Looks like the up phase is still intact. Weak, but intact. Can they hold it together again next week?

super bearish

GTFO NOW

I believe 23.00007 % in what Im about to post.....I mean it!

Yesterday,on K-vision, I saw this cute little old lady being interviewed on what she thought the market was going to become...

She analysed three charts in a rather charming and easily understood manner.

But most importantly was her market sumarising statement::

"I'd rather be on the outside wishing I were in,rather than being on the inside wishing I were out...best stand aside"....

There are reasons for listening very carefully to charming little old ladies looking like the mountan innocents of yore who were annualy burnt, one at a time, at the stake, for practicing witchcraft...

They seemed to know so much, as if posessing omniscience, leaving the hillbilly sherlocks with only one conclusion: that they were in league with El Diablo himself..

Inhabiting an epoch easily labled Pre-scientific we sort of have to foregive these brooding pyromaniacal merry makers..

But cutting to the chase,the REAL reason for their apparent omniscience was their power to hear and organise GOSSIP that they overheard throughout the realm....

Analogously, the K-visioned Old Lady, still alive and what's more, still reputable enough to get on national broadcasting, compels me to pay attention....

And Why? Because these speculating miniatures lack the masculine Gene of "Always wanting to be right ? and its corresponding vanity...

So,
If I were a trader given to action oriented recklessness (and who is toally excluded from this class?), I would listen to this woman and her mantra:STEP ASIDE.....

beardrech: Let fools rush in where.......

3.5 Billion shares on OpEX? This is SUPER BEARISH indeed, because it means that Pigmen are not holding any stocks---nothing, so there is no need to square any positions. The rally last hour was just technical as shorts were closing positions before the long weekend. I think that Doc pointed out before that once shorts cover, there is absolutely nothing left now to support this market. And just like most indicators do not work in a bear market neither does price as volume is the single most important thing in a bear market.

The next TRAP you experience will be accompnied by the sounds:

Attention America;blue light Sovriegn Wealth Special Available on Devil's Isle; just behind the towels and toiletries...

Everything,Amerigos, I mean everything, is for sale including that little ball of uneaten substance that is currently your "Soul"...

Don't cry; In this world (Wall Street, Corner of EA Poe boulevard) has its price and eventually we all have to pay the Piper..

I mean,even at Birth we became horribly indebted by owing the Cosmos a Death...

And dont you worry your little heads about being able to repay that Debt...Because in that naborhood,DEADBEAT has an entirly different meaning, as opposed to its more mundane above ground definition....

beardrech Death: Natures way of telling us to slow down...Bierce

Check out how fast this is increasing every month.

pulled this purdy picture off a post on clearstation; sorry, no link.

several interesting bits to the chart. check out the aroon (50) oscillator--jibes with the "we's in a bayer aspirin mahkit" sentiment.

and when 1320 eventually breaks, ~1160 looks to be the next meaningful rest stop. there we can stretch our legs (all four o' them), take a whiz and shit in the woods, maul a snack deer, guzzle a bear beer, cross-dress like a bull, etc.
[attachmentid=95746]

the builder collapse on the Sunshine Coast gets uglier by the day.

The whole thing looks like a ponzi scheme run by 'wealth creation' companies.

Out of Staters buying houses 'off' the plan.

RPC project linked to cricketer

Failed building giant Real Property Constructions has been linked to a residential project managed by former cricketer Craig McDermott’s private company, Maxen Developments.

RPC has built dozens of homes at the Fraser Waters Beachside Estate project at Toogoom in Hervey Bay, and had more under construction when the company collapsed just over a week ago.

Onsite Direct – one of the ‘wealth creation’ companies named by Housing Minister Robert Schwarten in state parliament on Wednesday in connection with RPC’s demise - is selling property in the Fraser Waters Estate.

“There are a number of wealth creation companies, marketing companies and investment companies involved - companies which had a relationship with Dennis Musca, who would find him customers,” Mr Jennings said this week.

