Another mad rush to the bell. The slope of hope in action. It's tiresome, but it keeps the sheeple in the game. That's the last thing the pigmen want. Sheeple selling.

I love this ABK thing. As if 3 billion in financing for them makes a hoot of difference.

Marie, Ambac is going to be bailed out tommorow or the next day, or the next. Did Charlie Gasbag make his maybe report at 3:30?

SNL hour, Dennis Kneale, noticing that APPL, is down wants to know why Jobs is not announcing a buyback.They have 18b that is burning a hole in somebody's pocket. He is unbelievable.

It is all in the perception. It doesn't make any difference except it allows funds to keep garbage in their portfolios as long as they have a AAA rating. The plan is that the fumble managers who bought the C@#P will be gone along with their bonuses before the new managers will have to announce that this AAA paper is actually worth ZERO This will take several years to play out.

See, that Jobs is smart. He wants to buy back. Someday. At much lower prices.

Here is one that looks like it should soon head south, but it will probably move higher to shake out all the weak hands before that happens.

ALERT!:

ABK AMBAC Fincl says unlikely to announce any capital raising deal Tuesday, according to source - Reuters (10.72 +0.78) -Update-


LOL!!! This is just comical. They better hope they aren't driving all the shorts out of this market with these last hour ass-blasts, b/c if this thing ever really cracks from j6p selling there is going to be precious little covering to support it.

The more I think about Ben's speech today, the more desparate he sounds. These are the last three paragraphs of his speech to mortgage bankers, begging for writedowns of principal. All this in the name of stabilizing households and neighborhoods.


TEXT OF SPEECH

Thanks for bringing leh to our attention. I've selected puts and am awaiting some sort of backtest.

I would guess that they have driven most of the weak hands like me out.

cwd,

they kicked EVERYONE like a sandbag today.

Awww CWD

Give the guy a break-Uh, I mean, Have some pity--after all, he lost his Captain Midnight decoder ring and now hes got to eat thirty more boxes of Wheaties---to regain his cryptographic powers...

Interestingly, a poll was taken in the local madhouses and he came out thirteenth---who won? He did. The first 12 places were left totally empty---

beardrech Is there noone alive who can or will stop this man???He thrives on the notiriety of being unashamedly demented ...An attitude I ordinarily respect...

fxfox,

those German pilots are pretty cool in a crisis.

you know, with enough Weissbier you can handle that

Hypothesis: If the "short & shallow recession" turns out to be true, today will have been the bottom to buy.

That's a rosy predicate, but I expect it to make the rounds if the end-of-day ramp has follow through.

The big confessional. As Shorty said the other day, these homies aren't worth wasting time on.
A fumble manager on CNBS was touting the homies because they were down so much they coundn't go lower. Even Dylan Radican admitted that they could go lower. I would guess they are going to chop around until one of the big ones declares BK.
Anybody have any ideas on the weakest ones above 20d/share?

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating.
The NAHB's latest forecast calls for new-home sales to drop 22% this year, bringing sales 55% under the peak reached in late 2005. Housing starts are predicted to tumble 31% in 2008, putting starts 60% off their high of three years ago.
"More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread," said David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, on a conference call with reporters. "Housing is in a major contraction mode and will be another major, heavy weight on the economy in the first quarter."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hous...e&dist=printTop

I remember getting my Captain Midnight decoder in the mail. That was when I first started learning about scams. I had been scammed, a little piece of plastic

I'm not sure when might be a good time to buy housing again......2012??

[attachmentid=96184]

Probably about 2020. especially if they start doing stuff like requiring a downpayment :

Keep on wondering what happens when Charlie G. announces, at 3:30, that all deals are off....

That will be delivered at 4:05.

here in OZ the mortgage originators that sprang up like mushrooms during the boom are either going broke or shutting down.

There has been a big swing back to the big banks.

Thats bad news for the real estate market.

The low doc/liar loans are dead.

The punters will need a decent deposit plus real documentation regarding salary etc.

Not to mention a proper valuation.

Most properties are way overvalued imho.

Isn't there some rule about halting a stock if news is pending?

