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aussiebear
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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices


aussiebear
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All Ords looking a bit droopy today. The index currently -1.2% with all sectors down apart from Telecomms, +0.2%. IT is at the top of the red list, -3.3% followed by Financials, -2.3%.

Miners are spinning their wheels: BHP -0.9%, RIO -0.5% and in the golds Newcrest -1.3%, Newmont +0.9% and Lihir -0.2%. Juniors mixed.

Oils all down: Woodside -4.1%, Santos -2.4% and Caltex -0.5%.


aussiebear
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Financials dragged the market down today. All Ords closed -1.6% with the aforementioned financials losing -4.1% followed by IT -3.1%. Telecomms had the least loss, -0.3%.

Not too much damage on BHP and RIO, both -0.6%. Golds varied: Newcrest -3.9%, Newmont flat and Lihir -0.7%. Juniors mostly down.

Oils: Woodside -2.9%, Santos -0.7% and Caltex +0.3%.

Asia mixed: Honkers +1.3%, China -0.7%, India and Nikkers both -0.5%.


Over to UK/Europe:

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http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe



aussiebear
Japan Production Falls 2%, Twice as Much as Predicted

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's factory production fell in January at twice the pace economists predicted as a deepening U.S. slump weakened demand for cars and electronics.

Companies cut output 2 percent from December, when it rose 1.4 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 47 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.8 percent decline.

Cutbacks in output of electronic parts and devices and transportation equipment drove about two-thirds of the decline, the government said.


aussiebear
Australian Company Investment Rebounds on China

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business investment rebounded in the fourth quarter, after falling the most in eight years, as mining companies such as Rio Tinto Group expanded to meet Chinese demand for iron ore.

Capital spending rose 5.1 percent from the third quarter, when it fell a revised 6.2 percent, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today.

Demand from China for natural resources has prompted mining companies such as Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton Ltd. to expand mines and fix port and railway bottlenecks. Rising investment will fuel the nation's economic expansion, now in its 17th year, and add to pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs amid the fastest inflation since 1991.

--------------

Australian Dollar Rises to Highest Since 1984 on Rate Advantage

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose to its highest level in almost 24 years on speculation the nation's interest-rate advantage over the U.S. will keep widening.

The currency advanced for a sixth day, the longest winning streak since August, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke signaled the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut its 3 percent interest rate to shore up a faltering economy. Australia's dollar was buoyed as investors bought the nation's higher- yielding assets in anticipation the central bank will raise its 7 percent benchmark rate again next week to slow inflation.


Jetlag
QUOTE(roxy @ Feb 27 2008, 10:48 PM)
And one crazy article from my blog, wadda think?

Feds bet on recession
Posted by theroxylandr under Economics, Finance, Investing, Money (edit this)


Today morning I heard quite a smart guy at Boomberg radio (not sure what his name was). He made several interesting points on inflation:
1. Historically, inflation usually peaks during second half of the recession

What does it mean? If this recession indeed started in December and will end in December of ‘08 it is totally normal to expect the inflation to peak somewhere in late Summer or even Autumn period.
2. When the recession starts inflation takes care of itself

It doesn’t matter what Feds do after the recession already had started, the inflation eventually fade. The hyperinflation scenario (1970s) happens because of the Feds actions before the recession
3. Feds made a huge bet that we are or soon will be in recession

The greatest risk in Feds aggressive rate cuts is not that it may fail to prevent a recession. Just in opposite. The greatest risk to the economy happens if after those aggressive rate cuts we do not fall into recession, because in that case the inflation will not take care of itself. Then Feds will be forced to raise rates to the moon and the hell will break lose.

That could explain why Feds were very tight back in January. They tried to force the economy into recession, because this is the optimal outcome. In the past few weeks they got enough evidence that we are in recession and now they can finally relax the monetary policy.

This economy needs a recession badly and, fortunately, we are in recession. All goes well, or at least according to plan :-)
*



That's perfect for a closed economy.
What if inflation is driven mainly by developing countries?

Why did they condone the creation of the RE bubble in the first place? were they that afraid of a deflationist spiral?
potatohead
DJ Fed Accepts $17 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $17 Bln
Total submitted: $46.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.492 Bln
Total submitted: $15.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.97%
Weighted Average: 2.97%
High-rate submitted: 2.97%
Low-rate submitted: 2.7%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.861 Bln
Total submitted: $12.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.25%
Weighted Average: 2.28%
High-rate submitted: 2.35%
Low-rate submitted: 1.75%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $10.647 Bln
Total submitted: $18 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.07%
Weighted Average: 3.07%
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

laz_the_hun

there is an extremly bearish piece out from merrill this morning. what a new world we have now even the contrarian indicators fail to work or what....
DrStool
Welcom Laz!

