WHoa, those last 10 minutes were oogly.

Pretty cool when the stuff works.

Close below 1310, black boxes going crazy in Luxembourg, Singapore and NYC.

C announces it's going to let 30+ billion of mortgages run down. Will save them 200mm/year.

Their layoffs are going to HAVE to be massive, absolutely massive. X-ing that large a chunk of mortgages out of their book and it will only save them 200 million a year versus the billions that are being written down.

Where was 990 today?

[attachmentid=96283]

Nursing a flesh wound?

DOW will open down 300 tomorrow morning!

[attachmentid=96284]

"The more support is tested, the weaker it becomes."

- LeeWhee - July 30, 2007

Just remember that Carl exited the market today since we didn't close above 1320..... ....let's see what he does tomorrow....

Today's post:

Just Bought E-minis
I just took a long position in the March e-minis at 1319. I am using a 20 point stop for the time being, but I will get out if the market fails to close above the 1320 level.

http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/

DIT DIT DIT
DIT DAH DIT
DIT DIT DIT !!!

With what ? His foot ?

This is a good one from a blogger

Thursday, March 6, 2008
Snake Eyes, You Lose


Imagine you run this little test, adapted from Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan (see book recommendation on the right):


On one side is Ben, a wing-tipped bearded ex-professor of economics who now works at the Fed. He became famous because of his precise econometric modeling of the Great Depression.


On the other is Moe, a wizened veteran of Wall Street who has been bloodied in many a battle with sharpies, conmen, penny stock pushers and assorted manipulators. He is not famous and doesn't want to be. But he is quite rich.

You hold up a pair of dice and assure Ben and Moe that they are not loaded. You then start throwing the dice and after twenty consecutive throws of snake-eyes you ask both of them what's the most probable outcome of the next throw. Ben, being who he is, naturally says "seven". Moe laughs and says "snake-eyes". Ben protests that he was assured the dice were not loaded. Hearing this, Moe laughs even harder and calls Ben a schmuck. Who do you want as an investment adviser?

The moral of the story is, if you expect the economy to respond strongly to deep interest rate cuts - like it did so many times before - you better check beforehand that this time the game hasn't been "loaded".


http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/

He only lost 12-15 points intraday. It is a good thing he is paper trading.

Speak
Is that S O S or a mEnu item S**t on a Stick???

By the way are you familiar with the Web site Silver Warrants run by a guy whose first name is Dudley??

He talks about the fortunes to be made on Silver WARRANTS

BEARDRECH

Is his last name Moe?

hey, doc, glad the maternal transfer went well.

a southparkian probe:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=D&b...id=p30414723352

SPX is now below its january closing low. when the NAZ and the SOW do the same, it'll be a jovian spankfest until SPX 1250-1270, where there might or might not be a respite for the bulls.

Perusing my copy of the most recent(nocturnal) market update from
The Wall Street Examiner(Holy crap, whudda bargain!), it looks to my
eyebones as though the AssNPee 5 came to rest today on a rather impor-
tant line of trend. It would go and do that on a day when the next day
is a Fryday .
I've actually been waiting for a new closing low to start anticipating a
intermediate low of import(i.e., for at least a few months); don't know
that there needs to be a lower intraday low. Likely to be some hell to
pay-in volatility, at minimum-before anticipation can turn into realization.
So far, momo indicators not as low as in 3rd week of January.
So far, that is.
Does look like, according to 'kiss' EWoof, we're in 5 down off Oct. high,
esp. now that we do have a new closing low(in SP5, not yet Sow); swag
sez now in 3 of that 5. Next low could end 'A', start countertrend 'B'-into
summer, before further hammering in 'C'?
Beware the Ides of March-violent low/reversal?Or pukin' green on St. Paddy's?
Marty Armstrong's cycle targets a low on March 22, in tune with Spring
Equinox.

Or not.

aNOTHER chapter in Head-vs-Gut adventure land..

Scientists are trying to put "gut responses" on a more empirically verifiable base.

Recently they scrupulously examined a racing event involving a formula one driver ,who about to enter a blind hair pinned turn, decided to turn way, instead of continuing in the normal way he would if continuing to desire winning..