“About two thirds of those customers are not living in the area.”

http://www.thedaily.com.au/news/2008/feb/1...nked-cricketer/

Nice headline ...
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/artic...5/BIZ/802150373

Inflation is seeping its way into every nook and crany of the OZ economy.

I doubt too many small business operators will be able to pass on the cost increases.

I suspect most small business models are not viable.



Overcapcacity,coupled with rising costs at a time when people need to tighten their belts.What a combination.



Trouble brews as inflation stirs

CLEAR a space as the waiter brings the latte and your plate of eggs on wholegrain toast, and ponder what it will cost next year. When the bill arrives today, you'll probably turn out $3.50 for the coffee and $9 for the food and, briefly, you'll double-check the numbers.

Enjoy what might feel like small change now because prices are rising. Underlying inflation is 3.5% and economists expect it might hit 4.5% by the end of the year just as everyone gets ready for Christmas.

By then, your mortgage rate may have been increased twice on top of the seven adjustments to official rates since March 2005, and you still have to account for rising petrol and grocery prices.

If you get your act together, you will clip your wallet and vow to cut back on indulgences. But how you respond to tighter conditions will affect owners of small businesses, such as this busy cafe-restaurant.

Hunter Barton owns Cafe Lagom in suburban Armadale. Ask him about inflationary pressures and he cites cost pressures that seep into almost every item on the menu.

http://business.theage.com.au/trouble-brew...80215-1sjn.html

As good as it gets.

Yet house prices are still defying gravity.



Bank write-downs feared, earnings in doubt

But this week's Commonwealth Bank interim result was different because of what was said — bad debts were mounting quickly on the balance sheet of Australia's biggest bank — and because of what was not said.

No one uttered the phrase that had become standard rhetoric over recent years whenever banks deliver their numbers. No one said: "As good as it gets."

Real, calculable fear has hit the Australian banking sector. Rising interest rates and weaker investment markets are finally driving companies to the wall. Analysts are lining up to cut earnings estimates across the banks. Talk has begun to circulate of huge write-downs to come.



Analysts are calling an end to the Goldilocks years, when everyone could meet their bills, and the beginning of something more dangerous. The fear is worsened because no one can say how bad things might get.

"No one knows how this cycle will look," writes Westpac chief economist Bill Evans in an email. "The credit crisis is worsening and a continuation of that trend would stress highly geared companies."

It is easy to carve out a doomsday scenario where debts start falling over. Australian companies are thought to have learnt the perils of debt in the commercial property crash of the 1990s. Yet CBA's troubles are tied up with corporate loans.

Its book includes Centro, MFS and Allco, all of which have become market pariahs in the subprime shake-out.

http://business.theage.com.au/bank-writedo...80215-1sjl.html

sold my qid once we started to slip, about a 2% gain, which for me in this market was not shabby.. will look to re-enter after a short rally. will love this position in this massive mudslide we all have been waiting for. enjoy your long weekend see you guys tuesday... enjoy the weather were your at, lookin for 82 here in Gainesville tom.....

MC

Beardrech's in exceptional form this afternoon. Great posts -- both of them.

As I mentioned on IDS, I have small short position which I am going to add to on any pop.
I wonder how far they can go before they shut the place down. I am sure there will a pop up before they pull the plug.

house prices are still rising in OZ.

Imagine the carnage when house prices start to fall.

Repossessions soar as homeowners start to feel pain

QUEENSLAND homeowners are increasingly going under and losing their properties as the mortgage crunch claims more casualties with each rate rise.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...730-952,00.html

Take those blinders off, bears! Lose that doom and gloom attitude. There's lots of good news out there in the housing sector, e.g., South Dakota sales UP 8.9% YOY!!! Source -- and don't spoil it by looking at any of the other states

still green on my USU dong. anticipated chop and maybe a weak rally or two should allow me to exit greener.

It was a good day, it was a bad day......


If the market keeps going like it's going I'm going to have to quit my dayjob.