I think back to last summer when those 2 big pigmen firm issued major sell signals. Kind of amazing when you realize that there are actually some corners of the industry doing honest work. Still, this kind of thing almost never gets any air on Crapvision.
DrStool
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 28 2008, 08:47 AM)
DJ Fed Accepts $17 Bln In 14-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 14-Day RPs
Total accepted: $17 Bln
Total submitted: $46.25 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.492 Bln
Total submitted: $15.55 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.97%
Weighted Average: 2.97%
High-rate submitted: 2.97%
Low-rate submitted: 2.7%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $3.861 Bln
Total submitted: $12.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.25%
Weighted Average: 2.28%
High-rate submitted: 2.35%
Low-rate submitted: 1.75%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $10.647 Bln
Total submitted: $18 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.07%
Weighted Average: 3.07%
High-rate submitted: 3.08%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
*



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DrStool
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potatohead
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 08:07 AM)
Welcom Laz!

I think back to last summer when those 2 big pigmen firm issued major sell signals.  Kind of amazing when you realize that there are actually some corners of the industry doing honest work. Still, this kind of thing almost never gets any air on Crapvision.
*



I have worked for MS. It is common practice to have one strategist bullish and one strategist bearish at all times.....Helps in creating commissions for the firm and when arbitration comes up, "We told you so"

laz_the_hun
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 04:07 PM)
Welcom Laz!

I think back to last summer when those 2 big pigmen firm issued major sell signals.  Kind of amazing when you realize that there are actually some corners of the industry doing honest work. Still, this kind of thing almost never gets any air on Crapvision.
*


i remember, it might either be honest work, or it may have followed heavy positioning for the bearish case. for example prop desk traders have been massively bearish lately.
Speakeasy
Bucky does the limbo dance. Which of course means the USA is winning the competitive devaluation sweepstakes. ohmy.gif tongue.gif laugh.gif

potatohead

DJ Fed Accepts $12 Bln In 7-Day RPs

Type of transaction: 7-Day RPs
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $37.6 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $1.3 Bln
Total submitted: $13.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3%
Weighted Average: 3%
High-rate submitted: 3%
Low-rate submitted: 2.75%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $5.235 Bln
Total submitted: $12.05 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.08%
Weighted Average: 2.14%
High-rate submitted: 2.2%
Low-rate submitted: 1.65%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $5.465 Bln
Total submitted: $12.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.08%
Weighted Average: 3.08%
High-rate submitted: 3.09%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

cwd
Nouriel Roubini's testimony before Congress. A little long but he covers all the stuff we having been writing about, but it is well organized. ohmy.gif



http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/fin...ubini022608.pdf
DrStool
This morning the market followed through on 3 day cycle indicator sell signals that triggered yesterday morning, and 5 day cycle sell signals that triggered in the afternoon when I was not here. Dow just smashed the 5 day cycle AM at 12637, now at a shport line at 12580, headed for 8 day cycle MA at 12533. spx smashed 5 day at 1376.25 heading for 8 day at 1366.49
DrStool
In both cases a two day head and shoulders pattern with weak right shoulders broke down. Big reversals often start with small reversals.
DrStool
qqqq moved lower overnight to open at the 8 day cycle MA at 44.11. It briefly bounced to the 3 day cycle MA at 44.21, but is now headed back down. The 5 day cycle MA is at 44.19.
I_Am_Madness
GOOG strong today.
potatohead
DJ Fed Accepts $12 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $12 Bln
Total submitted: $24.3 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $6.89 Bln
Total submitted: $10 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 2.9%
Weighted Average: 2.92%
High-rate submitted: 2.93%
Low-rate submitted: 2.8%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.666 Bln
Total submitted: $7.8 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 1.92%
Weighted Average: 1.96%
High-rate submitted: 1.97%
Low-rate submitted: 1.75%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.444 Bln
Total submitted: $6.5 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 3.01%
Weighted Average: 3.02%
High-rate submitted: 3.02%
Low-rate submitted: 2.9%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).
DrStool
spx 5 hr cycle projection looked like 1367. Just missed it.
crooked_analyst
A total of $41 Billion today for a net add of $6.5 Billion. Total amount "sloshing" of $61 Billion.... Highest I have ever seen. ohmy.gif mad.gif
DrStool
dow hit a 5 hr cycle projection of 12585.
DrStool
qqqq hit an initial 5 hr cycle up phase projection of 44.35.
Charmin
First time I've seen USDJPY yen below 106 in awhile

It's probably significant for the carry trade so to speak.

