Silver SLV certainly closed February better than my expectations. Breathtaking. Almost like standing on a mountain peak looking across the continental divide.

So I was looking to buy yesterday (Friday) and looked for the biggest losers on my watch list. Bought Some PAL.

Apollo Gold appears to have broken out of a three year pennant:











I do indeed have a position.

re: Juniors... Whatever the technical or strategic trading reasons, it's still amazing to me that within these types of dynamic physical metals moves, and the mainstream media's in your face public PMs discussion environment, that the juniors as a class are STILL perfoming so poorly (some even negatively) when you compare their current prices to where they traded last year when physical was 50% lower than where it is now.

Junior miners must be the most undervalued equity play on the planet. Lots and lots of new holders HAD to have bought the juniors this past week, and those buyers got GREAT prices, all things considered. Will they now get shanked out of those buys from THESE levels ? I sure hope not (because many of us bought long ago at prices not that much lower then where we are today), but new players got in so easy without what appeared to be much shareprice demand sensitivity. I'm concerned and confused.

GOLD:

Alleluah and praise the lord of statistics
As of today my 12 months are filled for the 9 th time since 1999 with one inversion at 18 months
This means as far as I am concerned this is another short term top this time in march ( between today and the end of march)
I am still counting on the daily cause I want to sell some to be able to buy back some and I figured out the aprox date
Needless to say my selling will not based on this kind of statistics They just gave the be ready signal
My selling will be based on a combination of RSI long and RSI shorter and RSI short combined with either a volume blow off or a momentum blow off

Hadjin
Read Sinclair
Everybody is short the juniors and long the mayors
I have no doubt that is because it is the only way of buying a junior cheap paying with the shares of a mayor

the bradley turn is the 8th, i have looking @the 7th as a possible turn +- 3 trading days. bradley turns have worked well. the fed comes up and bernake has already said they will lower.
i have no doubt that the juniors will explode. i dont know when, but it will happen. sure its disappointing. but i am patient. @some point the majors will go shopping and when they do, folks will speculate on the juniors.
dharma

I know my juniors have outperformed the indexes over the past few weeks and I know many others have as well.

I own some Kimber (KBX)
Looking at buying about three more juniors.
Ideas/ suggestions?
Tanks

Todd... Congratulations, I'm obviously in the wrong ones.

When I run a performance comparison of Most Amex listed juniors against their respective ETFs of SLV and GLD for 1 year, I come up with the miners putting in much poorer performance. I know that there are a couple of exceptions, and that most Jrs produce both metals (though I tried to use miners with a predominate asset class), but I'm speaking of the more established or liquid Juniors; those that would likely be targets of retail investors.

Mark Hulbert paints his sentiment picture for this sector

Why gold still has room to rise

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/sent...BEEE3D21D970%7D

Hadjin

Yes over one year many juniors are underperforming. I was commenting about the shorter term... specifically the past few weeks pointing out that perhaps the tide has turned a bit. How are your juniors doing during that period? Hopefully this is the beginning of something good and you will realize some great gains over the next few months to make up for the previous diffcult period.

Goldcorp:

A weathervane for the Indices.

We could see a small pullback in a tiny 4th wave over the next few days.

The horizontal lines are the usual fib retracement levels for wave iii from February 13th to the 28th.

Note the massive support at 39 - 40. Former resistance, gap support, maximum retracement level, wave iv of the prior impulse....etc. If it heads back to thst level, it's a gift.

There are still more 3's of 3's ahead.

Wave structure:

I've posted that in the big picture, we're in wave 5 of (I) up. Juniors outperform in wave 3's.

More particularly, we're in the early stages of 3 of 5 of (I). So some juniors will outperform.

At wave (III)'s, and particularly at 3 of (III), the juniors outperform and sentiment soars.

Right now, there's a credit crunch and fears of energy prices. The junior explorers and small producers are facing headwinds.

Until sentiment favours "wealth in the ground", stick with the seniors. Maybe next fall for the juniors.

I like ARU.TO. I don't own it but I convinced my investment club to take a position if it broke 8.20 up--primarily on the island created by the gaps and the clear reversal pattern into December.