I had 'em, I left the computer, I missed 'em, I got to a computer too late to get 'em, I missed 'em, life goes on...



Looks like I'm doomed to a life of getting whipsawed for 25% gains (in two hours, but who's counting?)


It's Friday, let's party like we're coming and going.....

They got me coming, gniog em tog yeht.

More of the same...




If you're running in sync with the zigs, the world is your burger




if not, you sell at $37.20, put an order in at $36.00, watch it fall to $36.06,

and never get your fill....

But I had a good week, so I'm smilin'

moved to regular forum

Due to budgetary constraints, the Economic Indicators service http://www.economicindicators.gov will be discontinued effective March 1, 2008.

I am hearing from some friends that the auction rate certificates are failing consistently now. I understand one corporation purchased $200 million and are unable to get their money back. The credit situation seems to be getting worst very quickly

Nuthin' but air on all time frames below today's pivot low...here's a look at the 60 min YM...

As long as we stay under the 12,450 battle zone, bombs away likely...above 12,450 and the whole structure will start to turn up...shouldn't have to wait much longer for big move now....

Some comments from Mr Sinclair on bullion and shares.

Dear Alex,

This is what few of the present gold share holders and hedge fund operators understand.

From 1970 to 1979 on balance the entire junior gold and silver category lagged gold and silver themselves until it was obvious that both metals were going ballistic. The junior precious metals then outperformed gold and the major gold shares.

As each Angel is taken out we draw closer and closer to the same action of the junior gold shares as was true in February of 1979.

The hedge fund operators are long the gold share majors and gold ETFs and short every junior under the assumption that the gold share leaders and gold itself will outperform the gold juniors.

Soon they will experience February 1979 and screw up their spread badly.

The more emotional and disillusioned emails I get the nearer we are to that point of a significant, immediate and violent up move.

I am a man of patience, but also an elephant hunter.

Study the chart of Hecla below, as it was almost the same action with every gold and silver junior from 1970 to 1979.

Regards,
Jim

http://www.jsmineset.com/home.asp

I didn't realise there was a 'clutching at straws' stage to these real estate cycles..

I'll Buy Your House If You Buy Mine

Eager to move closer to their grandchildren in Tennessee, retirees Allen and Wilma Sawtelle put their home in the Southwestern Nevada town of Pahrump up for sale in August. They got nowhere. "The market is just dead," says Mr. Sawtelle. At their open house, he says, "I think one guy came, and he'd been drinking."
(sounds like the agent.. )

Poking around the Internet for home-selling tips, Mr. Sawtelle, a 71-year-old former investigator for a law firm, discovered that anxious sellers like him are trying a new tactic: connecting with other sellers who might agree to "swap" -- or buy one another's property. The Sawtelles found a couple who were looking to move to Nevada, and whose house for sale was within driving distance of their grandchildren.

The concept of trading homes temporarily for vacations has long existed, but now it's being adapted to the slumping real-estate market as people, particularly in the Sunbelt and other slow spots, scout for ways to unshackle themselves from their property. Anecdotal evidence suggests the number of people doing this is still relatively small, but it has popped up from virtually nothing in recent years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/artic...k5ZnhQ9iApO7sMF

MaSSive Wealth Creation and Joy from Housing Dip
Some U.S. Americans are racking up tremendous profits from the minor dippy-doo in house prices. Others are enjoying a return to a happier, simpler lifestyle.

The shit has finally started to hit home.

It is regrettable that I am going to share this story with you. I thought I have done all that I can to warn friends and family about what is happening in the economy and markets. Apparently it is not enough. Realistically, there is no way to avoid this.

My best friend from college is president of his family business. They make chalk boards, marker boards, computer stands, and some miscellaneous furniture.

My friend’s mom started the business, built it up, and was ready to retire. They debated over the future of the company last year. I thought I was helping him to decide to sell as a “last chance” before the economy collapsed. Even though they are not consumer dependant, corporate spending on their products was bound to fall as the consumer died. They decided it was the right time to sell.

