http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices
Full Version: IDS World Markets Tues 26th February 08
Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
Looks like All Ords might do a leg up in the short term. The index currently +0.8% with Consumer Staples taking a turn in the lead, +2.7% followed by Property Trusts +2.3%. Consumer Discretionary is the only red sector, -0.5%.
Miners stalled: BHP +0.3%, RIO flat. In the golds Newcrest -1%, Newmont -0.9% and Lihir -2.1%. Juniors flat to up.
Small rises on the oils: Woodside +1.2%, Santos +0.9% and Caltex +0.3%.
China Orders Banks to Control Securitization Risk
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China ordered banks to step up risk management when offering securitization products, the nation's industry regulator said.
China is seeking to develop its asset-backed securities and bonds market to give companies more funding options and help banks manage risk.
China Construction Bank Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, and China Development Bank, a state-owned bank that funds public works projects, were chosen in 2005 by the government for a pilot program to sell the nation's first asset- backed bonds.
---------------
Hong Kong May Offer Tax Relief and Boost Consumption
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong will probably report a record budget surplus this week, along with plans to use part of the cash to spur the economy and protect households from inflation near a decade high.
The consolidated surplus for the year ended March 31 will be HK$113 billion ($14.5 billion), according to the median estimate of 6 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The surplus will be almost twice as much as last year's HK$58.6 billion, driven by revenue from rising company profits and last year's 39 percent surge in the benchmark stock index. Now inflation and a dimmer global growth outlook are adding pressure on Financial Secretary John Tsang to help households combat rising rents and food and utility costs.
Fitch last week cut its estimate for Hong Kong's expansion this year to 4.4 percent from a 5.3 percent forecast previously. UBS AG more than halved its prediction to 2.5 percent from 5.2 percent.
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- China ordered banks to step up risk management when offering securitization products, the nation's industry regulator said.
China is seeking to develop its asset-backed securities and bonds market to give companies more funding options and help banks manage risk.
China Construction Bank Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, and China Development Bank, a state-owned bank that funds public works projects, were chosen in 2005 by the government for a pilot program to sell the nation's first asset- backed bonds.
---------------
Hong Kong May Offer Tax Relief and Boost Consumption
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong will probably report a record budget surplus this week, along with plans to use part of the cash to spur the economy and protect households from inflation near a decade high.
The consolidated surplus for the year ended March 31 will be HK$113 billion ($14.5 billion), according to the median estimate of 6 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The surplus will be almost twice as much as last year's HK$58.6 billion, driven by revenue from rising company profits and last year's 39 percent surge in the benchmark stock index. Now inflation and a dimmer global growth outlook are adding pressure on Financial Secretary John Tsang to help households combat rising rents and food and utility costs.
Fitch last week cut its estimate for Hong Kong's expansion this year to 4.4 percent from a 5.3 percent forecast previously. UBS AG more than halved its prediction to 2.5 percent from 5.2 percent.
Honda Raises January Production to Meet Higher Overseas Demand
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Honda Motor Co., Japan's second- largest carmaker, boosted global production in January to meet growing demand in emerging markets.
Honda built 340,762 vehicles in January, an increase of 7.7 percent from a year earlier, it said in a statement today. Production overseas jumped 13.3 percent, while output in Japan fell 3.7 percent.
Japanese carmakers are expanding in growing markets including China, India and Russia, as demand slows in the U.S. and slumps in Japan. Honda will build a second factory in India and has doubled its annual vehicle production capacity in the country to 100,000 units, the company said yesterday.
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Honda Motor Co., Japan's second- largest carmaker, boosted global production in January to meet growing demand in emerging markets.
Honda built 340,762 vehicles in January, an increase of 7.7 percent from a year earlier, it said in a statement today. Production overseas jumped 13.3 percent, while output in Japan fell 3.7 percent.
Japanese carmakers are expanding in growing markets including China, India and Russia, as demand slows in the U.S. and slumps in Japan. Honda will build a second factory in India and has doubled its annual vehicle production capacity in the country to 100,000 units, the company said yesterday.
