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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board > Stock Market Message Board > Intraday Stool- Stock Market Short Term Trading
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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
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All Ords continuing merrily on its way. The index +0.7% with IT and Financials leading, both +1.4%. There are two red sectors, Property Trusts -1.3% and Consumer Staples -0.6%.

The big miners not getting too excited: BHP +1% and RIO +0.8%. Golds powering up, Newcrest +3%, Newmont +1.3% and Lihir +2.9%.

Some interest in the oils: Woodside +1.4%, Santos +3.9% and Caltex +0.9%.


aussiebear
Hong Kong's GDP Growth Slows as Exports to U.S. Fall

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's economic expansion slowed last year as exports to the U.S. fell. The government forecasts the weakest growth in five years in 2008.

Gross domestic product rose 6.3 percent from a year earlier, Financial Secretary John Tsang said today in his budget speech, after gaining a revised 7 percent in 2006. That was more than the 6.2 percent median estimate of nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.


aussiebear
N.Z. Dollar Climbs to Record on Prospect Rates to Stay Higher

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's dollar advanced to the highest level since being allowed to trade freely 23 years ago, after a housing report boosted prospects the central bank will keep interest rates at a record high.

Home-building approvals gained 3.3 percent from December, when they fell 3.9 percent to the lowest since April 2005.


aussiebear
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Pretty good gains in most sectors today. All Ords closed +1.7%, Metals & Mining took over the lead, +2.6% followed by Materials +2.5% and Healthcare +2.2%. The only red sector was Consumer Staples -0.3%.

The big miners cranked up: BHP +2.8% and RIO +1.9%. Golds did even better, Newcrest +6.8%, Newmont +2.4% and Lihir +6.3%. Some of the junior resource stocks took off with gains of 25% or more.

In the oils, Santos did a surge +7.5%, Woodside +2.4% and Caltex +0.9%.

A big day in Asia: Honkers +3.7%, China +2.7%, India and Singers +1.6% and Nikkers +1.5%.


Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe


Peek Paper
Ben and Pauly are gonna need lottsa spare buttplugs today ...
hadjin
PMs Afterhours are bonering.. 1:52 am PST

MARKET IS OPEN
(Will close in 12 hrs. 24 mins.)
Metals Date Time (EST) Bid Ask Change from NY Close
GOLD 02/27/2008 04:51 960.80 961.60 +12.10
+1.28%

SILVER 02/27/2008 04:51 19.35 19.40 +0.64
+3.42%

PLATINUM
02/27/2008 04:50 2160.00 2167.00 +11.00
+0.51%

PALLADIUM 02/27/2008 04:43 554.00 559.00 +20.00
+3.75%

Jetlag
New ATH for Oil! Where's the inflation adjusted top from the 80's?

[attachmentid=96016]

Party on ppl!

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Rhoiders beat me to it:
"
Feb 27 (Reuters) - U.S. oil surged to a record $101.98 a
barrel on Wednesday, closing in on an inflation-adjusted peak of
$102.53 seen in 1980.


The following table from the BP Statistical Review picks out
key moments in oil market history. It gives average annual
dollar-denominated oil prices in money of the day and the
equivalent price in 2006 money. Prices are in dollars a barrel.

Year Money of Inflation

the day adjusted

1876 - Russian oil exports start 2.56 48.64

1948 - Rebuilding post World War Two 1.99 16.74

1974 - Arab oil embargo 11.58 47.54

1979 - Iranian revolution 31.61 88.13

1980 - Iran-Iraq war starts 36.83 90.46

1990 - Iraq's invasion of Kuwait 23.73 36.76

1998 - Asian economic crisis 12.72 16.22

2003 - China 2nd biggest oil consumer 38.27 40.83

*2008 average 93.78 93.78

NOTE:

1861-1944 - U.S. average

1945-1983 - Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura

1984-present day - Brent dated

*2008 U.S. crude

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2007
"

http://www.reuters.com/article/fundsFundsN...736008020080227
Jorma
Oil supply is apparently increasing finally, getting above the mid 05 peak.

