Full Version: The Unreported Crisis
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A new podcast has been posted at http://radiofreewallstreet.fm that discloses a crisis that no one is talking about.
bears have the ball again
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
QUOTE(tdultima @ Feb 28 2008, 05:17 PM)
bears have the ball again
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
For most of Feb, I've been long UNG, SDS, GLD and UNH in my 401(k) - still mostly cash. I'm in and out of long SPX calls and/or puts intraday in my trading account, and I do not hold options overnight very often. It's been one of the best hedging strategies I've ever had.
I've only had 2-3 bad days all month.
I'm long SDS now, thats it. I think we're headed back to 1270.
Check the moves in this POS the last two days. 
I had MAJOR compuker problems the past 36 hours, now almost everything works fine again, had to install new motherboard and such. Compuker problems are really a pain in the ass! 
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 05:54 PM)
Check the moves in this POS the last two days.
Or this one.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 28 2008, 05:56 PM)
I had MAJOR compuker problems the past 36 hours, now almost everything works fine again, had to install new motherboard and such. Compuker problems are really a pain in the ass!
Foxie, what do you think about the Euro?
QUOTE(cwd @ Feb 28 2008, 06:07 PM)
Foxie, what do you think about the Euro?
He enjoys earning them.
I initiated some exploratory longs here....but we might still be in limbo here.... 
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[attachmentid=96071]
The Euro? Well, what can i say? Uncharted territory!
A good part in the Yen sell-off should be due to repatriation. Fiscal year in Japan ends end of march.
Wonder if Gold sees 1000 tomorrow. Why not? Hard core sell off in Dow tomorrow, then in the late afternoon, under low volume conditions, pump Gold to 1000. Thats how they ramped EUR/USD thru 1.50, during low volume market.
A good part in the Yen sell-off should be due to repatriation. Fiscal year in Japan ends end of march.
Wonder if Gold sees 1000 tomorrow. Why not? Hard core sell off in Dow tomorrow, then in the late afternoon, under low volume conditions, pump Gold to 1000. Thats how they ramped EUR/USD thru 1.50, during low volume market.
Gonna read now IDS of the last 2 days. That should be fun!
Bought a little "Red Delicious" this morning for a trip to the Promised Land.... 
[attachmentid=96072]
Support looks strong at 118........
[attachmentid=96072]
Support looks strong at 118........
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 03:18 PM)
A new podcast has been posted at http://radiofreewallstreet.fm that discloses a crisis that no one is talking about.
Thank you for allowing a listen. Great discussion. Huge problems.
I might add that the mortgage tsunami is about to hit full force after the March sub-prime rate adjustments kicks-in.
QUOTE(tdultima @ Feb 28 2008, 04:17 PM)
bears have the ball again
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
another whipsaw, what a surprise
the only people making any money off this are the channelingstocks.com subscribers
QUOTE(Peek Paper @ Feb 28 2008, 04:54 PM)
For most of Feb, I've been long UNG, SDS, GLD and UNH in my 401(k) - still mostly cash. I'm in and out of long SPX calls and/or puts intraday in my trading account, and I do not hold options overnight very often. It's been one of the best hedging strategies I've ever had.
I've only had 2-3 bad days all month.
I'm long SDS now, thats it. I think we're headed back to 1270.
I've only had 2-3 bad days all month.
I'm long SDS now, thats it. I think we're headed back to 1270.
Good job Peek. People are making money.
Long GLD and loving it (go Gold $1000!!!)
Short Dollar is still working (despite the double-bottom everybody got so uptight about)
I don't trade these positions much.
Watching to short 10 & 30 yr. notes - getting close to pulling the trigger
Trading stocks YTD I'm about 15% towards annual goal (could be doing better)
Today was the first distribution day on the SP500 in 3 weeks. Next leg down is coming soon and I'm chomping at the bit.
USD/JPY just did fall below 105, lowest level since May2005.
also worth a note: EUR/JPY (THE carry trade) did hit 2 days ago its 62 fibo of the July 07 high (168.93) to the Aug 07 panic low (149.27), sinced then it is down more than 200 pips and right now the weekly candle looks very bearish.
If the carry trade gets unwinded stocks should fall like mad.
If the carry trade gets unwinded stocks should fall like mad.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 02:18 PM)
A new podcast has been posted at http://radiofreewallstreet.fm that discloses a crisis that no one is talking about.
Great podcast Doc.
It seems like Ben is doing what Paul Volker did back in the late 70's and early eighties, only in a different direction.
Didn't Volcker finally give up on trying to manage rates and focused on the quantity of money available. Only, he was doing to create deflation. Ben is doing it to prevent deflation.
I have just posted what I think may be one of the most important Fed reports I have ever written. I apologize for the delay. The market update will be very late tonight too. Sorry!