Looks like it's back to the top of the trading range we've been in for the past few weeks. All Ords closed +0.8%, Consumer Staples continued in the lead, +3.2% followed by Healthcare and Property Trusts, both +1.6%. Miners and Materials were the only red sectors, -0.9% and -0.8% respectively.
All the big miners closed down: BHP -0.8%, RIO -1.3% and in the golds, Newcrest -2%, Newmont -1.5% and Lihir -2.3%. Juniors stable, flat to up.
Oils looked a bit despondent: Woodside +0.3%, Santos -3.3% and Caltex -1.3%.
Asia dwindling away: Honkers +1.1%, India +0.6%, China +0.2% and Nikkers -0.4%.
Over to UK/Europe:
http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
Oops.... 
The new buyers of a rundown graystone on the South Side showed up Jan. 9 to look at the house they won at a foreclosure auction. They took the plywood off the front door and went inside to make sure the utilities had been shut off. Then they called the police.
Sitting upright in the corner of a bedroom off the kitchen was a human skeleton in a red tracksuit. Next to him lay a dead dog. Neighbors told police the corpse was almost certainly Randy Johnson, a middle-age man who lived alone in the North Kenwood house.
The cause of Johnson's death has not yet been determined, but it is just one of the mysteries about 4578 S. Oakenwald Ave. Somehow, Johnson's house was transferred three times to new owners without anyone noticing he was inside. It's a story involving forged deeds, a corrupt title company and a South Side family that has been under investigation for mortgage fraud.
Left holding the bag is Countrywide Home Loans, the nation's largest mortgage lender and a company whose practices are being scrutinized by the Illinois attorney general's office. Countrywide made mortgages of $450,000 on the property. Now it is likely to lose it all because it financed the sale of a home whose rightful owner was in no condition to sell.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi...1248,full.story
The new buyers of a rundown graystone on the South Side showed up Jan. 9 to look at the house they won at a foreclosure auction. They took the plywood off the front door and went inside to make sure the utilities had been shut off. Then they called the police.
Sitting upright in the corner of a bedroom off the kitchen was a human skeleton in a red tracksuit. Next to him lay a dead dog. Neighbors told police the corpse was almost certainly Randy Johnson, a middle-age man who lived alone in the North Kenwood house.
The cause of Johnson's death has not yet been determined, but it is just one of the mysteries about 4578 S. Oakenwald Ave. Somehow, Johnson's house was transferred three times to new owners without anyone noticing he was inside. It's a story involving forged deeds, a corrupt title company and a South Side family that has been under investigation for mortgage fraud.
Left holding the bag is Countrywide Home Loans, the nation's largest mortgage lender and a company whose practices are being scrutinized by the Illinois attorney general's office. Countrywide made mortgages of $450,000 on the property. Now it is likely to lose it all because it financed the sale of a home whose rightful owner was in no condition to sell.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi...1248,full.story
ifo index came just in better than expected.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 26 2008, 04:03 AM)
ifo index came just in better than expected.
I don't know what German retailers are smoking, but it must be really good stuff.
ECB's Trasheit is gonna have a field day with this one, no rate cuts for the wicked consumer.
They're attacking black money when we're in an economic downturn... fools. Nobody cares about tax evasion when state budgets are well financed, now that money is scarce they attack.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IRY0&refer=home
"The tax-evasion probe linked to Liechtenstein bank accounts widened to ten countries as Germany prepared to give the first details of its investigation into whether citizens are hiding money in the principality.
Sweden, Germany, the U.S., the U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand all have information on citizens who potentially have used Liechtenstein bank accounts to avoid taxes, Mats Sjoestrand, the Swedish Tax Agency's director general, said today. "
"The German government paid as much as 5 million euros ($7.4 million) for information on German account holders in Liechtenstein on a disk provided by an informant to the Federal Intelligence Service. It's open to sharing this information with other countries, the Finance Ministry said yesterday."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IRY0&refer=home
"The tax-evasion probe linked to Liechtenstein bank accounts widened to ten countries as Germany prepared to give the first details of its investigation into whether citizens are hiding money in the principality.
