http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Still barrelling downward but I have to think we get a bear market bounce soon. All Ords -1.8% mainly due to the Mining sector which is -3.7%. Energy is no.2, -1.9% followed by IT -1.8%. There are a couple of greens, Telecomms +1.3% and Utilities +0.7%.

The big miners getting slugged once again: BHP -3.1% and RIO -4.1%. Golds also down with the exception of Newmont, +1.5%. Newcrest -2.8% and Lihir -1.7%. Juniors flat to down.

Oils mixed: Woodside -3.3%, Santos +2.4% and Caltex -3.1%.

Still doing the waterfall according to the 5-day chart. All Ords finished -1.2% which was off the lows. A couple more sectors moved into the green; Financials did quite a big jump to close +2.9% followed by Telecomms, +1.8%. Miners were the hardest hit sector, -5.2% with Healthcare next, -2.8%.

Miners took a pounding: BHP -4.6%, RIO -5.7% and in the golds, Newcrest -6.4% and Lihir -1%. Newmont went the other way, +1.3%. Juniors mostly down.

Oils also took a hit: Woodside -2.7%, Santos -1.4% and Caltex -4.2%.

Asia mostly recovered towards the end of day: India +1.2%, Nikkers +1%, Honkers +0.8% and China +0.3%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Australian Business Confidence Near a Six-Year Low

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australian business confidence held close to the lowest in more than six years after the central bank raised interest rates and stock markets tumbled.

The sentiment index rose two points to minus 2 in February from January, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of about 500 companies released in Melbourne today. A reading below zero shows those expecting business to deteriorate outnumber those predicting an improvement.

------------------

Australia Home-Loan Approvals Rise 2.3% on Investment

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's home-loan approvals rose more than economists forecast in January as investors switched to property after the nation's stock market slumped the most in 20 years.

The number of loans granted to people to build or buy homes or apartments climbed 2.3 percent from December, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney today. Lending to investors increased 8.3 percent, the biggest gain in seven months.

Demand for home loans has also been driven by borrowers switching to fixed loans ahead of the central bank's increases in borrowing costs in February and March. Australia's median house price surged 12 percent in the last year, a separate report showed today. By contrast, the nation's benchmark index of shares has plunged by one-quarter since the start of November.

----------------

Australian February Job Advertisements Decline 2% From Record

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's job-vacancy advertisements declined in February from a record, signaling higher interest rates and tumbling stock markets may cool hiring.

Jobs advertised in newspapers and on the Internet fell 2 percent from the previous month to an average 268,869 a week, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. said in Melbourne today. That followed a revised 0.8 percent gain in January.

China's Inflation Surges 8.7% as Food Prices Soar

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation accelerated more than estimated to the fastest in 11 years as food prices jumped, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates.

Consumer prices climbed 8.7 percent in February from a year earlier after gaining 7.1 percent in January, the statistics bureau said today. That was faster than the 7.9 percent median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Food costs soared 23 percent after the worst blizzards in half a century destroyed crops and snarled transport links, causing shortages. China, the biggest contributor to global growth, needs to weigh the threat from surging prices against the risk that rate increases and weakening export demand will trigger a sharp economic slowdown.

long Dow 11815

short EUR/USD 1.5455, just playing double top here, no big position.

You know the bottom isn't in when Europe is the first to come out of it.

stopped out 1.5475, well, that was quick.

oil above 109

Wow, oil's run is flabbergasting, are we witnessing a blow off top?

Fxfox, do you have any insight on the resilience of german expectations?

"Investor confidence in Germany unexpectedly rose for a second month in March, adding to evidence Europe's largest economy is coping with the euro's appreciation and a U.S. slowdown."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...8bec&refer=home

The world's deflation exporter is having inflation problems.

"China's inflation accelerated to the fastest pace in 11 years as the worst snowstorms in half a century disrupted food supplies, adding pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o.D4&refer=home

"`If food inflation stays high for too long this will trigger non-food inflation,'' said Tao Dong, chief Asia economist at Credit Suisse Group in Hong Kong. ``If your food bill keeps going up, you ask for a raise -- then your boss raises his product prices.''"

