http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

A reasonable fall today but spread unevenly across the sectors. All Ords -2.4% with the big losers being Property Trusts (renamed A-REIT), -4% and Financials -3.9%. Healthcare is down the least, -0.3%.

The big miners are seeing some selling: BHP -1.7% and RIO -2.8%. Golds are holding up reasonably well: Newcrest -1%, Newmont -0.5% and Lihir -2.2%. Juniors flat to down.

Minor losses, if any, on the oils: Woodside -0.3%, Santos +1.3% and Caltex -1.5%.

Extended free preview of my podcast with Russ Winter.

From here:

http://theroxylandr.wordpress.com/2008/03/.../#comment-28798

fredw Says:
March 7, 2008 at 1:07 am

Rumor posted at Across the Curve blog ( bond market site ) pertaining to an Emergency Fed Meeting Thursday. Fed allegedly will announce a significant increase in the TAF Friday and also a reduction in the haircut for collateral submitted to the facility. Anyone heard this in the rounds on Thursday ?

-----

Seamus?

David Rosenberg from Merrill said that break-even for non-far payrolls is 350k weekly claims. That means we should see a negative number or zero at bes tomorrow.

Not that that's important. Employment is a lagging indicator and I'm paying no attention to it myself. ISM numbers and regional Fed surveys are much more informative to my taste.

The most important economic indicator would be MEW (mortgage equity withdrawal), but it comes with 2 months lag.

Just stick with charts, even though they are also a lagging indicator :-)

All Ords continued to slide and then went into sideways mode with much of Asia doing a similar move. The index closed -2.9% led by A-REIT sector, -6% followed Financials -4% and Consumer Discretionary -3.7%. Healthcare had the least loss, -0.7%.

The big miners saw steep losses: BHP -2.3% and RIO -3.5%. Golds remained fairly static: Newcrest -0.4%, Newmont -0.4% and Lihir -2.2%. Juniors flat to down.

Oils weren't too badly off: Woodside -0.6%, Santos -0.2% and Clatex -2.3%.

Heavy losses in Asia: India -3.6%, Nikkers -3.3%, Honkers -3.2%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

BOJ Keeps Key Rate at 0.5% at Fukui's Last Meeting

March 7 (Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Japan kept interest rates on hold at Governor Toshihiko Fukui's final board meeting on concern that economic growth is slowing.

Fukui and his colleagues voted unanimously to leave the overnight lending rate at 0.5 percent, the central bank said in a statement today in Tokyo. The government nominated Deputy Governor Toshiro Muto, 64, to succeed Fukui, according to Takeo Nishioka, an opposition Democratic Party of Japan lawmaker. Fukui's term expires March 19.

just went short Dow 12048. Have hoped for a higher entry this morning, but anyway. Going for hundreds of points of profit. TODAY.

also went short Gold at 981, but will put stop quickly to break even, cause not so sure about Gold, simply traded signal.

not that someone forgets whats at stake here:

S&P500 weekly

EMA 200 weekly at 1310, important fibo at 1267, there they will try to engineer a double bottom

[attachmentid=96292]

here we go, DAX did fall below 6500, Dow below yest low, fighting with 12000 right now.

Dow below 12000 now.

USD/CHF just did fall below 1.02, my goodness soon Swiss Franc will be worth more than the USDollar

EUR/USD just goes above 1.5400 again, EUR/JPY lost more than 100 pips since 8 am CET.

Yeah, and Futia will get his day in the sun.

The stench coming from the bond market is tremendously gut wrenching, I can't phantom why stocks are holding up at these highly bloated levels.

"Company Bond Risk Soars to Record on Hedge Fund Sale Concerns "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...zawY&refer=home

Doc-

You need to tell we, the Unwashed, exactly who Wuss Rinter is. Eh?

at 8:31 a.m. the world will break in 2 pieces

Some follow the USD/JPY correlation along with the US stocks. I see it's still moving down - possibly to par. I see 101.95

Some see a measured move in crude to $110 and want to short there. That projects to $87 for USO.

"A Great Short Sale Is Setting Up in Oil..." http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/200...2008_mar_06.asp

LOL! Good thing I have gold!!! Wait a sec...

Consumer Confidence on some tout index came in at 31.5 vs. 45 expected.

Carlyle halted overseas. New margin calls "in substantial excess of those from Wednesday".

Off to a shining start here. Now, if we can just get Insana and Bill Griffith on Crapvision together, today, it will be just like the '87 bonanza (except for the extra 15 pounds on me).

Russ is simply the best blogger out there. His blog can be found at http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter

Good Morning!

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Top Iraq contractor skirts US taxes offshore

from the Boston Globe

oh man!

Crapvision touting emergency rate cut rumor.

(ahh, i see it got the futes green...)

Wheeeee. Fed increasing the TAFfy size to 100Billion. "In close consultation with Foreign ECB's".

Broadening the types of crap collateral they will accept. Hoover it all up Bennie.

We are saved!

So the rumor was true

Comments?

Start following Across the Curve Blog too

How about opinion?

In my opinion, the Fed has their hands full trying to keep the capital destruction from spreading. This move is about the Fed responding to the failed margin calls more than some bad jobs number. They probably stay a tight wad.

Maybe they also have a deal to manage the Euro down. I think the dollar is the reason they're tight. I believe they worked out with the foreign holders--inflate and they dump, so they're staying tight. I don't think they need to facilitate the creation of more money. The Treasury will do that with all their new debt, and a ton more will come back from recycling all the dollars we exported for decades. The key for them is to manage the dollar dump.

