He's ba-a-a-a-a-ck!

Who?

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Old geeser on CNBS- worst credit problem since the great depression, info babe trying to shut him up.

Lotsa bad news today, and they couldn't close the SPX green.

Whatsa bull to do ?

The market can rally on a day the Fed drains heavily if there are other extenuating circumstances. When the Fed is pumping heavily, the market rarely falls much. The day to day correlation is haphazard. It's probably better than 50/50 but it's far from perfect. However, over periods of weeks and months there is a direct correlation. This is especially the case for the 13 week and 6 month cycles. When things do get out of whack for longer periods, the market always returns to where the Fed Liquidity line is. Hence the axiom "Don't fight the Fed" is well supported by the analysis of just how much liquidity the Fed is providing. In some cases it works day to day, but more on a month to month basis. Therefore it's important to recognize the turning points in how the Fed is managing open market operations.

One of those turning points was January 31. When the Fed was quantitatively tight between last July and the end of January, we saw the result. That ended on January 31, and we are now seeing the results in the stock market. Obviously, it is not the only driver, but it is one of the most important ones. If you compile and analyze the data as carefully as I do, you will come to realize just how important the Fed is to the market.

By carefully following and analyzing the data every day, I was able to correctly forecast that the Fed would be pumping in February, and I warned at that time that if this did turn out to be the case that it could coincide with the beginning of a 13 week and 6 month cycle up phase.

Of course, you don't have to do the work yourself. It's time consuming and there are multiple relationships involved, so let me do the heavy lifting for you. If you are interested in the real facts about what the Fed, Treasury, and FCBs are doing every day, and how those actions are likely to affect the market, then the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report is for you! Click the link below to begin your 30 day risk free trial and get in the know RIGHT NOW!

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RUTRO?

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AAPL is up 4 AH, not sure why.

i went and got some QQQQ puts before the close.

holding my USO puts.... need oil to have a nice takedown.

Looks like a lopsided short trade at 100. I would wait a bit.

They've gone to Betson's.

"If anyone owns the white Chevy Malibu with Jersey tags out in the parking lot, you left your lights on."

Is it a holiday or something? This is supposed to be bearish, right?

Well, it's been a good decade to own gold. Not as good as rhodium, of course. Does anyone actually own rhodium? I wish I owned rhodium.

I know, everybody is en route to the TRE annual meeting in Toronto. Say hi to Uncle Jim for me.

There are rumors about former Armscor and other white power hardliners in South Africa having amassed large hoards. The whole strategic metals supply dilemma has been talked about for decades -- pretty much to the point where everyone got bored with it, especially after Russia (the #2 source) became a "free market economy."
So less than twenty years after "the end of history," welcome to the new world order. Where do we fit in? Under the heading of Clusterf*ck Nation (apologies to Mr. Kunstler).

[QUOTE]DOLLAR _MANUFACTURING_HOUSING

Dollar fall means manufacturing revival means housing revival in traditional manufacturing areas.
*


...could you connect the dots for me on this statement, Jimbo?

Maybe I was being too optimistic.

The scenario would take time to play out.

Depends on where the manufacturing revival is.

This might be the absolute deadest I have ever seen this forum.

Ominous.

I think TLT is short-term bullish because it needs to make a right shoulder. But the rally must be sold. I still hold quite a lot of TLT, about 50% of my original position that I took in June-July, mostly near the bottom.

TLT is pretty much the only reasonable thing on my 401k plan, and I have many years of maximum contribution there.

This may be a Short Term Top
I hope as I am Full Short with QID
Time to slide down the slope of hope

I think consumer staples will continue to outperform SPX, but crazy money moving out of defensive sectors make me thin that better entry point is ahead.

Today I sold my "basic materials" position and immediately went short.

Based on cycle rotation theory materials must be topping now, odds of rally are minimal.

Theory says that energy must outperform basic materials, and I think it will, though energy also looks toppy. I also sold my energy position last week, but I don't plan to short - am I crazy?

A sense of complete futility. (Apologies to our good friend Carl, I was not talking about him. ).

The banking/credit apparatus has made a complete mess of the financial system and they have devised several destructive and dishonest methods to let everyone else stuck with the tab.

Why save? Why invest? We're obviously standing on the outside of a process that shows no respect and only includes us when it chooses to pick our pocket.

I went to a lot of cash when I couldn't find anything I was interested in, and I've slowly, very slowly been adding inverse ETF positions. I refuse to go long in anything but metal stocks because I know there is one place where this market has to go, and for the sake of clearing the air, needs to go.

But getting there....

And one crazy article from my blog, wadda think?

Feds bet on recession
Posted by theroxylandr under Economics, Finance, Investing, Money (edit this)


Today morning I heard quite a smart guy at Boomberg radio (not sure what his name was). He made several interesting points on inflation:
1. Historically, inflation usually peaks during second half of the recession

What does it mean? If this recession indeed started in December and will end in December of ‘08 it is totally normal to expect the inflation to peak somewhere in late Summer or even Autumn period.
2. When the recession starts inflation takes care of itself

It doesn’t matter what Feds do after the recession already had started, the inflation eventually fade. The hyperinflation scenario (1970s) happens because of the Feds actions before the recession
3. Feds made a huge bet that we are or soon will be in recession

The greatest risk in Feds aggressive rate cuts is not that it may fail to prevent a recession. Just in opposite. The greatest risk to the economy happens if after those aggressive rate cuts we do not fall into recession, because in that case the inflation will not take care of itself. Then Feds will be forced to raise rates to the moon and the hell will break lose.

That could explain why Feds were very tight back in January. They tried to force the economy into recession, because this is the optimal outcome. In the past few weeks they got enough evidence that we are in recession and now they can finally relax the monetary policy.

This economy needs a recession badly and, fortunately, we are in recession. All goes well, or at least according to plan :-)