ECB staying course:
"European Central Bank council member Axel Weber said he doesn't see any leeway to lower borrowing costs after oil prices jumped to a record."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...o.D4&refer=home

And the Fed is expected to keep on slashing rates
"Futures traders have begun pricing in the chances of a 100 basis point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate on March 18."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a2NxzAHKG8m0

not really, but maybe it is because the survey was between feb25 and march10, that was partly during a time when DAX almost did break the very important 7060 to the upside. Also dont forget that the ZEW is only taken among "Investors" and "Institutionals", means, the dont ask CFO's or something from industrial firms or so.

The Europe is doing a big experiment by not cutting rates. Very interesting to see how Feds cuts and ECB no-cuts will result. It's a pretty good scientific experiment. Two white rats, one got the shot another didn't

I think this tinkering with the "ECB will follow the FED" rule is haphazard to say the least.

"The euro rose to a record high of $1.5495 and traded at $1.5470 by 7:27 a.m. in New York, from $1.5343 yesterday. The yen dropped to 158.12 per euro from 156.12."

"``In the current risk-sensitive environment currencies are getting a steer from what's going on in stocks,'' said Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist at Bear Stearns Cos. in London. ``The mood in the equity market isn't as sour as it was yesterday and that's driving the yen lower.''"

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...IH1A&refer=home

A higher euro will help to import deflation from China, but it's destroying European manufacturing base of low tech products. There'll be none left to consume if we continue on this path. Even high tech companies like nokia are leaving expensive western europe for cheap eastern europe alternatives.

Either a blowoff top in the price of oil, or a blowoff top in our fossil fuel-based suburban cookie cutter stripmall prozacked civilization...

Good news from the inflation front, lets add more gasoline to the fire:

"- The Federal Reserve will hold auctions to lend as much as $200 billion in Treasury securities and increase swap lines with two foreign central banks to try to ease renewed turmoil in credit markets.

The Fed said in a statement it is establishing a new Term Securities Lending Facility to, through weekly auctions, lend as much as $200 billion of Treasuries to primary dealers for 28 days, instead of overnight as it currently does. The loans may be secured by collateral including agency and private mortgage- backed securities, the Fed said.

The Federal Open Market Committee also authorized increasing currency swap lines with the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank to $30 billion and $6 billion, respectively, increasing the ECB's line by $10 billion and the Swiss line by $2 billion. "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...XY6M&refer=home

wiff wiff
STAGflation

Let's talk about the expansion of the securities lending program that the market is suddenly so excited about. It seems to me that the market does not understand the implications of this at all.

Let's take this one step at a time.

What is the purpose of borrowing securities from your broker? It's the same for Primary Dealers borrowing Treasuries from the Fed.

Why do PDs borrow securities from the Fed? To sell them short.

The Primary Dealers are heavily short Treasuries at all times. They are heavily long all other debt securities simultaneously.

The level of securities lending in recent months is unprecedented in all of human history, by an order of magnitude of 10.

Why is that?

Because they were heavily short Treasuries and are being subject to the greatest Treasury short squeeze in history. Their only out was to borrow more securities from the Fed and short more into the market as the public clamor and panic for "safe" Treasury securities rose to a mad crescendo.

The Fed itself is now feeling the pressure of the imminent collapse of the Primary Dealers and major banks worldwide, because not only are the PDs heavily short the stuff that is going up, Treasuries, they are heavily long the stuff that is going down, which is all other debt securities.

This is the worst of all possible worlds and the Fed's action is like putting a bandaid on a ruptured jugular vein.

Accordingly, I predict that this morning's massive short squeeze will be reversed in a matter of hours.

like someone on another web site said ....

all the CDO's and MBS's get taken in as collateral by the Fed..

the collateral fails ...

the Fed forgives ...

(be sure to dry your hands on the way out).

end game

Bummer, I was hoping to add shorts at the 900, roughly around 1310/1320 area.

They're gonna accept structured paper?

Hello Zimbabwe!