Sweden, Germany, the U.S., the U.K., France, Italy, Spain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand all have information on citizens who potentially have used Liechtenstein bank accounts to avoid taxes, Mats Sjoestrand, the Swedish Tax Agency's director general, said today. "
"The German government paid as much as 5 million euros ($7.4 million) for information on German account holders in Liechtenstein on a disk provided by an informant to the Federal Intelligence Service. It's open to sharing this information with other countries, the Finance Ministry said yesterday."
A-shares made a new low but managed to close positive in the last hour
Who's right, the shlock market or the bond market?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IRY0&refer=home
" Shares of the 691 U.S. companies with non-investment grade bond ratings have climbed 5.3 percent in the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 5.2 percent increase in the yield investors demand to own high-yield bonds rather than U.S. Treasury notes, according to an index of 892 issuers compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.
``The stock market is acting more rationally,'' said James Swanson, who helps oversee $200 billion as chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management. ``It seems to be saying, `As bad as things are, we're not in a recession.''' "
Mr. Swanson only talks stockish, and doesn't understand a word of Bondish, so he can't pronounce on what Junk bonds are telling us.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IRY0&refer=home
" Shares of the 691 U.S. companies with non-investment grade bond ratings have climbed 5.3 percent in the past month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with a 5.2 percent increase in the yield investors demand to own high-yield bonds rather than U.S. Treasury notes, according to an index of 892 issuers compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.
``The stock market is acting more rationally,'' said James Swanson, who helps oversee $200 billion as chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management. ``It seems to be saying, `As bad as things are, we're not in a recession.''' "
Mr. Swanson only talks stockish, and doesn't understand a word of Bondish, so he can't pronounce on what Junk bonds are telling us.
Wow, staggeringly poor news this morning and futes didn't move much. Has the market become disconnected from Economic reality?
GOOG ugly...
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 26 2008, 08:59 AM)
No wonder we got the "Yep, the US is going to give the OK for the IMF to sell their gold" speech yesterday! They were just front running the inflation number release from this morning! "Don't worry, the inflation EXPECTATIONS remain well anchored" (There are no American troops anywhere near Bahgdad)
QUOTE(Roger7485 @ Feb 26 2008, 02:12 PM)
GOOG ugly...
Nice for me, I'm short GOOg. No idea where she stops today.
THe upside breakout lines yesterday were at 12514 and 1366.35 (QQQQ didn't BO). If they drop below those, party's probably over. If they hold, next test of resistance would be around 12600 and 12660, and 1379.
DJ Fed Accepts $9 Bln In 7-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $9 Bln
Total submitted: $52.35 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2 Bln
Total submitted: $14.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.99%
Weighted Average: 2.99%
High-rate submitted: 2.99%
Low-rate submitted: 2.5%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.062 Bln
Total submitted: $10.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.45%
Weighted Average: 2.51%
High-rate submitted: 2.55%
Low-rate submitted: 2%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.938 Bln
Total submitted: $27.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.05%
Weighted Average: 3.06%
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
QUOTE(Lemur @ Feb 26 2008, 09:26 AM)
Nice for me, I'm short GOOg. No idea where she stops today.
Donging some CDE in honor of Jickiss!
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 26 2008, 09:43 AM)
DJ Fed Accepts $9 Bln In 7-Day RPs
Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $9 Bln
Total submitted: $52.35 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2 Bln
Total submitted: $14.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.99%
Weighted Average: 2.99%
High-rate submitted: 2.99%
Low-rate submitted: 2.5%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.062 Bln
Total submitted: $10.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.45%
Weighted Average: 2.51%
High-rate submitted: 2.55%
Low-rate submitted: 2%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.938 Bln
Total submitted: $27.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.05%
Weighted Average: 3.06%
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $9 Bln
Total submitted: $52.35 Bln
Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2 Bln
Total submitted: $14.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.99%
Weighted Average: 2.99%
High-rate submitted: 2.99%
Low-rate submitted: 2.5%
Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.062 Bln
Total submitted: $10.15 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.45%
Weighted Average: 2.51%
High-rate submitted: 2.55%
Low-rate submitted: 2%
Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.938 Bln
Total submitted: $27.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.05%
Weighted Average: 3.06%
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%
(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
The Fed has an enormous problem this week. See yesterday's Fed Report in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition for details. I am not that surprised that they did a 7 day repo on a Tuesday, which is almost unheard of. But unless they step up to the plate again today, this is a drain, at least for today, but it means there will be no expirations tomorrow.
