Well, it's not the first time I've been accused of being overly dramatic.

I may be early, but I'll stand on my prognostigatorial record and let time be the judge.

When all else fails.

poppy montgomery

CNBS,WSJ reporting Airbus wins DOD 40bil contract for new air refuelers.

what a whipsaw

everything from the 35 minutes of terror completely erased

bears still have the ball

but the broads are still trapped in a trading range for the last 4 weeks

a significant breach of the 1310 area would be interesting

well, seems like the bribed better than Boeing. That aircaraft duopoly is one big farce.

Gonna short the living shit out of DAX monday morning when i get an according signal.

Are we gonna ever hear from Wndysrf again? His attacks on bears were relentless for YEARS. Love to hear what he has to say now...

He's posting on clearstation and boards.prudentbear.com

tight trading range is good. Means, that once it breaks there will be a big move. Guess it will be to the downside.

I think he has moved on to harrassing others....

[attachmentid=96109]

then again the last couple of years was a bull market

so mark was completely right

We definetly broke support.

That's what I was thinking.

YOWZA.....

[attachmentid=96111]

Northrup is one of the winners too, but bringing in Airbus.... stinky stinky.

Whoa- who's THAT?!

As far as the last couple of years being a bull market, it was actually 5 years. The point is, now that it's fallen apart, what does Windy have to say NOW?!

LOL...that "35 minutes of terror" phrase still makes me chuckle.

Doc:

"Well, then....

I knew some pharma hucksters that were making that kind of money 15 years ago. What happened since then? "

Yep, they used to. One of my wifes close friends graduated from college about 20 years ago and walked right into selling Claritin for Schering-Plough...with C level exercise prices. They were literally throwing options at reps then...she is now in her early forties and retired with a 7 figure portfolio.

The drug industry changed their Sales focus to a marketing paradigm when Pfizer flooded the market with reps...they call it "share of voice" and it's why you see a bazillion little hotties running around trying to get Doc signatures. Average starting salary is running at about $55,000 now for entry level.

They'll all be gone soon enough though, almost all the companies having been making major cuts. When they were making 200 plus a year, they actually knew their stuff and weren't mindless, signature chasing robots. The system really is busted...but i think the Pharm companies are one of the smaller parts of the problem, cost wise.

Milo Minderbender style!


First, there is Milo Minderbender, Heller's prototypical capitalist. Milo is the mess officer for Yossarian's squadron, who develops a trading “syndicate,” out of which he makes huge profits. Gradually, as the syndicate grows in power, Milo includes in his operations the armies of the rival nations. For one battle he gets paid by both the US and German armies—by the former for organizing the attack, by the latter the defense.


http://www.wsws.org/articles/2000/jan2000/hel-j06.shtml

Poppy Montgomery .....new market babe

OOps....I got my Poppies mixed up...

Everyone was talking about Poppy Harlow on IDS this morning...

[attachmentid=96113]

Not Poppy Montgomery....

[attachmentid=96112]

Sorry for the confusion...

No problem- either way it works for me!

(by the way, are these chicks sisters or something? Who would have thought that girls named "Poppy" could be so good looking?!)

He flipped flopped in 2006 corrections, he turned bearish on the day that marked the bottom on one of those corrections. Yup, one full day bear, turned bullish the following day when the market didn't tank. Haven't read anything from other boards though. He might be more worried about his job (didn't his work at the bank have something to do with RE?)... I think he was pretty sanguine about his bull/bear stance, so he'll be doing ok probably (or whipsawed if we go sideways for a long time).

I'm curious though, did his girlfriend buy in at the crest of the RE market?

Windy was bearish for a long,long time(he used to post his shorts),then he turned bullish and did what most bears who turn bullish do,he blamed bears for being bearish.

They act like scorned lovers.They turn feral and they spew out their hatred for bears.

They then proceed to mock bears for being so stupid.

He also became very bullish on Cali property right at the top.

He was trying to get his girlfriend into a property at or near the top.

He was also very bullish on warehouses and Martha Stewart designer homes from memory.

yesterday

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...94-3122,00.html

today

http://business.theage.com.au/city-pacific...80229-1vx7.html

the high fliers are dropping like flies in OZ.