All of this is just pure guess work on my part.

Non-Farm decline of 63,000 vs. Expectations of even.

Worst since 2003.

December '07 originally +83,000 revised to +41,000. January revised to -21,000.

Fed announcement triggers market panic--
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...y/20080307a.htm

Dow drops 100 points on the announcement.

Financial Authorities Panicking.

Payrolls down 63,000

These employment numbers are just atrocious...economy has a serious case of the runs.

Would have preferred this start green today. The Working Group will be in full force today.

Wherever you got that from, it's not correct.

It's funny, but since the Fed introduced the TAF people have been repeating this over and over and over. It's one of those lies that people accept as truth because people keep repeating it. It just keeps going around and around the web.

Well, it's just not true.

So let me repeat.

It's not true. The Fed nowhere, no how, no way, anywhere, ever has stated that it will accept a broader range of collateral than what it would always accept at the Discount Window. THey HAVE made the statement that they would accept the same collateral that would be accepted at the Discount Window. And that is basically, everything that meets sound collateral tests. And, in fact, loans made via the TAF are required to be 50% overcollateralized. The Fed is therefore NOT accepting "crap collateral".

They are also accepting the exact same type of collateral at the expanded term repo operations. Treasuries, Agencies, and MBS. Same as always. No difference.

The Fed owns only Treasuries in its own portfolio. Unlike other central banks, they have never bought Agencies or MBS. The own only Treasuries.

Dow at 11920 right now

"Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion."

Maybe they pump, but I'm taking this with a grain of salt. Is this how they help roll over those treasuries? Or maybe they take it away from somewhere else, like they did with the taffy. Hmm.. Have to look at those total Fed holdings--aren't they down something like $20B?

wonder if we get a V bottom here?

This sounds like they intend it as a net add. We'll have to see if they redeem Treasuries and cut back on shorter term repos as they did to offset the first $60 billion in TAF.

Touche!! And thank you:

Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion. These transactions will be conducted as 28-day term repurchase (RP) agreements in which primary dealers may elect to deliver as collateral any of the types of securities--Treasury, agency debt, or agency mortgage-backed securities--that are eligible as collateral in conventional open market operations. As with the TAF auction sizes, the Federal Reserve will increase the sizes of these term repo operations if conditions warrant.


http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p...y/20080307a.htm

8:30 gold smackdown . .. .... CHECK.




I have this huge urge to get out on this mornings market gapdown.

But this whole system is so screwed right now that there has to be a huge capitulation coming and I'd hate to miss it after all this.


Trade safe Stoolies.

just took half of the Dow short from this morning off the table, let the other half run

Yup. Physical only ... no ETF's or equities. Maybe CEF, but not a whole lot. Something convertible to bullion.

Haven't quite figured out how to hold physical uranium. The neighbors will complain.

And my wheat pile is starting to ferment.

What's News from WSJ--first 7 stories on WSJ online

Weak Jobs Data Add to Fears
Problems Mount for Carlyle
Housing, Bank Troubles Deepen
Futures Stall: Paryrolls in Focus
Collateral Call Goes Unanswered
Regulators Push the Banks

I am surprised we won't be opening 100 points higher.

Here's the text of the Fed press release:

The Federal Reserve on Friday announced two initiatives to address heightened liquidity pressures in term funding markets.

First, the amounts outstanding in the Term Auction Facility (TAF) will be increased to $100 billion. The auctions on March 10 and March 24 each will be increased to $50 billion--an increase of $20 billion from the amounts that were announced for these auctions on February 29. The Federal Reserve will increase these auction sizes further if conditions warrant. To provide increased certainty to market participants, the Federal Reserve will continue to conduct TAF auctions for at least the next six months unless evolving market conditions clearly indicate that such auctions are no longer necessary.

Second, beginning today, the Federal Reserve will initiate a series of term repurchase transactions that are expected to cumulate to $100 billion. These transactions will be conducted as 28-day term repurchase (RP) agreements in which primary dealers may elect to deliver as collateral any of the types of securities--Treasury, agency debt, or agency mortgage-backed securities--that are eligible as collateral in conventional open market operations. As with the TAF auction sizes, the Federal Reserve will increase the sizes of these term repo operations if conditions warrant.
The Federal Reserve is in close consultation with foreign central bank counterparts concerning liquidity conditions in markets.

My thinking exactly. I've been leaving too much profit on the plate waiting for the big one and sitting through a turnaround. Not sure what to do, but I'm thinking it might be more profitable over the long haul to nick the nickels here and there than to wait for the big one and ignore those shorter trading ranges. It means a big change of attitude for me, and I'll probably learn it just at the wrong time. That fear of missing a big move is part of the attitude change. If it moves slowly, there's plenty of time to get back in. A missed opportunity means very little, especially if you're making something elsewhere. Anyway, this change is what I want to accomplish this year.

Here's something else that just dawned on me. Until about 2 years ago, the Fed always did weekly 28 day repos. So even this isn't new. They cut back the 28 day term to 14 days at some point within the last few years, although I don't recall exactly when.

So it will be interesting to see if this additional $100 billion is really new money, or just more mumbo jumbo sleight of hand.

Bottle it, turn off the lights, and use the 100 bottles of glowing irradiated beer on the wall as an alternate light source to count your gold by. Don't forget to apply for the energy saving tax rebate.

And on them also