Unbelievable.......... guess they learnt this from their American cousins since the Iraq war does not feature in the US budget.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/busi...icle3486125.ece

Chancellor Alistair Darling condemned over plan to exclude Northern Rock from Budget

The Chancellor came under fire yesterday over plans to exclude Northern Rock from the public finance figures in his first Budget next week.

Alistair Darling plans to exclude the bank's estimated £100 billion liabilities from the headline figures, both next week and in future. Instead, the figures will be treated as a special item.

Adding the bank's liabilities to the net debt figure would break the Government's own sustainable investment rule that debt should not exceed 40 per cent of gross domestic product. Including Northern Rock would push that to between 43 and 45 per cent.

sorry no link


=DJ Caught In A "Perfect Storm," Ala. County Tries To Stay Afloat


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--On Tuesday, a consortium of bankers gathered in New
York to try to prevent an ailing Alabama municipality's finances from
disappearing down its own sewer system.

Jefferson County, Ala. is in talks to refinance its sewer revenue debt,
which include interest rate swap agreements it entered with four banks: Bank
of America, Bear Stearns, JPMorgan Chase and Lehman Brothers. In the wake of
recent credit market problems, the terms of those swaps agreements mean the
county is on the hook for a $184 million collateral payment that must be made
by March 7.

Adding to the county's woes, Moody's Investors Service on Tuesday followed
Standard & Poor's and cut to junk status its underlying rating on Jefferson
County's $3.2 billion in outstanding sewer revenue bonds. Moody's said it does
not believe Jefferson County has adequate cash to meet its debt obligations.

The debt is backed by bond insurers, which have come under pressure in
recent weeks in large part due to declining values of mortgage-related
investments. Moody's said the sewer bonds will continue to carry the insured
ratings, which are higher than the underlying rating.

If the county is unable to negotiate a rescue plan this week, it could
result in the largest-ever municipal default, roughly double the size of the
infamous Orange County, California, debt default in 1994.

The Jefferson County finance director would not comment on the matter,
referring questions to the county's financial adviser, Porter, White & Co.
Calls to Porter White & Co. were not returned. Through a spokeswoman Bank of
America declined to comment, as did Lehman Brothers through a spokesman. Bear
Stearns and JP Morgan did not return calls seeking comment.

Whirlpool of Problems


The story of how an Alabama sewer system became a symbol of financial risk
illustrates just how pervasive the credit crunch has been.

"Jefferson County was a perfect-storm scenario," said Peter Block, public
finance debt analyst with Standard & Poor's. "It's one end of the extreme."

In the world of fixed income investments, municipal bonds have long
represented safety and sobriety. Investors lend their money to state and local
governments for projects like building roads and bridges. In return, they
receive an interest rate that, while relatively low, is tax-free and reflects
the rock-solid ratings of most municipalities.

According to Moody's, Jefferson County broke with the staid municipal
playbook and took the lead in employing an array of complex financial
instruments in order to minimize the debt service burden of a
capital-intensive infrastructure.

Like many other municipalities, Jefferson County went through so-called
monolines to insure its bond offerings. In addition, Jefferson County turned
to a variety of esoteric instruments, including auction-rate securities,
variable-rate demand notes and interest rate swaps.

The lowest-cost way to finance its debt, S&P's Block said, was to issue
variable-rate bonds and then enter interest-rate swaps that would pay a fixed
rate. That arrangement lowered the cost of issuance.

In the process, however, it exposed the county to a host of potential, if
unlikely, perils. The county's current crisis is a function of the degree to
which it jumped into these esoteric financial arrangements, and the unexpected
way in which many of them proceeded to unravel.

So far, Jefferson County's experience appears to be unique. In its rating
action last week, Moody's said it "is unaware of any other local government
issuers across the country that have used variable rate and hedging tools to
this extent."

Cesspool of Debt


Perhaps nowhere did the eventual confluence of toxic credit market
investments converge all at once more than in the sewers of Alabama.

First, bond insurers began to see their crucial triple-A ratings - on which
rests their ability to offer reduced interest rates to issuers - come under
seige. Two insurers that saw their own ratings get cut, FGIC and XL Capital,
insured most of Jefferson County's sewer revenue debt.

