Triple-digits!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/oil/

Dow futures about as wound up as they come..........

If DAX goes above 7060 tomorrow morning i go tits long. Maybe only for daytrade because it gets reversed when the US opens We will see.

Generally it is a dream these days for short term traders. Almost every day nice swings. You just have to trade 14 hours a day like me

Just waiting for financial integrity to become compromised and the flood gates to be opened.....again.........

[attachmentid=95826]

CCJ broke through the 50dma today and held, I am going to hold a little while longer.

Here are some thoughts from Mish on this.

There is a stunning ability for the equity markets to shake off bad news after bad news. Meanwhile the underlying credit markets continue to deteriorate. Both cannot be correct. This divergence will end, we just do not know when. The odds are overwhelming that the credits markets have this correct.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Still holding PBT but getting nervous. It's currently paying a 12% dividend according to yahoo finance. I've held it for two years now.

ATH close on GLD shares today.

looks as though it's not yet time for the swirling flush. i'll jump into inverse ETFs another day.

in the meantime, this seems to picking itself up off the floor:
[attachmentid=95829]

That chart looks extended.

No wonder there is such a mess. Are these the kind of people that all that money was lent to?

http://prisonplanet.com/articles/february2...0208_b_dumb.htm

compare a 2 year olds knowledge of geography to every one else. This would be hilarious if it was not so sad.

Just a thought...

Gold, oil, and the stock market have traded in tandem to the upside for over 5 years. Gold and Oil have broken new highs recently with tremendous weakness in the stock market. I'm wondering if the decoupling that started late last year is the real deal or is this market simply buying time for the next leg up. If it's next leg up then there's a lot of catching up to do in stocks.

Someone asked me why did I think that today's action was extremely bearish.

For starters, the pump started at 2PM and lasted about 30min until 2:30PM. This coincided with Fed release of FOMC minutes which is nothing but a temporary "pump monkey" shenanigans. The second major reason is the volume, again on the light side this indicatives to me of "walking the market higher", which will end up with ferocious selling similar to last year post 10/9/07 top. However, the difference being is that everyone now is expecting it and is waiting for higher prices to sell or short into. To me it means one thing only -- an unexpected trap, sooner than later.

OIH (Energy stocks)
They need to turn this thing around ASAP for energy bears. This looks very bullish.

Disclaimer: I'm long May 40 TSO calls today.

That double bottom action on the OIH chart reminded me of GLD 2 years back.
I remembered all well because Richard Russell told his subscribers to cut back on gold stocks on that 2nd dip.

Hope you are right linrom because I have selectively been building short positions here.

There is no base building in evidence so the rally did smack of a hasty stop running short squeeze. I am not sure why Madness thinks we could be in for ramp lasting weeks though I guess it could be argued the mkt is still somewhat Dover Sole on an intermediate term basis - but that would be on a bull mkt basis not a bear one.

Overweight on the miners here for the next few months might be wise.

Sorry folks, i didn't get a chance to elaborate why i think we'll get a jam. My few posts on this board might have summed it up. I'm thinking this gold & oil move is saying something. The rest of the market might just follow.

Then again..i know what to do if things don't go my way.

Derby,

I hope none of those morans ever get their hands on the 'bomb'.

They will blow Australia off the map...

Doc...thanks for the tip on the triangles/pennants this morning...had in my head the direction of resolution, but not the extent. Appreciate it.

I have read, no link, but they have a lot of hedges plus their main property is in Boliva.

that second video was unreal....I laughed so hard I spit up coffee through my nose....our country is phucked, no wonder the political or financial system will never change....most of the population is completely in the dark

yeah, Germany is in the "axis of evil" and Fidel Castro is..... yes, you guessed it: A SINGER!

but honestly, some interviews of that tape are made up. At least, i hope so.

I guess you weren't around in the 70s. Massive bull markets in energy and natural resources. Everything else was complete K-rap.



Everyone has this idea that stock prices are "telling us something" about something else, like the economy, or the price of another kind of stock. Stock prices don't "say" anything about anything. Except themselves of course. They make patterns, and from those patterns we can deduce what they are likely to do beyond this point.

But it's really dangerous to make these assumptions beyond that. Just because one group moves, that does not imply anything about what another group will do. The correlations are really haphazard. It's amazing that conventional wisdom in this regard is so ingrained. People actually think that the stock market "knows something."

It's ridiculous. It's religious faith with no basis in fact. People believe it because they choose to. But it's absolute nonsense. The only thing stock prices tell us is how much extra liquidity is in the system, or how scarce liquidity is. That ties in with psychology. They feed on each other. Psychology weakens when liquidity dries up, which tends to make psychology even weaker. But there will be no real turn in the broad market unless liquidity is expanding. Certain groups that are in favor can move, but a lack of liquidity will limit the moves to those groups. Groups which are moving tend to get all the love.

None of which is to say that I am or am not bullish at the moment. For that, people will have to read the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition. If you count the number of longs and the number of shorts among the chart picks, that should tell you all you need to know.

And the total number of picks will tell you how strong my convictions are. A scale of 1 to 10 would fit nicely.

When last we looked at copper, a few weeks ago, the LME warehouse stocks were just dropping through the 200,000 tonnes level. Those levels have continued to drop.



Recently the price has started to respond..