IT WILL BE UGLY WHEN IT TRICKLES DOWN TO THE MINI HIGH FLIERS IN THEIR MCMANSIONS.

Hard lesson


Eddy Groves, the chief executive of ABC Learning Centres, last year took his beloved basketball team, the Brisbane Bullets, on an all-expenses paid, end-of-season trip to Las Vegas. By all reports Groves drives a Ferrari Superamerica, with a price tag of about $675,000, and flies in a Citation CJ3 jet, which cost about $7.5 million.

Michael King, the former chief executive of the financial services and property empire MFS, spent an estimated $20 million building five polo fields at Elysian Fields in the Gold Coast hinterland. In July last year, King saddled up to lead his polo team, also called Elysian Fields, to win the Warwickshire Cup in Sussex, Britain. James Packer's Ellerston White played in the same competition; King's team featured the professional Chilean polo player Jose Donoso and Italian professional Marco Di Paolo.



http://business.smh.com.au/hard-lesson/20080229-1vxg.html

Instead of trying to remember, the posts are all there for the record. Right up to October 12, 2007.

I have a question. If a person is wildly, hysterically bullish at the absolute top, does that make the fact that they were bullish during the bull phase mean that they were really smart, or just bullish.

There's a difference.

Riding a trend is one thing. Recognizing when it's over is another.

Look at Futia.

Doc there are a few articles out today about Canadian banks in trouble, rescues being discussed.

If you have links, I'd love to see them.

Old news by a few weeks, but still abso%^&%^lutely UFB:

Canadian bank chiefs say recent injections of billions of dollars of funding into the struggling banking sector around the globe and in Canada are a sign of strength in the industry.

"It shows there is a lot of capital support out there for major financial institutions," said Royal Bank of Canada chief exeutive Gord Nixon.

The injection of billions of dollars of capital by sophisticated investors "should give confidence in the marketplace," said Bank of Nova Scotia chief executive Rick Waugh. "To me it's a very good sign," Mr. Waugh said.

The comments from the top Canadian bank executives were made at an investor conference organized by RBC Capital Markets....

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=239700

The bell hasn't rung yet. They, you know who they are, are clinging to the hope that a bell will never ring. Instead just a reasonably slow grind down down down. Not in the markets mind you necessarily, but in life as we know it in general.

I'm thinking the bell will ring. A bankruptcy or three, banks or GM or the like, which finally puts the lies in the grave.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vemi01A7eH8

I'd like to think that the bear just got another confirmation when the SPX this week couldn't get over the 50 dma.

It's always satisfying to finish the job. I'd like to believe the bear still needs to finish the job. There was no fear in the VIX recently.

I even wrote a friend last week and said to throw out the charts - fundamentals do mean something once and awhile. Are we going up on affects (IBM, Ambac, Bernanke) or are we going to go up on no earnings?

Of course, I took an early in and early out trade in TWM and the 35 minutes of terror blew it away. I sometimes feel the way Doc does. I need to fade the charts and be led by a little bear faith.

redundant post, erased by author

cHARMIN,

There was no fear in the VIX recently.


THIS GUY AGREES.



At the moment the stock market is in a very precarious position. Right at the top in October I issued warnings in my October 5th monthly newsletter, titled Something is Wrong with the Banks, just a few days before the correction began. In this newsletter I warned of an upcoming correction and told subscribers that I would not be issuing anymore stock picks until we saw an end to it.

Since then I have stated over and over again in podcasts, bulletins, and free postings, that I did not see any signs of a bottom. Despite the market rally yesterday I still see no signs of a bottom. The market has yet to stabilize and sentiment in the options market according to the VIX and put/call ratio is still subdued while the Investors Intelligence survey is not registering the fear readings associated with bottoms.

When the market began to correct I had an initial target of 1450 on the S&P 500. If that broke I thought the S&P 500 would likely bottom above the 1400 level. We bounced off of that level yesterday, but unfortunately I do not think it is going to hold either, because the sentiment associated with bottoms simply isn't there.

This means that the market is at risk of having a major panic bottom like we saw in August sometime in the next week. The DOW could close near its August lows and then break it in a panic washout. If this happens it would likely be the bottom and I expect to be a big buyer, but the process will shake lots of people out of the market and cause others to fear buying.

http://www.safehaven.com/article-9593.htm

This is an extension of the sheet my son-in-law tipped me off to last summer. Since then it has gone public in a big way. When they first started reporting it the magnitude of the problem was being grossly under reported. I suspect that the same is true now, but I haven't talked to him about it in recent months. We're going in the crapper. It's just not news anymore.