The downgrades of the two bond insurers was the beginning of a snowball
effect, according to Patrick Mispagel and Geordie Thompson, senior public
finance analysts at Moody's, that triggered potential terminations of the
county's swaps agreements.

At the same time, the market for auction-rate securities and variable-rate
demand obligations began to seize up. That led to eight failed auctions for
Jefferson County and three failed remarketings of variable-rate demand notes,
according to Mispagel. Jefferson County said the interest rates it was paying
increased significantly as a result, with auction rate securities ranging as
high as 6.25% and VRDO rates as high as 10%.

"You really have sort of everything coming together and working in concert
to create this tremendous problem," Thompson said.

Moody's last week downgraded the ratings on the sewer revenue bonds from A3
to Baa3. According to the terms of the swap agreements, the downgrade allows
the swaps counterparties to cancel the swaps within ten days of the downgrades
and force the County to fork over $184 million in cash.

The municipality late last week released a pair of material event notices,
saying that the county could provide "no assurance that net revenues... will
be sufficient to permit the county to continue to meet its debt service
obligations."

On Friday, Standard & Poor's cut its ratings on Jefferson County's sewer
revenue debt by six notches into junk territory.

Trying to Fix the Plumbing


Now, the county finds itself under an unmanageable financing burden.

"The reason Jefferson County is experiencing such stress is the sheer amount
of their swaps debt," Block said.

Moody's said the county has $3.2 billion in debt outstanding, almost all of
it variable-rate debt, including multiple layers of swaps.

"They are really uniquely exposed to some of the current market
disruptions," Mispagel said. "With the swaps, the mark-to-market value has
turned considerably against the county."

For now, the county and its bankers are not disclosing intermediate steps in
their negotiations, according to Moody's.

These guys are speedy learners.

Citigroup Shares Drop After Dubai Fund Says Mideast Sovereign Wealth Funds May Fail to Save It


DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) -- Citigroup shares dropped more than 6 percent Tuesday after the head of Dubai International Capital said that Mideast sovereign wealth funds may fail to save Citigroup unless more cash is pumped into the bank

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080304/dubai_funds_citigroup.html

Yes, but somebody has to enforce them. Where are the cops?

Jefferson County is essentially Birmingham and suburbs. I lived there back in the 80's. I have a friend there who told me the best day of his life was when he sold his commercial RE company at the end of last year. There has been a lot of credit market stress there; and there is not much of a financial base there beyond old steel money and your usual middle tier city service economy.

And a lot of indigent minorities.

I don't know how they'll avoid default. I don't think the State will bail them out.

Speak

Becoming a mendicant in a pin-striped 2000 dollar suit before an equally suited ,admiring and astonished horde of Banking Buffalo, who all share the same belief in the tablet of swindeling commandments , terrifying to behold..

If examined closely his plea was an ill-disguised attempt to replicate either one of two alternative miracles:One is the endless flame of Old Testamet inspired Chanukah; the other from the newer version--the one about the loaves and fishes..

The chuzpah is himalayan in magnitude---diabolical in intent: Commit geat crimes,loot the till, and then ask the deity for rewards for theft....and Ben&Paulwill ,if denied, shout out,Satanicllly, You made me, and now denied your heavenly obedience, Ill break you...

beardrech misdemeanors are unforgivable, great crimes are honored

Will ZERO interest rates fix this?

There might be a reason LEH is breaking down.

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Even Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may find they haven't dodged the credit crisis.

The new source of potential losses: so-called variable interest entities that allow financial firms to keep assets such as subprime-mortgage securities off their balance sheets. VIEs may contribute to another $88 billion in losses for banks roiled by the collapse of the housing market, according to bond research firm CreditSights Inc. Goldman, which hasn't had any of the industry's $163 billion in writedowns, said last month it may incur as much as $11.1 billion of losses from the instruments.

The potential for a fire-sale of the assets that would bring another round of charges has ``always been our greatest fear,'' said Gregory Peters, head of credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley, the second-biggest securities firm behind Goldman in terms of market value.