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2377
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2377
Rough day for homebubblers
It's a pity there's no home bubbler short ETF heavy weighted with the builders.
It's a pity there's no home bubbler short ETF heavy weighted with the builders.
QUOTE(ChicagoBear @ Feb 28 2008, 07:33 PM)
Thank you for allowing a listen. Great discussion. Huge problems.
I might add that the mortgage tsunami is about to hit full force after the March sub-prime rate adjustments kicks-in.
I might add that the mortgage tsunami is about to hit full force after the March sub-prime rate adjustments kicks-in.
The real housing crash just started back in December. Everything before that was just a warmup.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 29 2008, 08:01 AM)
also worth a note: EUR/JPY (THE carry trade) did hit 2 days ago its 62 fibo of the July 07 high (168.93) to the Aug 07 panic low (149.27), sinced then it is down more than 200 pips and right now the weekly candle looks very bearish.
If the carry trade gets unwinded stocks should fall like mad.
If the carry trade gets unwinded stocks should fall like mad.
Uncle Buck crashing as if Uncle Ben has already given the promised cut on March 18. So, watch for a 'surprise' 50 basis point cut before Friday's open. That way he can add more repos because he hasn't added enough so far.
QUOTE(roxy @ Feb 28 2008, 07:35 PM)
The real housing crash just started back in December. Everything before that was just a warmup.
Agree absolutely!
QUOTE(cbear @ Feb 28 2008, 07:44 PM)
Uncle Buck crashing as if Uncle Ben has already given the promised cut on March 18. So, watch for a 'surprise' 50 basis point cut before Friday's open. That way he can add more repos because he hasn't added enough so far.
I actually feel sorry for the guy. He did not make this mess. An incalculable disaster is brewing.
For US Americans.
There is no question that virtually all US troops will be out of Iraq in 24 months. We can't pay for it.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 07:50 PM)
Agree absolutely!
so we can assume that people just cant pay their mortage back and therefore have to sell stocks or at least cant buy stocks is NOT priced in? I also think that this isnt the case, maybe a little bit, but not that much. If we say that, then we see the Dow below 10k this year.
OK, I'm starting to see the possibility of a bearish stance here....
[attachmentid=96074]
[attachmentid=96074]
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 05:54 PM)
There is no question that virtually all US troops will be out of Iraq in 24 months.
Yup.
They'll be in Iran.
Doc, or anyone.
I can't believe the massive unexpected and unanticipated Treasury borrowing of the last 3 weeks can be explained only by a revenue shortfall. If it is just that I would love to see the facts. Of course those facts will only come out later as there is a lag in reporting tax receipts.
Uncle Sam isn't sending out those rebate check yet so if there is a large spending component to this sudden need for cash as I suspect I wonder what it is? I admit to being a bit paranoid about this. Is the Treasury socking away cash for some expected crisis or are they spending it on something secret. Something I'll leave to the imagination but it might rhyme with PPT. I actually hate to get into such 'conspiracy theory' but what the hell, there has never been a better time to become paranoid.
I'll defer to Doc on this and his take has been that the surprise borrowing has been almost totally necessitated by revenue shortfall. That's a logical assumption to make and it could be right but let's not assume anything.
I can't believe the massive unexpected and unanticipated Treasury borrowing of the last 3 weeks can be explained only by a revenue shortfall. If it is just that I would love to see the facts. Of course those facts will only come out later as there is a lag in reporting tax receipts.
Uncle Sam isn't sending out those rebate check yet so if there is a large spending component to this sudden need for cash as I suspect I wonder what it is? I admit to being a bit paranoid about this. Is the Treasury socking away cash for some expected crisis or are they spending it on something secret. Something I'll leave to the imagination but it might rhyme with PPT. I actually hate to get into such 'conspiracy theory' but what the hell, there has never been a better time to become paranoid.
I'll defer to Doc on this and his take has been that the surprise borrowing has been almost totally necessitated by revenue shortfall. That's a logical assumption to make and it could be right but let's not assume anything.
$175K oopsie
Ken and Mindy Rohlman recently bought a four-bedroom house with a pool for $375,000. The owner had turned down a $550,000 offer last year.
DOH!
Ken and Mindy Rohlman recently bought a four-bedroom house with a pool for $375,000. The owner had turned down a $550,000 offer last year.
DOH!
QUOTE(shorty @ Feb 28 2008, 08:04 PM)
Yup.
They'll be in Iran.
They'll be in Iran.
Or Tal-Paki-banistan.
I don't feel bad for Ben.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
QUOTE(elh @ Feb 28 2008, 08:14 PM)
I don't feel bad for Ben.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
I still cannot fathom, assuming he is in fact an intelligent person and not irrationally self-confident, why he would take the job. Unless it starts with Swiss and ends with bank account, which I doubt.