Great. His mom has a great success story and now she can retire with wads of cash and easy living ahead of her. My friend, however, was required to keep half of his shares invested while he continued his employment. That’s the good news.

When my friend found himself with cash from the sale of half his stock, he didn’t know what to do with it. I advised him to (1) buy gold (2) keep the rest in cash for the time being, and (3) if possible, diversify into Swiss a/o Euro denominated assets. This was in Q3 and Q4. I have told him everything I could about what was happening with the economy and especially the credit markets. I even shared some of Doc’s missives and suggested he subscribe. He appreciated the insight. Every time I talked with him he said he was in cash. He never bought gold or divested into foreign currencies, but at least he told me he was in cash.

Until today. Today he called because he has $5m at Goldman Sachs tied-up in a municipal bond investment. It is illiquid, and he has been told that he can’t get his money because no one will buy the municipal bonds. His money is in limbo.

I had to offer sympathy and hope that GS will absorb the loss. Maybe they will. Maybe someone else will bail it out. I hope so. Otherwise, half of his life’s work and savings will go down the drain. He has a short timeframe also, because his taxes on the sale are due in a couple of months. He doesn’t have the cash, and can’t get it. I am pissed at him and this whole situation.

His money was invested in the Philadelphia school system which was paying 12%. He is an idiot for not recognizing that that high rate of return carried commensurate risk. He swears the financial advisor at GS told him it was “as safe as cash.” He also says he has the documents to prove those claims. He is getting a lawyer and barking loudly, but the fact still remains he can’t get his money.

You can spare me the ridicule for his stupidity. I know it and he now knows it now. What no one knew, however, was that this problem would finally hit home.

I could care less about the idiots that are in financial trouble because they are over-extended on home-related loans. I know quite a few of those stories and the numbers are growing. But when a best friend takes half of his life’s work, cashes it in, and tries to be smart and safe (he really thought he was safe and in a liquid position), I can’t help but feel sympathy for him and anger towards an ignorant financial advisor.

My advice is to do what you can to persuade people whom you care about to cut their risk on all investments. This shit will hit home eventually, right or wrong. GYMTFO NOW! Find a safe bank (if there is such a thing), get some gold and some cash on hand now, and pray that the contagion doesn’t spread. FWIW, I don’t think the praying part matters much, as the contagion is feeding upon itself and it doesn't appear that it can be stopped.

Now I know your pain, MD. Porter. Let’s spread the word and hope others can dodge the bullets.

For the last year or so I have pointedly told anyone in my family who cared to ask that the only place they should have their money is in a Treasury only MMF, preferably at Vanguard, or in FDIC insured CDs, for now. These are unsophisticated people.

I now think we have gone beyond even that! We are now entering the cash in the mattress stage. I am terrified and appalled at the rate at which US Givermint finances are collapsing.

I don't know how this happened, but it seems that shorty has started a blog for his own self!!!! http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/mantle

Hey wonderful stuff shorty. You make me laugh every day. Your comments are among the best I have seen on the net (both for humor & insight).

This is the kind of thing that revolutions are eventually made of. I feel horrible for your friend, but i suspect the prospects are not great. If this is the front end of this phenomena, the investment houses will defend the ramparts vehemently until their collusion is obvious to all. Unless the market loosens, it will cost your friend 7 figures to get the five mill back.

Here is Lehman doing the EXACT same thing to the Maher brothers for 200 Million:



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1202954399...=googlenews_wsj

The timing on that isn't suspicious.


Un-frickin believable.

If you would like to register for the board, because of the spam problem the quickest way to get approved is to shoot me an email an let me know the user name you have registered with. That will help me in identifying and validating your registration. For best results use an email address from a known isp. If your isp is in Russia or Eastern Europe, it's a real problem. We'll send you a confirming email with a few questions. Don't even bother using any email address from gmail, or yahoo.uk. Sorry about that.

contact me at drstool at capitalstool.com using the standard email address format with the @ and no spaces.