By acting in this intitive way he avoided crashing into a pileup just around the bend

Mystified, by the driver's ablity to avoid the disaster without seeing around the bend,they reviewed the film.. And the driver,also watching the film, noticed that the crowd, instead of watching him trying to make the turn,wore rather fixated frozen expressions while facing the other way...

It turns out the driver was, subconsciously, aware of the abnormal position of the spectator's head and inferred that something was radically wrong... and thus was spared..

Although the article is more "brain and mind oriented" I feel that one day they will see the gut linkage....

But the meaning of thearticle is that the "life saving" powere arent miracles so much as an ability to see "anomalies " in the circumstances that warn the "deeply experienced driver of things seconds away..

I would imagine this applied to chart reading means that one has to pull the trigger a few candles in front (the $$$ making tell)of the real payoff....
Or whatever info is coing on the charts....this as oppoosed to a more "after " oriented entrance....

beardrech

"REMAIN CALM...ALL IS WELL"

The slope of the destruction of the Zimbabwe dollar now approaches infinity. Several days ago 20 to 25 million Zimbabwe dollars bought 1 US dollar. Today it takes 35 to 40 million. Americans should be proud that there is at least one currency in the world against which the US dollar is making strong gains.

We closed below the January lows.....and it's raining frogs in Britain...coincidence?

http://www.ufodigest.com/rainingfrogs.html

[attachmentid=96288]

*DJ Paulson: Need To Prosecute 'Wrongdoers' Behind Housing Crisis

Certainly he is not talking about Wall Street and the Federal Reserve aka Alan Greenspan......

We need CATASTROPHIC non-farm payrolls tomorrow. If they come in as expected market should do well. But if there are horror numbers it will mark the final reckognition of the broader public that we are in a bear market. Till now there is hope that it is only a minor recession, a "baby recession" or so.

I expect horror numbers and therefore will try to have a good short entry into Dow from 8 am CET on (thats 1 hour before DAX opens), i expect Dow going up a bit overnight, then down from the beginning of european trade. Then it will go down slowly and after NFP data release gets a 200 pointer on its head. Kaboom!

Fox-

The payroll numbers are absolutely irrelevant. I mean, DOOOD! We got pigmen bleeding out in the street, getting margin calls, mass portfolio liquidation, panic capital flight of whatever is left into Treasuries. That's what's driving this, certainly not news.

yeah ok, but NFP is - after rate decisions - the second biggest market moving event. So theyll be the trigger for a horror sell off. Jobless claims wont do that.

I also wouldnt rule it completely out that they shut down Wall Street tomorrow. At least you all should be prepared that you loose internet connection to your borker, or that the phone lines are so busy that you cant come out of positions. That also counts for the Gold Bugs. How knows how those stocks will react.

Margin calls are killing the cowboys in OZ.

THESE GUYS WERE PART OF A SYNDICATE THAT TRIED TO BUY QANTAS LAST YEAR FOR $11 BILLION.

Now they are effectively dead in the water.

Allco admits Rubicon margin call error; shares plunge

Allco Finance Group has corrected information it provided to the stock exchange yesterday, saying it has been forced by margin calls to sell all of its holdings in three Rubicon property trusts.

http://business.theage.com.au/allco-admits...80307-1xqi.html

currently Google server is down? Anyone else have this problem?

Or is that their kind of action to prevent their stock from going down even more? Like "ok, if you continue shorting us like mad, we just gonna shut down the whole thing"

Are you currently being held hostage by the canned foods team? Just type a sign for us and we'll send some commandos.

No, that spells SRS. SOS is dit dit dit, dah dah dah, dit dit dit. I know nada re silver warrants. I like silver for the long run, I'm just shorting a familiar thinking a slapdown is coming, or that the miners will get caught up in any liquidation being forced out there. Carlisle group getting a margin call, for crissakes. I thought they WERE the pigman's pigmen.

this dude isn't working today, so he had time to dawdle. to put my finger to the financial zeitgeist winds, i tuned in to kerramer's stock revival tent, and boyoboy it made me feel trapped within minutes.

the constantly swooping camera, the vein-engorged shouting, the testosterone metal soundtrack--everything that was supposed to convey a sense of excitement and make me want to press the 'buy' button instead produced a deep pathos. it was television, all right, but tuned to a fell channel with spectral vibes being sent by a lord of the dead.

I am short NEM here. If the mkt tanks it will take the gold stocks with it plus gold looks like its gona run out of steam here shortly.

