http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Up today, what a surprise... All Ords +1.2% with IT taking a turn in the lead, +2.6% followed by Consumer Discretionary, +2.5%. Energy, -0.5%, is the only red sector thanks to Santos.

Reasonable rises in the miners: BHP +0.6%, RIO +1.3%. Golds: Newcrest +2.5%, Newmont +1.5% and Lihir +2.1%. Juniors flat to up.

In the oils, Santos has done a mega drop, -9.8%, Woodside +1.6% and Caltex +0.9%.

Basically a sideways lurch intraday. All Ords couldn't quite make up its mind regarding direction but managed to close in an up phase, +1.5%. Most of the sectors had reasonably strong gains led by Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples, both +2.9%. Property Trusts was the only red, -0.8%.

Relatively minor gains on the big 2: BHP +0.8% and RIO +1%. Golds did much better, Newcrest +2.7%, Newmont +2.2% and Lihir +4%. Juniors failed to ignite, closing mixed.

In the oils, Santos, -9%, had a heavy down day after an announcement regarding reduced profits and a production cut for 2008. Woodside closed +2.5% and Caltex +1.2%.

Over in Asia, Nikkers rebounded from yesterday, +3.2%, Honkers +1.3% and China -1.2%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Many miners look like they are about to turn up.

Gold broke thru yest high.

Yes, I'm hoping this gold price move might finally light a fire under the juniors...traders have been very slow to get on board...

in 15 min UK retail sales, very important for GBP.

What Doc and Russ were talking about:

Corporate Defaults May Rise at Chinese Banks on Curbs

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese banks face higher bad-loan ratios for the first time since 2003 as corporate defaults may increase because of tighter credit controls and weakening demand from a slowing U.S. economy, Standard & Poor's said.

The government is clamping down on loan growth after China's cabinet identified overheating and inflation as two major risks facing the country's economy this year.

The central bank raised interest rates six times last year and has boosted the proportion of deposits lenders must hold as reserves to 15 percent, the highest in more than 20 years. It has also sold bills to drain cash from the financial system and ordered banks to curb lending.

The overall bad-loan ratio at domestic banks dropped to 6.17 percent by the end of last year, down from 19.6 percent in June 2003, according to China Banking Regulatory Commission. China has spent about $500 billion bailing out its biggest lenders over the past decade by carving out their soured debt and injecting capital.

good UK retail numbers: +0.8% (+0.3% expected), GBPUSD shot up 100 pips, now fighting with the 50 fibo.

People are asking questions about TIOs again. TIOs are very short term loans by the Treasury when it has received tax receipts that it does not need immediately.

The TIOs have no impact whatsoever on the market. They are simply a means of delaying the collection of tax receipts for a few days. They neither add to, nor subtract from liquidity in the system. Those who make a lot of noise about the TIOs simply do not know what they are talking about. TIOs are generally aligned with temporary Treasury debt paydowns. They are made available when the Treasury has excess cash from tax receipts. The cash comes in from the banking system to the Treasury one day, is returned to it the next day via the TIO, and then flows back to the Treasury a few days later when the TIO expires. If the TIOs are so important why does no one discuss the potential drain on the system when they expire? Because there is none? Businesses collect taxes, pay them, get some of the money back for a few days, and then give it back to the Treasury which then spends it, sending it back to the banking system. Businesses know exactly how much they are collecting, what their liability is, what their revenues are etc. so there's just no overall impact on the banking system, and especially on the market.

There are a lot of moronic conspiracy theories out there about the TIO.

Unlike the SOMA, which flow directly to and from the trading accounts of primary dealers, any business which collects taxes for the government and has what is called a Tax and Loan account can participate. So again, it only impacts the timing of tax payments and collections and has no impact on the markets directly or indirectly.

Treasury debt paydowns, on the other hand, usually do have an impact on the market because they are direct cash payments to holders of securities who must then reinvest the proceeds in a market with temporarily insufficient paper to absorb the cash. The paydowns therefore push down interest rates on the settlement date unless the Fed acts to offset the action by withdrawing the reserves.

on tap today:

Thursday, February 21, 2008 Exp Prev
ET/GMT
0830/1330 Feb 16 Jobless Claims
Weekly Jobless Claims 349K 348K
Weekly Jobless Claims Net
Change +1K -9K
1000/1500 Feb 9 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer
Weekly Business Barometer +0.2%
1000/1500 Feb Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Business Activity -12 -20.9
1000/1500 Jan Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators
Leading Index -0.1% -0.2%
1030/1530 Feb 15 US Energy Dept Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Stocks (in barrels) +2.9M +1.1M
Gasoline Stocks (in barrels) +1M +1.7M
Distillate Stocks (in barrels) -1.5M -100K
1030/1530 Feb 16 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Inventory
Natural Gas Stocks (in billion -172 -120
cubic feet)
1630/2130 Money Supply

another day that we could see more green..... was the last pull back a gift to we get back to 13k? I think the charts built a nice short term bottom. If any one had the guts to buy it. I should held on to those qqqq calls

i wonder whats up with oil because i think inventories showed a surplus the last couple weeks ?

see wtf ??? supplies been RISING the last 6 weeks ?