There's a distinction between being right and being bullish. Carl Futia had a great track record for 4 years. Now he's the butt of all our jokes.

Bulls can look right for years. So can permabears when the time is right. The test of whether anybody is any good or not is whether they have the ability to recognize intermediate turning points, and especially major turning points.

Good point. Someone who is a perma-bull (even if they do have one bearish day at some time) is not really smart-- even though in recent years the market has been bullish except for 2000-2002, so they were right. A tape recorded message screaming "Buy buy buy" (that you play to yourself every day) would have given exactly the same message through the whole bull phase too, but it isn't smart. It's just repetitive.

Are those major trends that hard to spot?

Are those turning points that hard to spot?

Whether the market rebounds on Monday could depend how it interprets ISM Manufacturing numbers released on Monday morning. I decided to take a look at some of the data to see if I could glean some information that would allow me to guess its direction. It was just last month when bad ISM non-Manufacturing data roiled the market for one of its largest declines.

The ISM monthly data goes back to 1948. The average value comes to 52.9 and 43.1 during recessions. Clearly, this is a significant drop off in manufacturing activity. The highest reading was in July 1950 at 77.5 and the lowest in May 1980 at 29.2. Last month's reading of 50.7 was only slightly off the historical average, indicating that we were not in a manufacturing recession. The consensus number for February is 49, again, this is way above historical average for recessionary periods.

The month of February happens to have the highest ISM numbers, edging out December and August. Curiously during 10 past recessions that included January and February, 6 out of 10 times, the month of February had significantly higher readings than January.

Based on this fact and high(albeit limited data) correlation between months of January and February, I am concluding that, this is one number that is not going to roil the market.

This is hardly exhaustive analysis, but, it makes me feel better about my long entry. Table1 summarizes the data.

That was written in November. Curious that he would post it on Safehaven now and not state that date that it was written. I don't get it. I mean, I can understand doing a little promo, but please make it clear when the piece was written.

Fear? You wanna see pure, unadulterated, cold-sweat, rock-in-the-pit-of-your-stomach fear?

How about seven U.S Treasury issues bid at negative yields??!!

Check it out

Something wicked this way comes. You better believe it.

Whatever the ISM news, the impact on the market will last about an hour. Then it's back to business.

Following the various and sundry economic news releases is a diversion, a detour that leads to a dead end. It completely misses the point of what is driving the market. Virtually everyone is missing it, just like they all missed the story of how tight the Fed was for all of last year and through January.

This story is even bigger. It's the biggest story of them all, maybe the biggest financial and economic story in the US in the last 75 years and not one single media outlet is reporting it. To the best of my knowledge, no one is reporting it, not even bloggers. But there is not one shred of doubt in my mind that this is going to drastically affect not just the market, but our very way of life.

So I'm reporting it and I will continue to report it. Sometime in the next couple of months the major media will begin to pick up the story. It's just too big. I suspect that by then the Dow will be a thousand points lower.

It seems very few "pundits" are good at changing camps. I say that is a sign of the best, which frankly, you never see.
I have a much better respect these days for perma bull joe battapaglia. He turned bearish about 5 months ago...I literally fell out of me chair when I heard this. Joe is in my good graces again.

It took three different firms to get him straight. He is playing a part. (actor).

When I was in high school, I was always late to the parties.....but at least I got there, and when I did, I had a good time.
Better late then never.

what a busy week. worked eight days in a row, 12 hours per day. am pooped.

>The drug companies pay good looking young women 200-300k a year to schmooze doctors here in the US

i don't know how much they're paid, but some of them are very sexy. never been on a drug-company sponsored junket, but i'd never accept one, if offered.

missed FXP in the lower 80s. but i donged some today around 87.5.

didn't sell my SKF (donged around 113) despite its dip over the last week. knew it would come back up for air. c'mon, mister market, keep drilling a deeper hole. . . . maybe you'll uncover a subterranean civilization.

I would like to see the After pictures of those warehouses in the desert.

Roxy, how do you use those spreads?

here ya go.