DrStool
double top in gdx with 3 and 5 day cycle indicators on initial sell signals, but to confirm, they need to break both the 3 day cycle MA still rising at 53.13 and the 5 day rising at 52.52
Speakeasy
Let's see, the eCONomy grew at 0.6 in the 4th Q, so we must be growing at -0.6 this Q. And Freddie just reported. Where can I get me some of those shares that lose $3.97 each one? laugh.gif



Meanwhile, before the bell, Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) reported that its fourth-quarter loss grew to $2.5 billion, in the wake of the mortgage meltdown and a spike in foreclosures. That hit, which translates to a loss of $3.97 a share, was far larger than expected. Freddie's report comes just one day after Fannie Mae recorded a $3.6 billion loss. In response, Moody's put Fannie's credit rating on watch for a possible downgrade. Fobbs
cwd
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 28 2008, 09:19 AM)
I have worked for MS. It is common practice to have one strategist bullish and one strategist bearish at all times.....Helps in creating commissions for the firm and when arbitration comes up, "We told you so"
*




Don't they call that Hedging? laugh.gif
crooked_analyst
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 10:00 AM)
Don't they call that Hedging? laugh.gif
*



More like "humping" the public
cwd
QUOTE(Speakeasy @ Feb 28 2008, 09:59 AM)
Let's see, the eCONomy grew at 0.6 in the 4th Q, so we must be growing at -0.6 this Q.  And Freddie just reported.  Where can I get me some of those shares that lose $3.97 each one?   laugh.gif
Meanwhile, before the bell, Freddie Mac (nyse: FRE - news - people ) reported that its fourth-quarter loss grew to $2.5 billion, in the wake of the mortgage meltdown and a spike in foreclosures. That hit, which translates to a loss of $3.97 a share, was far larger than expected. Freddie's report comes just one day after Fannie Mae recorded a $3.6 billion loss. In response, Moody's put Fannie's credit rating on watch for a possible downgrade.  Fobbs
*




Amazing, Freddie and Fannie flying, FRE up 6%. blink.gif
They did that yesterday, great intraday shorts. biggrin.gif
cwd
Just shorted FRE, thanks for the heads up. biggrin.gif
Speakeasy
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 08:02 AM)
Amazing, Freddie and Fannie flying, FRE up 6%. blink.gif
They did that yesterday, great intraday shorts. biggrin.gif
*


Yeah, this Buy the News Bullsh*t on the finaglers, borkers, mrotgauges, and homies is hysterical behavior. blink.gif

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Speakeasy
MassturdCard puts are working nicely. It left Fib 50 behind yestidy and is aiming for Fib 62 retrace at 184.

potatohead

*WSJ: Victoria's Secret CEO: Brand Has Become 'Too Sexy'

isn't that the reason to buy their overpriced crap...
ChicagoBear
QUOTE(Jetlag @ Feb 28 2008, 03:49 AM)
That's perfect for a closed economy.
What if inflation is driven mainly by developing countries?

Why did they condone the creation of the RE bubble in the first place? were they that afraid of a deflationist spiral?
*



Good thoughts on inflation.
As the US slides into recession, it will have a lagging effect on foreign economies. Global growth will slow after after the US. If inflation falls after recession kicks in (as roxy's quote put it), then we will need to watch for it to fall after other foreign economies have slowed.

I like to watch copper as a global inflation barometer since it is used in so many ways in every country. Right now it looks like its trying to break out. based on this indicator, inflation is on the rise right now, which would also indicate global growth is still strong.

I guess we'll have to wait and see how bad the US recession gets and what effect it has on global growth and inflation.
potatohead
*WSJ: Prominent London Hedge Fund Liquidated 1 Fund -Sources


*WSJ: Peloton Partners Has Liquidated ABS Fund -Sources
cwd
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 10:07 AM)
Just shorted FRE, thanks for the heads up. biggrin.gif
*


out lost .60 dry.gif
DrStool
working on a podcast.
potatohead
DJ Bush Calls US Senate Housing Bill A Bailout For Speculators


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--U.S. President George W. Bush took aim at
Congressional proposals to help struggling homeowners, saying a proposed
Senate bill would provide an unnecessary bailout for lenders and speculators.

Bush, speaking at his first formal press conference of the year, also
expressed optimism about the U.S. economy, despite a spate of recent bad news.

"I don't think we're headed to a recession, but no question we're in a
slowdown," Bush said.

He said the $152 billion stimulus package passed earlier this month should
help sustain consumer spending. Rebate checks are expected to be sent in
mid-May, he said.

"We want to sustain the American consumer, encourage the American consumer,"
Bush said.
laz_the_hun
isnt this a bearish wedge developing in spx?
crooked_analyst
Here come the BuyBots....
laz_the_hun
i mean intraday
potatohead

*DJ Bush: Repeats Strong Dollar Policy
cwd
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 10:29 AM)
out lost .60 dry.gif
*



Back in 50c lower,Can they shake me out twice today? dry.gif
Speakeasy
QUOTE(potatohead @ Feb 28 2008, 08:43 AM)
*DJ Bush: Repeats Strong Dollar Policy
*


Monkeyboy is such a kidder!

cwd
Gold up, Bonds up blink.gif

GC J08 9612 9664 9555 9653 + 43
GC M08 9660 9710 9605 9704 + 44
TX H08 74270 74410 74065 74150 -115
US H08 N/A 117240 N/A 117210 + 1120
potatohead

*DJ Bernanke:In Worse Position To Respond To Slump Now Than In 01

Truth.....can't be
cwd
Helo Ben, We will control inflation. ohmy.gif
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