QUOTE(Lemur @ Feb 26 2008, 09:26 AM)
Nice for me, I'm short GOOg. No idea where she stops today.
Target: 461
Carl Futile
QUOTE
Google broke below 500 support yesterday even as the averages rallied. This combination makes a drop to 460 the next likely development.
test
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<embed src="http://eplayer.clipsyndicate.com/cs_api/get_swf?swfHome=eplayer.clipsyndicate.com&pl_id=1778&wpid=2593" width="320" height="260" allowfullscreen="true" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer"></embed>
I wonder if Carl knows just how much admiration you all have for him. 
Builders rally on release of Case Shiller showing 9% decline.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
*DJ Fed Awards $30B 28-Day Credit Via Term Auction Facility
*DJ Fed Term Auction Facility Awarded At Stop-Out Rate 3.080%
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 26 2008, 09:56 AM)
I wonder if Carl knows just how much admiration you all have for him.
Any trader worth his salt has to now at least CONsider donging Google!
QUOTE(Brick Stoolhouse @ Feb 26 2008, 09:20 AM)
No wonder we got the "Yep, the US is going to give the OK for the IMF to sell their gold" speech yesterday! They were just front running the inflation number release from this morning! "Don't worry, the inflation EXPECTATIONS remain well anchored" (There are no American troops anywhere near Bahgdad)
The options on silver and gold expire tomorrow, I think. amazing how that works.
Oops! It's actually below 460 
The system is broken... run for your lives!
The system is broken... run for your lives!
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 26 2008, 10:00 AM)
Builders rally on release of Case Shiller showing 9% decline.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
It must be good news. Some info babe said prices should bottom out in 08.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 26 2008, 03:00 PM)
Builders rally on release of Case Shiller showing 9% decline.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...l9kE&refer=home
Stopped out of my LEN short. Nice profit goes to loss. Such Bullshit.
This must be good news also.
Foreclosures exceed sales
JAN. DATA REFLECTs STATE'S GRIM MARKET
By Pete Carey and Sue McAllister
Mercury News
Article Launched: 02/23/2008 01:34:20 AM PST
For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.
The data is a grim reflection of the worsening housing market, as the number of homeowners who can't or won't make their payments rises and the number of home buyers dwindles.
ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans.
Meanwhile, DataQuick reported 19,145 home and condo sales in January.
In December, there were 12,783 foreclosures, according to ForeclosureRadar, and 25,585 home and condo sales, according to DataQuick.
Sean O'Toole of ForeclosureRadar said he doubts there has ever been another time when the number of foreclosures exceeded the number of sales in a month.
DataQuick's numbers are for closed transactions that occurred in January. ForeclosureRadar uses its own proprietary method of gathering foreclosure data.
"There's no way a market that slow can clear these kinds of foreclosures," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a Bay Area research and consulting firm. "What that number says to me is you have more homes getting dumped on the market in terms of foreclosures than there is demand for homes."
Foreclosures exceed sales
JAN. DATA REFLECTs STATE'S GRIM MARKET
By Pete Carey and Sue McAllister
Mercury News
Article Launched: 02/23/2008 01:34:20 AM PST
For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.
The data is a grim reflection of the worsening housing market, as the number of homeowners who can't or won't make their payments rises and the number of home buyers dwindles.
ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans.
Meanwhile, DataQuick reported 19,145 home and condo sales in January.
In December, there were 12,783 foreclosures, according to ForeclosureRadar, and 25,585 home and condo sales, according to DataQuick.
Sean O'Toole of ForeclosureRadar said he doubts there has ever been another time when the number of foreclosures exceeded the number of sales in a month.
DataQuick's numbers are for closed transactions that occurred in January. ForeclosureRadar uses its own proprietary method of gathering foreclosure data.
"There's no way a market that slow can clear these kinds of foreclosures," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a Bay Area research and consulting firm. "What that number says to me is you have more homes getting dumped on the market in terms of foreclosures than there is demand for homes."
The market should rally hard on PPI news after they figure out what it means. High costs that are being absorbed by business means high demand. High PPi numbers are better than the alternative of declining PPI and deflationary environment.