VIEs, known as special purpose vehicles before Enron Corp.'s collapse in 2001, finance themselves by selling short-term debt backed by securities, some of which are insured against default.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...9m0U&refer=news

Does Gasparino still have some unfinished business higher????

[attachmentid=96186]

So if the Sewer Authority defaults, does that mean that they'll stop.... uh.... you know....

I think there is no need to shit the pants before the sun sets down. We did hit on S&P, Dow and NDX very very very important support levels. Such levels often get broken by a few points. That happend today. Also Footsie and DAX broke very important support levels only to close above them. Looks like concerted action.

Birmingham sewer rat #1: "Hey Ben! The pipe stopped flowing!"

Birmingham sewer rat #2: "Ya Willard...I noticed. Phuck it...if this keeps up I'm takin' my fork to the alligator!!"

If you're in Jefferson County, you may need to. The sewer's are shutting down.

at this point, all dead cat bounces will probably turn out to be gifts for the bears

I do know that Jefferson County will do whatever it takes to keep the golf courses open.

These guys never stop with their "bottom is in" stories do they...

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html

“‘The worst in the sub-prime foreclosures is probably peaking at this point, but most of the mortgages — 90 percent of the homeowners — are not exposed to sub-prime loans. A vast number of neighborhoods are doing fine,’ said Lawrence Yun, of the National Association of Realtors.”

“In fact, Yun predicted that most of New England will see home prices stabilizing and possibly seeing a modest increase. ‘By 2009, I think we will be back to normal. In that case, people can anticipate a 4 percent to 6 percent price appreciation,’ Yun said.”



[attachmentid=96187]

I think I'll throw another realtor on the barby.....

Share buybacks: the ultimate waste of company profits.

GOOGbubblepumpscam update

down three hunnert 'N three pernts so far

is that a lot?

is that a lot?

Not if you are short the stock....

I suspect like the family in this post, many Ozzies are 'juggling'.

Folks renting out their home to help pay the mortgage,folks moving back in with their parents, renting out rooms to students etc.

I don't think it matters in the bigger picture.

The numbers are too big.

The big spike in listings in recent weeks will very quickly tip the balance from sellers market to buyers imho.


Selling-up grows into an option for more families

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...03-3102,00.html

We seem to have a day like this every week. Last time I swore if we went down and bounced off resistance all early afternoon, I'd cover and go long. Strike 2!

Normally, I don't pay much attention to the nikme, but looks almost identical to the Dow and SPX the past couple months, and especially since January. Their multi low setup looks just like ours. If they have a bad hair day over there tonight, and they end up taking out the lows, I think we'll follow. If they hold, then I don't know. But I don't think we'll hold if they break.

Stoolies.....I present you with another terrible tale of the effects of this market and economy; I'm sure it won't be the last one of the kind:

My wife worked on the PTA at my son's school with this woman who also belonged to my gym; I'd see her there from time to time...she is a very nice lady. She was a stay at home mom until the last few months in which she was doing substitute teaching where my wife works. This indicated to us that her and her husband were not doing so well as of late.
Apparently not, as her husband committed suicide last night. She came home and found him. He hung himself.
He was a home builder.......

I didn't know him, but I know her.....and I am sad for his kids.

There is so many questions raised these dayz that my hair hurts.

It would appear that if GS Goldman will Sack You doesn't hold a breakout area going back to Sept. 2006 no question will need answering.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1204685494.png

Wow! That's terrible I'm not one of those ammo and canned food kind of guy, but there is going to be a lot of pain when all is said and done.

It's ironic that the message of the REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex) for as long as I can remember has been (and I paraphrase) "buy a house and secure your future" when doing just that will prove to be the death-knell (not only financial, to which this anecdote attests) for many a homeowner, homebuilder, etc.

Terrible, terrible, terrible...

The Professional Edition Fed and Treasury Report, normally published each afternoon, will not be published on Wednesday, March 5 due to family business. Yours truly will be helping to get my 86 year old mother moved in to an assisted living facility here in West Palm Beach, Florida. If the move goes smoothly I will be back in time to get the nightly market update posted, but probably late. Otherwise I will post an announcement here.

Wish us luck! I hope to see you Wednesday evening.