Ahead of the Bell: Oil Inventory
Thursday February 21, 6:30 am ET
Traders Expect Government to Report Oil Inventories Grew Last Week for Sixth Straight Period

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Government data due out Thursday is forecast to show that crude-oil inventories rose last week for the sixth straight period.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080221/oil_invento..._bell.html?.v=1

I just got an alarm
In South African Rand my Drooy are 106% up

everybody is doing it, why can't we........


DJ UK's Brown: Northern Rock Bailout Complies With EU Rules


BRUSSELS (Dow Jones)--The U.K. government's bailout of troubled mortgage
lender Northern Rock PLC (NRK.LN) won't run foul of European Union law, U.K.
Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Thursday.

"We are absolutely satisfied it is in line with E.U. state aid rules," he
told a news conference during an official visit to the European Commission.

The U.K. government has said it will nationalize Northern Rock after the
bank collapsed amid the effects of the liquidity crisis last summer. The Bank
of England has loaned the mortgage lender an estimated GBP25 billion.

*DJ Part Of Northern Rock Bill Defeated In UK Upper House - BBC




LONDON (Dow Jones)--Part of the U.K. government's bill to nationalize
troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock PLC (NRK.LN) has been defeated in the
House of Lords, the BBC reports.

Earlier, the main U.K. opposition Conservative party's economic spokesman
George Osborne called on the government to accept an audit - a position the
other main opposition party, the Liberal Democrats, had also taken.

"I would urge you to provide a full audit of Northern Rock to be made public
as soon as possible, which I called for in the House on Tuesday, and to give
the National Audit Office access to Northern Rock's books. The taxpayer is
entitled to know what it is buying," Osborne wrote in a letter to the
Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling.


Even if they knew what they were buying, they would not understand it .....
I'm sure most of us, stoolies, would scratch our heads as well.

Let me expand on my comments to which the above refers.

This is not a matter of having it both ways, and I am not asking that anyone make assumptions about anything. I was pointing out that in the 70s we had a different set of conditions. Those conditions may be more similar to today's than the past 5 years, or they may not be similar. As a general rule, it's a bad idea to make assumptions.

This is a matter of liquidity and logic. The fact that something was true for 5 years does not mean that there was a cause and effect relationship, or that what had been the case will remain the case, because there is no cause and effect relationship, just a coincident relationship based on a causal condition which may have changed over the past 7 months.

When liquidity is expanding, that causes virtually everything to move in a bullish arc together. When liquidity is not expanding the cause of the synchronicity is no longer extant. The groups that are moving get all the love, and those that aren't getting the love get dumped so that the players can give their love to the groups that are.

So while I do not disagree with your characterization of the market's bullish potential at the moment (WSE Pro chart picks have been 100% long since 2/4) drawing the conclusion that one group will move because another is moving is a logical fallacy. They moved together for the past 5 years because liquidity was expanding. In a contracting liquidity environment they are more likely to go their separate ways.

The bullish potential for any stock group can be seen by looking at the chart of that group, or for the market, by looking at the market averages. If liquidity begins to expand again, all groups can again move more or less together. But if liquidity does not resume its expansion, in my view it is dangerous to make the assumption that one group will follow another because that assumption is based on a logical fallacy, and the conditions which allowed that fallacy to appear true may no longer exist.

qqqq is short of 3 day cycle projection of 44.70

Initial 3 day cycle projection on spx looks 1368

initial 3 day cycle projection on dow looks 12500

gdx has hit 3 day cycle projection of 51.30

Do you also track liquidity of foreign nations? Richard Russell posted the following numbers increase in money supply growth on his site yesterday:

42% in Russia
21% in India
18% in China
12% in the UK
15% in the US
8% in Canada

http://ww1.dowtheoryletters.com/dtlol.nsf

spx conditional 3 day cycle projection 1393 if they take out 1369.

Dow 3 day cycle projection now looks 12700

yup

Donged GFI yesterday @ $14

MSFT coming out with a big announcement at 11:30, unrelated to Yahoo. Wonder what it could be?

DJ Fed Accepts $11 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $11 Bln
Total submitted: $45.8 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.275 Bln
Total submitted: $11.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.97%
Weighted Average: 2.98%
High-rate submitted: 3.02%
Low-rate submitted: 2.8%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6.6 Bln
Total submitted: $13.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.72%
Weighted Average: 2.75%
High-rate submitted: 2.8%
Low-rate submitted: 2.45%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.125 Bln
Total submitted: $21.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.08%
Weighted Average: 3.09%
High-rate submitted: 3.09%
Low-rate submitted: 2.92%

DJ Fed Accepts $8 Bln In 7-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $8 Bln
Total submitted: $40.55 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $11.25 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.97%
Low-rate submitted: 2.85%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $4.454 Bln
Total submitted: $13.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.74%
Weighted Average: 2.76%
High-rate submitted: 2.78%
Low-rate submitted: 2.54%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $3.546 Bln
Total submitted: $16 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.02%
Weighted Average: 3.02%
High-rate submitted: 3.02%
Low-rate submitted: 2.94%