But who is squeezing trashuries if not those dealers? Who is muscling them?

who would have thought that they try to engineer a double bottom

still ong Dow from 11815 this morning, nice. EUR/USD short would be 100 pips in profit now, but got stopped out first. suchs life.

"Under this new Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), the Federal Reserve will lend up to $200 billion of Treasury securities to primary dealers secured for a term of 28 days (rather than overnight, as in the existing program) by a pledge of other securities, including federal agency debt, federal agency residential-mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and non-agency AAA/Aaa-rated private-label residential MBS."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Drn4&refer=home

I wouldn't bother reading other websites on this issue. People simply have no clue what they are talking about. It's all nonsense.

By the way, I am not getting quotes on the 10 year yield. Have they shut the Treasury markets? If this ends the short squeeze in Treasuries, T bond prices will collapse to the same degree that stock prices have risen this morning, perhpaps moreseo.

TNX +12.2 bps to 3.56%

The entire world. There are no sellers only buyers, and they are buying at the most ferocious pace in history. I have been talking about this in the daily Fed reports, that the only thing that is keeping the Treasury afloat is this buying panic that has enabled the Treasury's Ponzi scheme to continue.

This has been the greatest panic in the history of mankind. The dealers have been buried by it. They are destroyed.

I really wish I had a general circulation publication so that more people would understand what is going on, but I have to reserve the bulk of my analysis for those of you who support my analytical work through your subscriptions to the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition. That means I keep my comments here somewhat constrained to my reactions to specific news such as this.

This event begs a clear accounting because as usual the media misreports and misrepresents the facts, and the vast majority of the investing public misinterprets the circumstances and the likely outcomes.

"I admit I have read other websites. It was a one-night stand".

"I did not pay $4600 for a night with a $4600 woman".

"I paid $4600 for a night with 10 $460 women".

I expect the market to collapse from here.

But weren't we discussing how Bernanke had to generate a bid in treasuries a few weeks ago by yapping about the possibility of bank failures, for which Senators thanked him on the spot?

I feel really sorry for Spitzer's wife.

I always had a feeling that guy was a two faced turd, the way he was cutting easy deals with Wall Street. He really was letting those guys down easy when he had them nailed to the wall. I had a feeling that the guy was just a showboating politician without a genuine ethical core. I have worked enough with people who loudly proclaimed their ethics while really having no clue what ethics were. They really had no moral core. Their sole guide was expediency.

Here's this morning action in tnx.

[attachmentid=96437]

Stick saves all 'round this morning including Bucky. The full back test is complete and bucky needs to hold the 72.5.

3.573

DJ MARKET TALK: Lehman Economist Applauds Fed Action

9:20 (Dow Jones) Lehman economist Drew Matus calls Fed's expansion of
securities lending program "the smartest thing I've seen the Fed do in a long
time." For liquidity injections to work effectively, he said, they need to be
targeted "to the right part of the marketplace," in this case agency debt and
non-agency private label mortgage-backed securities. "That is a very powerful
tool," Matus said. (BB)

my thoughts exactly, could not have said it better

TMA up 100%. Wheeeee!

When does this $200b reach the PD's? Today? TIA

Repeat from Friday: I hate the Fed.

Well, I said on the weekend that I had some equities in my 401k for bernacke puts. That was quick. Now what.

We were discussing Bernanke's action, but not in the framework in which you describe it. I said that he did it to lower the Treasury's borrowing cost with the auctions of $78 billion in new paper that week. There's not been a problem with public bidding on the paper. In fact the opposite.

I have been chronicling this every day that there's a Treasury auction in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Daily Fed and Treasury Report, including comparing the levels of indirect bidder participation versus both the expiring paper and last week's auctions. I have also discussed it at length in our Radio Free Wall Street podcasts. There's no question that what has been occurring is unprecedented. The greatest buying panic in history.

For those who have an interest in following these developments as they occur, and in understanding their implications, there's no better place than the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report. Click the link below and start reading RIGHT NOW!

Not till the end of the month:

As is the case with the current securities lending program, securities will be made available through an auction process. Auctions will be held on a weekly basis, beginning on March 27, 2008. The Federal Reserve will consult with primary dealers on technical design features of the TSLF.