Google:
422 is 50 fibo, 403 is EMA 200 weekly
422 is 50 fibo, 403 is EMA 200 weekly
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 26 2008, 10:03 AM)
*DJ Fed Awards $30B 28-Day Credit Via Term Auction Facility
*DJ Fed Term Auction Facility Awarded At Stop-Out Rate 3.080%
*DJ Fed Term Auction Facility Awarded At Stop-Out Rate 3.080%
I have avoided shorting the builders since last closed out on January 10. Waiting patiently for the next short signal. It's been a very difficult group, probably because of the high short interest. Seems to me the Pigmen are gaming the shorts. So I haven't gone anywhere near the group for over 6 weeks.
I have tried one short in the last month, and got virtually beheaded on it.
The two sectors we are holding long are looking pretty good so far, but the shakeouts have been a problem. Picks are geared to a several week holding period and that has been a very, very tough thing to do in this environment. Those of you who are scalping and trading swings of a few days are much better off in this mess, than methods which try to catch the longer swings. The churning has been brutal to those. I call it a meat grinder market. Every time you dip a toe in the water it gets cut off and ground up into dog food.
5 hr cycle indicators sell signals from negative divergences. 3 day cycle indicators looking toppy, and indexes holding just at or above yesterday's breakout lines. Moment of truth approaches.
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 26 2008, 10:13 AM)
This must be good news also.
Foreclosures exceed sales
JAN. DATA REFLECTs STATE'S GRIM MARKET
By Pete Carey and Sue McAllister
Mercury News
Article Launched: 02/23/2008 01:34:20 AM PST
For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.
The data is a grim reflection of the worsening housing market, as the number of homeowners who can't or won't make their payments rises and the number of home buyers dwindles.
ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans.
Meanwhile, DataQuick reported 19,145 home and condo sales in January.
In December, there were 12,783 foreclosures, according to ForeclosureRadar, and 25,585 home and condo sales, according to DataQuick.
Sean O'Toole of ForeclosureRadar said he doubts there has ever been another time when the number of foreclosures exceeded the number of sales in a month.
DataQuick's numbers are for closed transactions that occurred in January. ForeclosureRadar uses its own proprietary method of gathering foreclosure data.
"There's no way a market that slow can clear these kinds of foreclosures," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a Bay Area research and consulting firm. "What that number says to me is you have more homes getting dumped on the market in terms of foreclosures than there is demand for homes."
Foreclosures exceed sales
JAN. DATA REFLECTs STATE'S GRIM MARKET
By Pete Carey and Sue McAllister
Mercury News
Article Launched: 02/23/2008 01:34:20 AM PST
For what one expert thought was the first time, the number of monthly foreclosures exceeded the number of monthly home sales in California in January, according to data compiled by two research companies.
The data is a grim reflection of the worsening housing market, as the number of homeowners who can't or won't make their payments rises and the number of home buyers dwindles.
ForeclosureRadar, a Discovery Bay real estate research firm, said 19,821 California homes went into foreclosure in January, representing about $8 billion in home loans.
Meanwhile, DataQuick reported 19,145 home and condo sales in January.
In December, there were 12,783 foreclosures, according to ForeclosureRadar, and 25,585 home and condo sales, according to DataQuick.
Sean O'Toole of ForeclosureRadar said he doubts there has ever been another time when the number of foreclosures exceeded the number of sales in a month.
DataQuick's numbers are for closed transactions that occurred in January. ForeclosureRadar uses its own proprietary method of gathering foreclosure data.
"There's no way a market that slow can clear these kinds of foreclosures," said Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics, a Bay Area research and consulting firm. "What that number says to me is you have more homes getting dumped on the market in terms of foreclosures than there is demand for homes."
Shocking and horrifying. As bearish as I have been on housing, the thought that something like that could happen never entered my mind.
qqqq just hit 5 hr cycle projection of 43.45.
Bucky must hold neckline at 75 or it measures to 72.25 or so. Nice update on Bucky Doc. Today's slide has put the cci60 on a sell most likely, pushing it below
-100.