Follow the link for some heavy sledding with the production stats for some after hours study perhaps. The point being that no matter how you slice and dice the numbers funnymentals of oil don't scream bull. We know they don't mean a thing trading wise but it's good to know the score. Blame the now tanking dollar, blame anything you want. It's crack up boom behavior.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3660



DrStool
When I tune in and see this number of posts from MERKANS! overnight, it makes me suspect that sumthin's goin on. What it is, I guess we'll find out.
DrStool
Good Morning!

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Doc


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DrStool
Bonds explode, yields and rates plunge on weak durable goods number.

I will be very interested to see if this sticks given the supply issues this week.
Jetlag
AAA label doesn't fool the markets

"Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that Armonk, New York-based MBIA's bond insurance unit won't be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc., which is rated 10 steps lower."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...BRzE&refer=home

In the end "only" widows and orphans pension funds will suffer from the maintenance of the rating.
Brick Stoolhouse
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 08:37 AM)
Bonds explode, yields and rates plunge on weak durable goods number. 

I will be very interested to see if this sticks given the supply issues this week.
*



For those of you who do not subscribe to the Professional Edition, WHY THE HELL NOT??? Doc has made about 10 recommendations since Feb. 11th in the PRecious metals stocks. They are ALL green. The top 5 percentage gainers are up:
25.5%
17.8%
12.5%
11.6%
10.5%

You could have paid for years worth of subscription fees with these picks alone!
Good job Doc! Brick the Brown Noser! biggrin.gif
potatohead
I hate to say it but short term top may be near......


*DJ Central Fund Prices 4.3M Shr Offer At $13.20/Class A Shr

NAV is 12.05 welcome to the hose job......This is why I do not like this fund.... the buyers at this level are paying a huge premium.... and the existing shares are being diluted... Their is a commission that is paid to the investment bank from this offering, that is where the dilution comes in.

I am a big advocate of owning the physical..
DrStool
dow 3 day cycle MA 12629, 5 day 12512.
DrStool
spx 3 day 1376. 5 day 1364.62
Speakeasy
New all time low for Bucky. It has support from a falling TL about 74.2, and that's it for a few buckys. Bucky needs to make a bottom pronto or it's started a new leg down. I'll include the weekly and monthly for those who weren't on m2m last nite.

DrStool
qqqq sitting just above uptrendline 43.70, below 8 day cycle MA 43.87, 3 and 5 day converging at 43.98. both turning down a bit. 3 and 5 day cycle indicators on sell side.
DrStool
QUOTE(Brick Stoolhouse @ Feb 27 2008, 09:22 AM)
For those of you who do not subscribe to the Professional Edition, WHY THE HELL NOT??? Doc has made about 10 recommendations since Feb. 11th in the PRecious metals stocks. They are ALL green. The top 5 percentage gainers are up:
25.5%
17.8%
12.5%
11.6%
10.5%

You could have paid for years worth of subscription fees with these picks alone!
Good job Doc! Brick the Brown Noser! biggrin.gif
*




laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Shhhhh!!!! You'll jinx it!
DrStool
qqqq 3 day cycle projection 43.45.
cwd
QUOTE(Jorma @ Feb 27 2008, 05:33 AM)
Oil supply is apparently increasing finally, getting above the mid 05 peak.

Follow the link for some heavy sledding with the production stats for some after hours study perhaps.  The point being that no matter how you slice and dice the numbers funnymentals of oil don't scream bull.  We know they don't mean a thing trading wise but it's good to know the score. Blame the now tanking dollar, blame anything you want. It's crack up boom behavior.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3660
*




How much has world wide consumption increased since 05? unsure.gif
potatohead

DJ Fed Accepts $11.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $11.5 Bln
Total submitted: $36.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.849 Bln
Total submitted: $13.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.92%
Weighted Average: 2.93%
High-rate submitted: 2.94%
Low-rate submitted: 2.82%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.089 Bln
Total submitted: $10.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.19%
Weighted Average: 2.2%
High-rate submitted: 2.22%
Low-rate submitted: 2.1%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.562 Bln
Total submitted: $12 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.98%
Weighted Average: 2.99%
High-rate submitted: 3%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
cwd
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Feb 27 2008, 09:05 AM)
AAA label doesn't fool the markets

"Credit-default swaps indicating the risk that Armonk, New York-based MBIA's bond insurance unit won't be able to meet its obligations are trading at similar levels to companies such as homebuilder Pulte Homes Inc., which is rated 10 steps lower."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...BRzE&refer=home

In the end "only" widows and orphans pension funds will suffer from the maintenance of the rating.
*




Screw the widows and orphans. Save the Banksters. ph34r.gif
linrom
Bush at his daily prayer cabinet meeting.

