

short GBP/USD at 1.9686

short EUR/JPY at 158.10

something doesnt fit, conflicting signals. We will see what happens.

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNew...me=businessNews

market waits for 8:30 data

I find it ironic that CreditSUISSE is asking the US taxpayer to bail it out. The Swiss should be able to take care of themselves. The SWISS government should back the loans.

What unmitigated gall.

Screw the bastards.

yeah, thats that with the swiss. Only cheese in their head.

Swiss emmenthal

stevieo:

From http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1292008_F...osures_2007.asp
"during 2007, more than 2.2 million foreclosure filings were logged against 1.3 million properties nationwide" so their 7% number probably means a little over 4% of homes. The rest are second mortgages, helocs, etc.

thanks for that...didn't even think of seconds and HELOCs.

A foreclosure is not a default. They are two entirely different things, and the stats are entirely different. A default may or may not lead to foreclosure. 1.3 million homes is a lot less than 4% of the total number of homes with mortgages. The foreclosure rate is probably around 1% or less nationally. Many homes, if not most that are in default will eventually go to foreclosure, so I would expect that number to rise dramatically in the months ahead.

DJ Fed Accepts $15 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $15 Bln
Total submitted: $85.5 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.247 Bln
Total submitted: $25.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.08%
Weighted Average: 3.08%
High-rate submitted: 3.1%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.505 Bln
Total submitted: $25.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.85%
Weighted Average: 2.86%
High-rate submitted: 2.9%
Low-rate submitted: 2.55%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $9.248 Bln
Total submitted: $34.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.13%
Weighted Average: 3.16%
High-rate submitted: 3.19%
Low-rate submitted: 3%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Trade deficit down. Maybe it's due to decreased purchases from ChinaMart.

I guess its bullish

Bull<->Bear phoria cycles are bipolar-on-crack now. Bullphoria took a coupla days. I still think we got legs to 1400-1410. Dip buying CNH calls at 45-46 has been profitbale three times. I think ag has a base now.

Gonna nibble on HUI index calls and XAU biggies at the open, absent any major noise ...

Maybe I had no business doing that... What I did was compare the percent of forclosure filings (2.2M) vs. number of homes involved (1.3M). So about 40% of the filings are second filings on the same property. That article says 7% of loans are in default, so I guessd that it might only mean 4% of homes had a loan in default. (Although I suspect this is really the delinquency rate based on that second article.) Is it safe to assume that defaults follow roughly the same pattern of 40%?

Anyway, the main thing is the 7% number of loans is overstating the number of people in trouble.

Doc- If Shorty starts writing a blog I think that he should name it "Crapbox Corner" Just a thought! Brick

closed short EUR/JPY and flipped long at 158.35

FX- I'm as bearish as the next guy but not so much right now! If the Transpo's break out I will be Intermediate term bullish. They are very close.Also check out this chart! Just my personal opinion of course!Good Trading! Brick

Brick,

im already long Dow at 12551, see page 1.

not very comfortable with it, but we will see.

GS down in the early going

FX- Sorry. Just saw the first post!

Gold bouncing around in a tightening wedgie! Whatever way she breaks should be a big move!Trend is still up but not convincingly so right now. It may follow Platinum and spike up to $1000 for its annual spring high and then take the summer off!

Today is the day the big Treasury bomb hits.

Based on the size of the 14 day repo, the Fed is stepping up to the plate here. The question is whether they will strike out, hit a home run, or something in between.

The qqqq says bombs away.

Foxy I have EUR/USD on thin ice here...below 1.4550 and all hell could break loose downside....honor your stops on that EUR/JPY

CCJ at 36.35....up over 1 buck.
Left a boat load of cash selling those March 35 Calls right at the close.

Sometime i need to have more aggressive targets on options.

It has dropped to the 8 day cycle MA at 44.44.

That's enough to put 3 day cycle indicators firmly on sell side, 5 day on the cusp.

If bullz fail to follow thru here today, would be bearish IMO

spx and dia 3 day cycle indicators went into trending mode yesterday- flat at a high level. But there are serious negative divergences. push will come to shove as they pull back to test the 3 day cycle MAs at 12481 and 1359.78

qqqq 5 hr cycle projection looks 44.25-.30

DJ Fed Accepts $13 Bln In 7-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $13 Bln
Total submitted: $77.1 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.158 Bln
Total submitted: $25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.13%
Weighted Average: 3.15%
High-rate submitted: 3.15%
Low-rate submitted: 2.95%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $9.842 Bln
Total submitted: $24.65 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.95%
Weighted Average: 2.98%
High-rate submitted: 3.02%
Low-rate submitted: 2.7%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $27.45 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.19%
Low-rate submitted: 3.05%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

SRS already pushin it up again, above 112-113 area now and she could start to rumble

GS just not feeling very well..it is the area of the big air pocket potential

short Dow and EUR(JPY now, tought day, tight range in the morning, should lead to a bigger move now.

Shorty-

your blog is set up. Please PM me.

Still watching NQ 1800...if bears retake that, the steak may be ready to be turned, and put a nice char broil on the other side

Above today's high now and we will prolly scream higher

DJ Fed Accepts $8.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $8.25 Bln
Total submitted: $47.35 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $9.2 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.15%
Low-rate submitted: 3%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $8.25 Bln
Total submitted: $20.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.1%
Weighted Average: 3.1%
High-rate submitted: 3.1%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $17.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 3.2%
Low-rate submitted: 3.05%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

The Fed is really going pedal to the metal here to cover that $43 billion Treasury bomb.

As Da Brick pointed out, this is important pivot area more intermediate term....

The setup is there to turn it over, but if da bullz prevail, we could see quite a bit higher prices...

NLR gapped above resistance - adding to position

Saw a great valentine’s day card:

What’s in a name?
That by which we call a rose by any other name
would still cost twice as much on Valentine’s day.

Kind of like the Trashury begging for it today.

Hammerin Hank and Helo Ben getting ready to storm the hill! Sit back,pour yourself a drink and let the 3 ring circus begin!