-100.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 26 2008, 03:22 PM)
I have avoided shorting the builders since last closed out on January 10. Waiting patiently for the next short signal. It's been a very difficult group, probably because of the high short interest. Seems to me the Pigmen are gaming the shorts. So I haven't gone anywhere near the group for over 6 weeks.
I have tried one short in the last month, and got virtually beheaded on it.
The two sectors we are holding long are looking pretty good so far, but the shakeouts have been a problem. Picks are geared to a several week holding period and that has been a very, very tough thing to do in this environment. Those of you who are scalping and trading swings of a few days are much better off in this mess, than methods which try to catch the longer swings. The churning has been brutal to those. I call it a meat grinder market. Every time you dip a toe in the water it gets cut off and ground up into dog food.
I have tried one short in the last month, and got virtually beheaded on it.
The two sectors we are holding long are looking pretty good so far, but the shakeouts have been a problem. Picks are geared to a several week holding period and that has been a very, very tough thing to do in this environment. Those of you who are scalping and trading swings of a few days are much better off in this mess, than methods which try to catch the longer swings. The churning has been brutal to those. I call it a meat grinder market. Every time you dip a toe in the water it gets cut off and ground up into dog food.
I think the short interest on KBH & LEN is approx 25% so a nice juicy target for the pigmen. I have been sitting patiently in KBH and taking the heat on it on days like this. I got stopped on LEN today (allowing a nice profit to slip away) but just reshorted it here again at $20.23.
As long as you still think they are going to zero................
As somebody pointed out to me, why would anyone buy a new house when all of these cheap foreclosures are available?
That's also the initial 3 day cycle projection. Shport lines come in around 43.41 and 43.34, then there's an air pocket to 42.79
Speaking of meat grinding markets, take a look at what has been happening to broad index like NYA. The index is not going anywhere, yet the volume is surging.
[attachmentid=95967]
[attachmentid=95967]
I have said many times that the worst case for shorting anything is the fundamental case, because the more well known the problems are, the higher the short interest. Shorting should only be done based on the charts. It should only be done with the trend, and at resistance, when the indicators are favorably positioned.
Some builders will go belly up before others. Watch their cash burn rate. Some of them still have a huge cash pile they built up during the bubble.
But then again, there's "cash", and then there's "cash eqivalents". Not all cash is created equal, as the market has been learning. If it ain't in T-bills, it ain't cash.
Some builders will go belly up before others. Watch their cash burn rate. Some of them still have a huge cash pile they built up during the bubble.
But then again, there's "cash", and then there's "cash eqivalents". Not all cash is created equal, as the market has been learning. If it ain't in T-bills, it ain't cash.
Market is waiting for something. Wonder what it is, maybe the Kohn speech later.
3 day cycle indicators edge to sell side on spx and dow. 5 day cycle indicators on qqqq tanking as price starts to grind through shport and toward the air pocket.
spx has dropped below the breakout line at 1366. dow sitting right there at 12516.
QUOTE(linrom @ Feb 26 2008, 10:33 AM)
Speaking of meat grinding markets, take a look at what has been happening to broad index like NYA. The index is not going anywhere, yet the volume is surging.
[attachmentid=95967]
[attachmentid=95967]
Disturbation?
TNX yield now dropping, guess bonds like stagflation
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 26 2008, 11:38 AM)
I have said many times that the worst case for shorting anything is the fundamental case, because the more well known the problems are, the higher the short interest. Shorting should only be done based on the charts. It should only be done with the trend, and at resistance, when the indicators are favorably positioned.
Some builders will go belly up before others. Watch their cash burn rate. Some of them still have a huge cash pile they built up during the bubble.
But then again, there's "cash", and then there's "cash eqivalents". Not all cash is created equal, as the market has been learning. If it ain't in T-bills, it ain't cash.
Some builders will go belly up before others. Watch their cash burn rate. Some of them still have a huge cash pile they built up during the bubble.
But then again, there's "cash", and then there's "cash eqivalents". Not all cash is created equal, as the market has been learning. If it ain't in T-bills, it ain't cash.
Newbie question - what happens if you are holding something short and the company goes bankrupt - is there a mechanism to get out of your position if the equity is halted due to bankruptcy?
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