[attachmentid=96020]



This is a humorous depiction and not a reflection on anyone's religion.
DrStool
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 27 2008, 09:41 AM)
DJ Fed Accepts $11.5 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $11.5 Bln
Total submitted: $36.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.849 Bln
Total submitted: $13.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.92%
Weighted Average: 2.93%
High-rate submitted: 2.94%
Low-rate submitted: 2.82%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.089 Bln
Total submitted: $10.75 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.19%
Weighted Average: 2.2%
High-rate submitted: 2.22%
Low-rate submitted: 2.1%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.562 Bln
Total submitted: $12 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.98%
Weighted Average: 2.99%
High-rate submitted: 3%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*




There are reasons for this, as explained in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report. Wait until we see what happens Thursday, Friday, and Monday. For those of you who are not subscribers, click the link below to try the service risk free for 30 days and get the inside dope (that's me laugh.gif ) starting RIGHT NOW!
Speakeasy
QUOTE(linrom @ Feb 27 2008, 07:44 AM)
Bush at his daily prayer cabinet meeting.

[attachmentid=96020]
This is a humorous depiction and not a reflection on anyone's religion.
*


laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

And then he's off to breakfast.

DrStool
back above the rising 3 day cycle MAs after a brief break. 12633.70 and 1376.45. The trend is intact.
stoolbob-brownpants
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 27 2008, 09:30 AM)
I hate to say it but short term top may be near......
*DJ Central Fund Prices 4.3M Shr Offer At $13.20/Class A Shr

NAV is 12.05 welcome to the hose job......This is why I do not like this fund.... the buyers at this level are paying a huge premium.... and the existing shares are being diluted... Their is a commission that is paid to the investment bank from this offering, that is where the dilution comes in.

I am a big advocate of owning the physical..
*




They do this once or twice a year usually when the premium over nav is about 10 or more %. http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm
and they tell everyone who cares to read about it http://www.centralfund.com/Press%20Releases.htm blink.gif


I have been trying to short CEF for awhile and there are no shares to short,
even my own against the virtual box. mad.gif
I only buy cef after one of these offerings and only at less than 2% over nav which is typically what is charged for physical.
DrStool
however 3 day cycle indicators remain on sell signals and 5 day have also edged to the sell side. What's needed now to confirm is a break below the MAs.
DrStool
What is the advantage of owning cef versus gld?
cwd
QUOTE(Brick Stoolhouse @ Feb 27 2008, 09:22 AM)
For those of you who do not subscribe to the Professional Edition, WHY THE HELL NOT??? Doc has made about 10 recommendations since Feb. 11th in the PRecious metals stocks. They are ALL green. The top 5 percentage gainers are up:
25.5%
17.8%
12.5%
11.6%
10.5%

You could have paid for years worth of subscription fees with these picks alone!
Good job Doc! Brick the Brown Noser! biggrin.gif
*




Agreed, Doc does the new low in the dollar change your dollar analysis? unsure.gif
Speakeasy
Dr. Benny is on the hill this morning. Lately, his appearances there have been good for several hundred points to the downside. rolleyes.gif
potatohead
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 09:05 AM)
What is the advantage of owning cef versus gld?
*



none except the convenience of playing the paper price of gold and silver....you have no rights to the metal....
DrStool
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 27 2008, 10:07 AM)
Agreed, Doc does the new low in the dollar change your dollar analysis? unsure.gif
*



It's right in line with the update posted yesterday morning.