QUOTE(elh @ Feb 28 2008, 08:14 PM)
I don't feel bad for Ben.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
He wrote that stupid helicopter paper. He provided academic authority to Greenspan's move in 2001. He took the job.
Alternatively, he could have not written those anti-deflationary papers. He could have actually had a conscience and voted against the Chairman. He could have avoided taking one of the worst jobs at one of the worst times available.
He seems like one of those homeowners suckered into taking a bad loan.
he is a big boy and legal age if he doesn't like the action then he can resign.
I think we may be starting a third of a third of a Third on Uranium shares, going back years and years.
QUOTE(DrStool @ Feb 28 2008, 06:21 PM)
I have just posted what I think may be one of the most important Fed reports I have ever written. I apologize for the delay. The market update will be very late tonight too. Sorry!
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2377
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/?p=2377
Doc...fantastic update. I particularly appreciated the plain language and straight forwrad implications you used. With the amount of information i monitor on a daily basis, i can sometimes struggle with the Pro updates.
This will be fascinating to watch the next few weeks/months.
QUOTE(The End @ Feb 28 2008, 08:54 PM)
I think we may be starting a third of a third of a Third on Uranium shares, going back years and years.
From your mouth to the Lizard King's ears.
I took small positions in JNR Resources, UEX, Strathmore, Bayswater, Uranium Participation, and Crosshair Exploration last week. The next week or two should be telling.
herei n OZ the market is being spanked but the one major Uranium stock PDN is up 7%.
I have a large position in an Uranium explorer,so I hope you are right TE.
I also hope they find some uranium first..
I have a large position in an Uranium explorer,so I hope you are right TE.
I also hope they find some uranium first..
Michael what are your preferred Uranium plays, I looked at about 40 Uranium company charts over the weekend on stockcharts. Mostly BB and juniors, only found a couple to get excited about. TIA
We have seen affects in the market, but without earnings who could seriously buy into the notion we're going to Dow 15,000. At least we know if your a bear and hate everything you wouldn't wake up one morning and your brother would say - "Hey Mikey! He likes it!"
"approximately 450 members of the S&P 500 index have reported earnings declines averaging -16%, according to Bloomberg.'" http://www.canslim.net/mc/MCCurrent.asp
"approximately 450 members of the S&P 500 index have reported earnings declines averaging -16%, according to Bloomberg.'" http://www.canslim.net/mc/MCCurrent.asp
Is the Turd of the Turd of the Turd the Big Crash or the Big Boner?
Not familiar with E-Wave.
Seriously...boolish or bearish?
Not familiar with E-Wave.
Seriously...boolish or bearish?
Wells Fargo has named nearly every California county a “Severely Distressed Market” which requires LTV reductions of 5% for any conforming loan over 75% LTV and also eliminates financing over 75% LTV for any non-conforming loan. The Wells Fargo Mortgage Express product (which is Wells Fargo’s stated income/stated asset program) is also not permitted in “Severely Distressed Market” areas.
source
source
QUOTE(summoner @ Feb 28 2008, 07:22 PM)
Michael what are your preferred Uranium plays, I looked at about 40 Uranium company charts over the weekend on stockcharts. Mostly BB and juniors, only found a couple to get excited about. TIA
which ones did you like the best?
QUOTE(lineup32 @ Feb 28 2008, 08:28 PM)
he is a big boy and legal age if he doesn't like the action then he can resign.
General Announcement!!!
I would appreciate any timely inside information in this regard. I promise I'l keep it discreete, AND I'll be able to make it worth your while!!
j/k*
* required legal disclaimer
This is my office on a regular day:
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This is my office this afternoon:
[attachmentid=96078]
Explosion in the basement, then a fire. We evacuated pretty fast, but my keys and car are still inside.
[attachmentid=96077]
This is my office this afternoon:
[attachmentid=96078]
Explosion in the basement, then a fire. We evacuated pretty fast, but my keys and car are still inside.
QUOTE(fxfox @ Feb 28 2008, 07:57 PM)
so we can assume that people just cant pay their mortage back and therefore have to sell stocks or at least cant buy stocks is NOT priced in? I also think that this isnt the case, maybe a little bit, but not that much. If we say that, then we see the Dow below 10k this year.
I never draw any assumptions from stock prices other than stock prices. Second, I do not believe in the "priced in" concept. Third, I would not draw any conclusions about price targets from anything other than stock prices. I study stock prices for the purpose of identifying trends, turning points and likely price targets. I think that there's no logical support to the idea of extend the ability of stock prices to forecast anything beyond stock prices.
I saw the bong market smokin' up today...but...oh my!
It looks like you took it to a new level!!!