DJ Fed Accepts $6 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $27.3 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $6.35 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.95%
Low-rate submitted: 2.85%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6 Bln
Total submitted: $15.35 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.83%
Weighted Average: 2.83%
High-rate submitted: 2.83%
Low-rate submitted: 2.65%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: None
Total submitted: $5.6 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: N/A
Weighted Average: N/A
High-rate submitted: 2.99%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

Maybe a new OS to replace Vista (POS)

msft has so much money maybe they bought GG or NEM or ABX,,,, lol

who said short oil long semis yesterday

I do watch base liquidity in the EU and UK from time to time, although I do not track it closely. I watch a proxy in the accumulation of Treasuries and Agencies by all FCBs via the Fed's Custodial reports very closely.

I would caution against thinking that money supply data is consistent with the amount of liquidity available to the market. As Russ Winter has so elegantly demonstrated in his reports, a huge portion of the money supply figures consist of "money" backed by fictitious capital. The fact of SIVs blowing up, and Auction Rate securities auctions failing calls into question the backing of trillions of so called assets in money market funds. There is far less "money" around than the money supply data would indicated.

The recent surge in broad money supply growth in the US directly correlates with the meltdown in commercial paper, almost dollar for dollar. That's because all of the cash liquidated in the collapse of that market flowed from assets not counted in the money supply into institutional money market funds which are counted in MZM, and the "shadow M3" reported by some private economists. At the same time that was happening, the stock market was under pressure the whole time. That's because the Fed was aggressively shrinking base liquidity.

In terms of the markets, the most direct correlations exist between the direction of the monetary base and the market, in particular in the case of the US, the direction of the SOMA. This is why I track the SOMA every day, along with the actions of the Treasury and FCBs. But even here, the correlations change, and we need to stay on top of those changes. We can never assume that the Fed will continue along the direction it has been going, nor can we assume that about any other major actor in this drama. So I track and report on these things every day to give my subscribers the facts on exactly where things are currently headed, rather than rumor and unsubstantiated suppositions by the pundits.

Man you are the best
Your pig is doing 9.5% today whilst mine is doing only 6.5% today
both in Rand

Another horrible reading from Philly Fed, -24

Small net add.

I felt that here in Idaho, I live right outside Boise.

DJ UPDATE: 6.3 Magnitude Earthquake Hits Nevada


(Updates with unconfirmed reports of damage, time of incident)


RENO, Nevada (AP)--A strong earthquake has struck the northeastern area of
the state of Nevada Thursday.

The U.S. Geological Survey said the earthquake had a preliminary magnitude
of 6.3 and was reported around 6:16 a.m. local time.

It was centered in a sparsely populated area near the Nevada-Utah line.

Elko County Undersheriff Rocky Gonzalez said there are unconfirmed reports
of damage to buildings.

The temblor was felt across eastern Nevada, Utah and as far away as Southern
California.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

look at a 3min chart of USO and look at the 20 ema. It is on schedule to hit it at 10:30 right as data is released.

If the Members Count drops below 20, is that a Sell Signal ???

I also want to stress that while I believe it helps to know the liquidity backdrop it is not necessary. The charts of the market averages and individual instruments tell us all we need to know to trade successfully. I find knowing the liquidity backdrop helpful. It helps me to make sense of the charts, and make decisions about them with a higher degree of confidence, but a good experienced chart reader can do whatever needs to be done in trading by simply honing his or her skill at reading the charts. Liquidity analysis is not a sine qua non. It's just an aid, and it helps me, and I hope my subscribers, to have a better understanding of what is really going on in the financial world at large.

I don't know about the member count, but I think a total count in the 30s should be good for a real good top. Maybe the low 40s. Works better at bottoms. Anything over 120, buy with both fists.

I am sure everyone will understand a lot of money is missing.

Yeah, I don't think the money supply numbers anywhere reflect the magnitude of the writeoffs that have already occurred and the ones to come. It won't happen until these cash flows into the MMFs dry up and the emperor is revealed to be buck nekkid. Then when the runs on the funds start in earnest, that's when we will see the adjustment in the numbers.

I just think of all the "enhanced cash" institutional funds and other exotic short term securities where investors have been lucky to get back 50 cents on the dollar. That's just the tip of the iceberg.

The only honest thing to do is to pay back depositors and let the shareholders find out what they have left in their asset collum

U.S. crude inventories up 4.2 mln barrels in latest week

DJ IMF: Oil Price Spike Remains Manageable For Global Economy

this spike has lasted for a few years now.....is that still a spike?

I got lucky there with the intraday timing (for a change). But the daily chart sure looked good at the time.

3 day cycle indicators on qqqq are edging to the sell side, as price pulls back to the 3 day cycle MA at 44.19. As long as that holds, the trend is up, but if it breaks, then the pullback could carry to the 5 day cycle MA now at 43.94 or the rally could abort completely.

CNBSers It is actually good news, The FED will cut, buy the dips.

spx 3 day cycle projection now looks 1375. dow looks 12550