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2363
cwd
QUOTE(stoolbob-brownpants @ Feb 27 2008, 09:58 AM)
They do this once or twice a year usually when the premium over nav is about 10 or more %. http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm
and they tell everyone who cares to read about it http://www.centralfund.com/Press%20Releases.htm blink.gif
I have been trying to short CEF for awhile and there are no shares to short,
even my own against the virtual box.  mad.gif
I only buy cef after one of these offerings and only at less than 2% over nav which is typically what is charged for physical.
*




Agreed, you have to watch the premium.
CEF today

Premium/-Discount
13.1% USD
12.4% CAD
I am selling mine now. Thanks for the haeads up biggrin.gif
cwd
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 10:12 AM)
It's right in line with the update posted yesterday morning. 

http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2363
*



Thanks biggrin.gif
Lemur
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 27 2008, 03:12 PM)
none except the convenience of playing the paper price of gold and silver....you have no rights to the metal....
*




Try Goldmoney.com or Bullionvault.com. Its physical, low fees and you can store it safely in Switzerland.
ChicagoBear
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 08:48 AM)
There are reasons for this, as explained in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report. Wait until we see what happens Thursday, Friday, and Monday.  For those of you who are not subscribers, click the link below to try the service risk free for 30 days and get the inside dope (that's me  laugh.gif ) starting RIGHT NOW!
*




Would you ever try timing shorts based on the liquidity outlook?
It seems that with over $100b needed between repos, trashury, and CMB's over the next 3 days, the mother of all vacuums is about start sucking.
Speakeasy
Hmmm. Both crapbox and bloombox went to studio guests as Ron Paul began to speak. Fokker's! dry.gif
elh
Not going to deny that the dollar is collapsing in real terms against a a forced yuan appreciation strategy.

Dollar Index is manipulated via EUR/USD.

EUR/USD is a mini carry-trade pair, not on the scale of EUR-JPY, but certainly distorted.
Dharmaeye
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 27 2008, 07:14 AM)
Agreed, you have to watch the premium.
CEF today

Premium/-Discount
  13.1% USD
  12.4% CAD
I am selling mine now. Thanks for the haeads up biggrin.gif
*



I've noticed that the premium is a very good buy and sell indicator.
Better historical charts would help.
http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages...s.asp?MFID=3653
cwd
Helo Ben, economy has slowed,housing market has reversed course. laugh.gif
DrStool
Let's say you have an 83 year old widder aunt. It's not exactly feasible for her to own the physical gold. In that case what would you put her in, assuming of course that the timing was right.
cwd
QUOTE(elh @ Feb 27 2008, 10:23 AM)
Not going to deny that the dollar is collapsing in real terms against a a forced yuan appreciation strategy.

Dollar Index is manipulated via EUR/USD. 

EUR/USD is a mini carry-trade pair, not on the scale of EUR-JPY, but certainly distorted.
*




I bought some Swiss government bonds this morning, 1-2 years out. unsure.gif
Dharmaeye
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 07:29 AM)
Let's say you have an 83 year old widder aunt. It's not exactly feasible for her to own the physical gold.  In that case what would you put her in, assuming of course that the timing was right.
*



I would choose CEF
Very liquid.
Long history - decades
HELD outside of the USA in Canada

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/milhouse011806.html
cwd
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 10:29 AM)
Let's say you have an 83 year old widder aunt. It's not exactly feasible for her to own the physical gold.  In that case what would you put her in, assuming of course that the timing was right.
*




How much and what is the time frame? unsure.gif
Lemur
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 27 2008, 03:29 PM)
Let's say you have an 83 year old widder aunt. It's not exactly feasible for her to own the physical gold. In that case what would you put her in, assuming of course that the timing was right.
*




Why not? Just open a Goldmoney or bullionvault account. Fees are minimal. I have both for a number of years now.
potatohead
QUOTE(Lemur @ Feb 27 2008, 09:18 AM)
Try Goldmoney.com or Bullionvault.com. Its physical, low fees and you can store it safely in Switzerland.
*




you better read the contract.....that is not your gold. Bullion vault does not have to deliver the gold to you....Gold Money only will ship if you have 1000 ounces ...both programs are flawed....that is why I created a bullion fund that is meets the needs of individuals not the bullion dealers....

I have studied this in depth for over 2 years
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