I'm worried that this could be a "flat" correction, so if it hits $10.00 I'll want to re-assess it.

EGO makes a fast break for the top of the long trading range resistance in the $7 area. Be interesting to see it clear the deck and make everyone a winner with a breakout.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1204431904.png

My investment club:

They were primarily chartered accountants. The club was formed in the mid-70's when most of them were articling students to C.A. firms. So they all traded fundamentals. As the years went by, non C.A.'s were admitted to the club, including myself.

It's a "men" only club.

Right now it's a very diverse group, despite its origins. About 25% are retired, some are entrepreneurs, some are CFO's, 2 are lawyers, 3 stockbrokers, and only one member engaged in the private practise of accountacy.

I joined in the spring of 1987. I warned them of a "crash" coming. They ignored me, so I've always been a perma-bear and Goldbug in their eyes.

Over the years, I've talked about charts and done some power-point presentations to the group. There have been only a few converts to t.a., however.

These guys are very savvy when it comes to local politics, legislation, and general economic trends.

But they sure are wrong about the markets.

Right now, we're long financials and rails for the last year. Of course, they invested for yield, I guess, due to the aging demographics of the club. These investments are off about 25%. We took recent positions in the Oils, adding to prior positions, so we're about even.

But once a month, 20 out of 25 guys get together, have a few beers, have a good supper, and pontificate about the market. Four times a year we have major social events--a golf tournament, a christmas party, an eco-adventure (lately a one day canoe trip or a leisurely bike ride), and a trip to a Broadway play in Toronto) with our wives.

That's been more rewarding than the lost profits that I've sustained.

If you're not a member of a club, join one or form one. I've had a great time over the last 20 years, socially, though it was hardly rewarding, economically.

Something new

New Deutsche Bank ETNs provide leveraged, short exposure to gold

"Deutsche Bank (DB), which already manages several ETNs, listed the new gold offerings on the NYSE Arca. They are DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ), DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP) and DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ)."
http://www.sharebuilder.com/sharebuilder/R...&Source=ETFNews

or
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/080229/etf.html?.v=1

My near pseudo relationship who's in the mining sector is CEO of WGW and COO of SBR.TO. He liked CGC.TO for potential. I use to drive by the WGW tailing fields in the southern California desert right after the sand dunes end, small world. WGW looks like a takeover target like most penny stocks. Article

We have to be at the end of or very close to the end of the bullish cycle you have alluded to these past few months.

HUI 460-465 would be a nice place to reload ya think?

Did someone say fractal?

To post I use public charts as the one attached
My own charts go back to pre 1999
All periods were 12 months as measured by the modified slow stochs
I modified the stat parameters myself
There was once an inversion with a period of 18 months
According to this tool I am now ready to sell 10-20% ala Sinclair this month since chances are 8 out of 9 that this month is a peak and one out of nine that it will go on for another 6 months
My 107 average daily fits perfectly in this model and like I said I will use three types of RSI to give the second warning and volume or momentum for the actual day or hour to sell . I now got a realtime pc based trading system I use two times a year . One time to sell and one time to buy back.
As you can see on the charts buyback time may be brutal and swift

ageka, this is an election year, which may skew the market til may. in addition to the inflating the cbs are doing, the election adds fuel to the fire as lots of $$$ is spent to publicize the candidate. i expect the broads will bottom this month, which could lend support to the pms.
for me, we are @ the base of the parabolic, there still will be corrections. they will be short in time and could still be deep in price, they are gifts. @present, i still think this run has more to go.
as for the juniors, they are obviously speculative and that phase comes a little later in the game. their gains will be outstanding.
all the drivers for the gold bull are present in spades, as long as that is the case, this is the back i want to ride. rest assured that few will ride the back of the bull. there will be verying reasons to get out. the real money is made sitting on his back. dharma

As with PMPIX, I take any profits from it and buy minor miners. I just might start doing that with the few majors I have like GG since I end up owning the minors the hard way when GG buys them out.

Seems like they tried to keep the lid on silver and now it's near $20. The announcement of selling gold by the world banks took gold to the $1000 threshold (just like Sinclair said it would). If you didn't play and catch the the last correction in gold you'd be paying a high price to get back in.