Yes, Grand PC, I've been thinking along those lines as well.

Interesting. It goes quite nicely I think, to what you said the other day, about brilliance being 10% inspiration and 90% observation.

a great trader once told me never short anything making new highs and never assume a trend will reverse just because...... the dollar is making new lows everyday. be careful.

*DJ Poole: Valid Financial Innovation Often Brings Instability

put this quote on your wall....

once you let the inflation genie out of the bottle,by gee it is hard to get back in.

I feel sorry for this new govt in OZ, they have inherited one hell of a mess.

Price rises hit back pocket on four fronts


KEVIN Rudd's working families were dealt a quadruple whammy yesterday after banks threatened to dramatically push up rates, health insurance costs jumped, oil prices surged and electricity bills looked set to climb.

Two banks have now defied Treasurer Wayne Swan, who personally rang senior banking and finance executives this week asking them to restrict rate rises to 25 basis points because of the impact on families.

The Reserve Bank lifted rates 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent on Wednesday to put a brake on inflation.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...281-952,00.html

Banzai! shout Japanese bears.

It's Friday tomorrow and you know what that means? Sure you do.

It's Amback bailout rumor day. I would like to nip in the bud the rumor that I am going to write a check for $3 billion to take a "significant equity stake" in the troubled company.

Still high in the clouds

Price of gas here in CA has gone back up to $3.50 a gallon.

I can easily see $4/gallon regular gas by this summer.

New Loan Limits for Freddie and Fannie

They are going to start buying way overpriced CA mortgages.... right before the prices fall into the abyss. Idiots!

recent talk in OZ is for petrol to hit $3 a litre.


Probably a good contrarian indicator.

The last time I watched his show was a few months ago, and in under 360 seconds he induced a state of carsickness. That swooping camera, the spittle in the air, his breathless barking and shouting, and the fascination and sympathy for all the poor trapped hopeless buggers hanging on his every word, trying desperately to derive the logos from his senseless bloviations... made me feel nauseous and headachy all at once.

it is amazing.

The banks are off about 35% in OZ in recent months and 'now' they decide to downgrade them.

Mr Heffernan said Citigroup had downgraded NAB's earnings outlook this morning and put a "Sell" recommendation on the stock.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0...5003402,00.html

Quick&random kult stock watch

Sbux topped out in 06 !



That's what I call a leading indicator!

Crapple in the hole, kudos to shorty for timing this one perfectly.


Fugly hand bags topped out in May 07
A certain windsurfer guy loved this one along with empty warehouses.


Fufu berry got fufu ucked


Talking about fufu, old tech whores getting beaten down by the pimping Pigmen.


What about crooks? No, it's not a finagler ETF, it's the overpriced sandals with holes thingies

Is Carl got stopped out?

the cowboys are selling their souls to try and keep some 'skin' in the game.

Bad notes trigger ABC's renewed dive

Eddy Groves was looking good. He had nipped over to the US on a mission to sell some assets and recapitalise his child-care empire.

In no time at all, he had struck a deal with Morgan Stanley Private Equity. It might have been a fire sale but the $502 million price tag for the bulk of his US centres didn't look too shabby.

Eddy was back. Smaller. But back.

With the $811 million proceeds from a convertible notes issue, ABC could now make a large dent in the $1.2 billion senior bank facilities - the covenants of which ABC had come so perilously close to breaching.

The stock price rallied. Then mysteriously, at 3pm yesterday, ABC shares took a 25% pounding. The slide has continued today, with the stock down a further 20% at one point.

What happened?

One theory is the hedge funds are back having their evil way with Eddy's stock price again. It could be true. Perhaps they have seen the terms of the recent convertible note issue.

It is a bit speculative at this point but, according to a Goldman Sachs JBWere note to clients, these convertible notes may be known as "exploding convertible notes", that is, "if the ordinary shares drop in value, the number on issue explodes".


http://business.theage.com.au/bad-notes-tr...80307-1xrm.html

Why?
Is Poole's rearside corked?

tonight I went to the visitation at the funeral home for my wifes friends husband and on the way home, a white cat decided to run under the tire of my car.

....it's the first time THAT'S ever happened.

Is that good luck because it was white?

Extended free preview of my podcast with Russ Winter.