It looks like you took it to a new level!!!
QUOTE(Jorma @ Feb 28 2008, 08:05 PM)
Doc, or anyone.
I can't believe the massive unexpected and unanticipated Treasury borrowing of the last 3 weeks can be explained only by a revenue shortfall. If it is just that I would love to see the facts. Of course those facts will only come out later as there is a lag in reporting tax receipts.
Uncle Sam isn't sending out those rebate check yet so if there is a large spending component to this sudden need for cash as I suspect I wonder what it is? I admit to being a bit paranoid about this. Is the Treasury socking away cash for some expected crisis or are they spending it on something secret. Something I'll leave to the imagination but it might rhyme with PPT. I actually hate to get into such 'conspiracy theory' but what the hell, there has never been a better time to become paranoid.
I'll defer to Doc on this and his take has been that the surprise borrowing has been almost totally necessitated by revenue shortfall. That's a logical assumption to make and it could be right but let's not assume anything.
I can't believe the massive unexpected and unanticipated Treasury borrowing of the last 3 weeks can be explained only by a revenue shortfall. If it is just that I would love to see the facts. Of course those facts will only come out later as there is a lag in reporting tax receipts.
Uncle Sam isn't sending out those rebate check yet so if there is a large spending component to this sudden need for cash as I suspect I wonder what it is? I admit to being a bit paranoid about this. Is the Treasury socking away cash for some expected crisis or are they spending it on something secret. Something I'll leave to the imagination but it might rhyme with PPT. I actually hate to get into such 'conspiracy theory' but what the hell, there has never been a better time to become paranoid.
I'll defer to Doc on this and his take has been that the surprise borrowing has been almost totally necessitated by revenue shortfall. That's a logical assumption to make and it could be right but let's not assume anything.
I'm not assuming anything. It's all there in the daily Treasury statement and other tax data, especially at the state level. Russ Winter has been documenting this revenue problem all along. One of his Winterisms that applies is One Trick Pony. That's in reference to the bubble taxes. That was a 1 time deal, but they predicated spending on it as if it were going to be perpetual. Follow his reports to get a better handle on it. http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter
QUOTE(Goldmember @ Feb 28 2008, 10:09 PM)
I saw the bong market smokin' today...but...oh my!
It looks like you took it to a new level!!!
It looks like you took it to a new level!!!
Next time I go down to the basement after lunch, I'm taking the roach back with me.
Peru is hot
QUOTE(Private Skidmark @ Feb 28 2008, 08:18 PM)
I still cannot fathom, assuming he is in fact an intelligent person and not irrationally self-confident, why he would take the job. Unless it starts with Swiss and ends with bank account, which I doubt.
As a good US American, I suspect that he really believes his own academic swill.
He's going to get a lesson in reality.
Everybody remembers John Law. Does anyone remember who was chosen to clean up the mess?
Does anyone remember who was the Roman emperor after Nero?
QUOTE
Brokerage firms face 'grim' near-term outlook, Bernstein warns
Marketwatch - February 28, 2008 10:09 AM ET
Related Quotes
Symbol Last Chg
LEH Trade 54.68 -2.78
MER Trade 51.66 -2.55
BSC Trade 84.22 -3.08
GS Trade 176.70 -4.10
MS Trade 44.40 -1.48
Real time quote.
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Brokerage firms including Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch face a "grim" near-term outlook because the credit crisis and the accompanying unwinding of leveraged investments throughout financial markets will continue well into 2008, Bernstein Research analyst Brad Hintz warned on Thursday.
Recent failures of auctions in the municipal bond market won't affect leading brokers much, but the problem is a symptom of wider trouble for these firms, Hintz explained.
The credit crisis has left brokerage firms holding more "illiquid" assets, which can't be easily traded. In 2006, 22% of the industry's total balance sheet assets were "less liquid." That rose to 34% in the fourth quarter of 2007, Hintz noted.
That's caused counterparties and creditors to pull back from the brokers and limit discretionary lending to the business. That, in turn, has forced brokers to limit the deals they commit money to and reduce support to some clients, such as those in the muni market, Hintz explained.
"The problems of the credit market and the resultant de-leveraging cycle of Wall Street, its hedge fund clients and the conduits Wall Street invented may have some time to go," Hintz wrote in a note to clients. "With the institutional businesses such as M&A and equity underwriting turning down, a prolonged credit crisis roiling the bond market and troubled assets 'frozen' on brokerage balance sheets, the near-term outlook for these stocks is grim."
The analyst has market-perform ratings on Lehman (LEH), Merrill (MER), Bear Stearns (BSC) and Goldman Sachs (GS).
He rates Morgan Stanley (MS) outperform because the firm has a more diverse set of businesses.
BULLISH!!!
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