Now, the question is, can it break through resistance this time around?

I don't think they were made up. Lots of Americans pay little attention to world events. I think most of the interviewees were some of our more ignorant folks. The interviews look loke they were done in an inner city area-- where one is likely to find quite a few drug addicts. Even so, they must have found some knowledgeable people in the crowd and just edited those out.

Polling organizations have done surveys on this stuff. Most Americans are pretty ignorant about geography and history.

But they are really good with video games and entertainment trivia, so it balances out.

Nice interview with Jeremy Grantham

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120251...267.html?page=1

Sadly, they are not or at least you can find a lot of people with that level of knowledge.

We must be approaching some sort of top. Nobody here tonight.

They may have secretly put on their bull horns, but now they can't get through the door.

Seller's exhaustion.

It is unusually quiet. Calm before the storm?

This guy's hilarious! http://www.jonlajoie.com

isn't this how the sub prime mess started in the US.


Lenders launch 50 repossession notices a week

SPECIAL REPORT: BANKS say they are not at fault for more than 50 homeowners a week being hit with repossession notices, some after missing a few repayments.

Association chief David Bell said non-bank lenders were "irresponsible" and their lending practices had been behind the increase, and major banks comprised only a small proportion of delinquencies, he told 3AW radio today.

"The major difference between banks and other lenders is that banks are very careful about lending money.


http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,2...714-661,00.html

Northa Mericans are out watching the eclipse.

It's almost complete ( full dark ) right now.

I'm not much of a chartist, but, leaving out Friday afternoon and the missing Monday, I see lower highs and lower lows for the last week in the big indices. Also, today's pop covered yesterday's opening gap. Not that this is worth much. The trend seems sideways and pretty tight, except for those 10 minute pops. As long as it stays like this, I'll just keep trying to nick lunch money on the down turns. More afraid to go long, waiting for the other shoe to drop. (Which brings to mind Imelda Marcos' closet.) Then again, too many bears are afraid or waiting for the big bounce. Have to believe the bulls are the same--afraid and waiting for the big drop. It's like Jaws was seen in the waters, and the brave are willing to dip a toe, but noone's jumping in here from either side of the pool.

i believe she was a millipede.

But what does it mean?





Other than that the general consensus of what I found is that lunar eclipses aren't particularly important wen guiding the direction of financial markets....

Best of luck in your trading.

Uhm... Is that near Utopia? Maybe the 2 year old in the video knows.

I am

Did you read Russels latest today--if not you should,....

Beardrech

brief summary?
please

Dharma

Theres nothing spectacularly new in what hes saying so much as it is a nice resume of the history of Gold's recent past...

He gently refers to Americans gold ignorance just like Doc resumes their knowledge of pre-Columbus' Geography..

Also theres a cute little suggestiion on the pedagogical use of one of his charts, that will enable you to persuade one or two of your more ignorant friends or nabors about the virtues of gold....

And an indication about golds bullish destiny being many years to go

Things like that

beardrech

Doc

My wife was (is?) a trained zoologist. A few of her courses were taught by a Professor Ginsburg who trained wolves into becoming pusillanimous wusses and alternately, rabbits into becoming viscious little carrot eating bastards..

To see how malleable and docile wild beasts were...

One of the attributes he encouraged his students to develope, while they were working in his lab, was to cultivate a rather unscientific anthropomorphism ,which translated, meant for the students to use human verbiage in describing their behaviour..he felt that using a purely scientific jargon would efface the more subtle niceties of animal conduct..

Now granted watching gauges in a powerhouse without attributing human motivation to them is warranted....

Similarly I agree with you that trying to put the accents of Lawrence Olivier on Stock charts and cycles is rather feckless....but, at the same time,metaphorically speaking, trying to surgically sever "gut responses" is, as you well know, practically impossible...No matter how hard we try, there will always be a residue of subjectivism in all of our judgements and decisions..

As evidence for the above,Time and again, we all, from time to time, invoke the trinity of "should,coulda,woulda" certifying the presence this deathless infirmity...

So the questioin then becomes: In what way can I put a face on this disposition so that I dont fall victim to its disturbing insurgencies???? Something like taming a wolf....

And by the way, we are very lucky that we have limits on our ability towards emotional self-mutilation....lest we enjoy the life of an occupational zombie

beardrech I keyed on exxon, and was about to make my move short, and I almost pulled the trigger, when this sumabittch removed the stake from my heart....G'damn him and may he go to heaven where he belongs...

maybe we rally from here.

They did have Fleck on Gloomberg today.

Doc, i've pointed at the relationship for the past 5 years and it is what it is. Gold, oil and the Dow took turns hitting new highs during this span. We saw "all time" highs across the board in the past year. I'm not not making any assumptions. You can pull up the charts. You can't have it both ways big guy, one minute you ask that folks don't make assumptions, but then you'll refer the action of the 70s to discredit what i'm merely interpreting on the charts over the past 5 years. You think this is burger king..."have it your way"..
Just teasing you a bit.

p.s.
I still think we are on the mist of a multi month rally here.

AUSTRALIAN BANKS

Have had a very nice sell off.

Will it continue.

Maybe later when the housing bust hits the fan but smells like counter rally time.

Too late to short now, short term long a better bet.

Some good values creeping into Australian stocks.

Perpetual even ASX.