How much do you plan to hold under the mattress?

I want this option in my brokerage account.

The money under the matress (MUM) fund.

Sell the house sell the car sell the kids sell the dog sell the goldfishy sell sell sell!

A weekend observation: Lady Fokker rescued a couple of issues of "Town and Country" magazine from the recycling bin at our apartment, and I perused it this AM with my breakfast.

What is it about rich fokkers that makes them have such gawd-awful gaudy taste? From these horrrendous diamond-encrusted Rolexes to weird useless-looking purses to museum-cum-houses to weird food-less dishes with the sauce poured everywhere but on the little bit of food in the center...

I think it's an indication of a mASSive top in this current inflationary binge that the richie-riches have completely jumped the shark and lost any vestige of taste or proportion. When the prevailing style has become Celine-Dion-Vegas-Extravaganze, I think it's time to sell.

Hey! Watch it, you Anglophone Kweebecker you!

Insulting Celine!

How DARE you!!!!

what about T Bills from Treasury Direct?

I appreciate - I'm sure we all appreciate - you sharing your friend's story, Chi-townBear. It is an incredible story - almost unbelievable. It's difficult to fathom where this is all headed.....

OK, so I was exaggeratin' just a bit. But as far as holding T-bills at the Treasury or in Vanguard, whatever suits your fancy. I don't think the USG is quite on the verge of default yet, but they are going to have to find ways to increase revenues and cut outlays real fast. We can't have both guns and butter. The choice we face is which one we'd rather have.

actually I think it is believable. my two friends from work, who have been indoctrinated by my bear view of the stock market, RE market and economy in general, do what they have been "trained" to do for years anyway.
They catch falling knives - because Crapvision expert says market overreacted - other has been looking to buy a second house - look how much the seller lowered the price. or the latest - I hear gold is going to be a good investment because Fed has been pumping.

old habits die hard

Doc, is checking account better than MM Savings instead of mattress ?

Thanks

I don't see any serious problem as long as your balances are less than the FDIC coverage. When banks start blowing up is when I want to accumulate actual paper cash in quantity. But there's no difference between a checking account or CD in terms of safety. I still think that the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund is where I want to have the bulk of my assets. Those guys are cheap tightwads, conservative as hell. They never bought into the SIV crap even in their non Treasury MMFs.

Of course, if we get to the Mad Max phase, my main holdings will be a basement full of Dinty Moore Beef stew, and the canned vegetables that I grew in my garden during spring and summer.

I'll definitely get out of Florida, which I expect to be one of the epicenters of the societal breakdown. Since no one in the northern tier will be able to afford to heat their homes with gas or oil, a horde of broke, hungry, freezing migrants will probably descend on Florida to squat in the ramshackle abandoned condo complexes that dominate the landscape.

There will be hundreds of squeegee men at every intersection accosting the few who can still afford to drive, and who can find fuel.

I'm surrounded by farms where I live in Canada. I'll have to bone up on the ag commodities so that I can advise those guys in their hedging activities in return for a nice supply of milk and cheese. I'll get a few chickens for the eggs, and let a few of them hatch so that I can butcher then for eating next season. We're less than a mile from the river, so we can eat a lot of fresh fish, and if we have a consistent source of power freeze it for the winter. We can also ice fish in the winter.

Given that our energy source is government owned hydro, I suspect that we'll be ok in that regard.

I just hope that I'm far enough away from the city to be out of range of the plundering hordes.

don't forget the guns doc

My 80 year old next door neighbor has a hunting rifle. They trapped a groundhog our back yard and took it into his garage and shot it.

I was mad as hell. That groundhog was just the cutest thing.

why hold all this cash at home .. when if the banks collapse who says that paper will be worth anything ... is it not better to stock up on canned foods and such ?

im being serious ?

thats more like it ... this will be interesting to see unfold. i await ....