Like I said
I expect to get the signals to sell 10% in the next 30 days
If it keeps going up after I sold I do not care
If it comes down 20% from the peak which would be 10% higher then today and I buy back I have an extra 3% yearly gain
I play my statistics safely and I have to do this not to die of boredome

41.20 is support for GG.

Meanwhile, Yen is going to challenge the general equity market even more in the coming days....the drop below usd-yen 106 was serious.

Does anyone have an opinion on Franco-Nevada? RGLD is a large portion of my portfolio and I was considering this as well. I realize that its royalties are not solely derived from PMs, but most are.

Try this forum for FNV.TO (or FNNVF.PK). The chart looks good so far.

I was just looking at the spreads for physical. Look like it's -.20 (bid) and +.60 (ask) at CNI. I think that 4% is going to widen soon; maybe even from both ends.

Thanks. It's gone pretty much straight up since the IPO.

anyone else thinking that the shares are going to bust a move? and soon?
dharma

I expect 20% up before 15 march on half the shares I hold
But that is what was it greenspan called unsustainanle exhuberance or suuumthang like that

wanted to share this one because the pattern produces very reliable results. i don't own it, was viewing their video at http://piedmontmining.com/video.asp.

Piedmont Mining - Gold in Nevada - good land package.

pennant formation - coming to a head.

Hard to tell when this move started in spot gold. I think around $912 or so. $1012 gives you a $100 move and probably a pullback and battle at the $1000 level. Not sure why you would sell to hold US$ unless you play for a big correction, may not be worth the effort.

My PAL is doing all right today after I bought the drop Friday. WGW is doing well after I put in a order last night and caught the opening price.

Spot silver is dragging SLW back up.

I own 6 crisp brandnew dollar bills
And that is all I intend to own for the rest of my life
My attempts at buying or selling are all in Canadian Dollars thank you no usdollars for me only for us

Nice to see the mining sector act like a normal bull with the regular markets down.

This feels like 2003 or even like 2005 on the move up.

, exactly Charmin. those looking for 460-470 to reload are DREAMING...they better keep smoking the wacky weed to stay delusional to mask the pain and jealousy.

that being said, i'm looking for a 1-week ONLY top tomorrow. 525-530 HUI...

I held AGT forever and sold after it hit 50 one day, oh well.

on the doorstop of $1,000 gold .. silver smashes through $20 .. and quiet as a mouse here .. bullllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllish!!

I will sell 10% at the top which I did since 1999 and I will buy back lower but much too soon like I did since 1999

Hadjin give APMEX a call as well. The trading desk opens early in the morning for buying and selling.

Seems like a bunch of harden seasoned veterans in here that have been waiting patiently for this move for a long time, in the miners that is.

No one ever gets to excited in here.

Actually went down to $895 but who's counting?

Market Vane reports 90% bulls for Gold in their latest tally.

Thanks Trader..

I just heard Louise Yamada (sp?) on Crapvision, she charted Gold and said "$1050 is in the bag", "could go to $1150" before any consolidation.

She has targets for Gold of 1250, 1500 and 2,000, but did not give dates.

She expects this move in the Dollar to reach 62. She said they had long ago, a long term forecast for the Dollar at .60

She said she has Oil going to $125.

I have heard her in the past (she was on with Dillion Rattegon), she seems very very genuine and credible to me.

Anytime hadjin. Yamada is very good. Thanks.

CDE:

"I'm sometimes early--but never wrong" said B.V. tongue in cheek.

Last week I suggested that CDE would have an 8% up day. Got close today.

I also said that if it took out $5.10, there's a pathway directly up to $5.50.

The low volume indicates that the shorts didn't get squeezed---yet.

Kramer.. Promoting/recommending/pumping AEM on his show.. pretty hard too. Says Gold to $1600 and that the entire Market cap of the AMEX miners is only $200 Bil, so he says the entire industry is undervalued compared to just Exxon ($400 Bil) or GE ($250 Bil).

Says don't take profits on Silver.

As opposed to my impression of sincere Louise Yamada, Mr. Cramer is ... well, well, questionable at best.