short term indicators turn down today

shit hits the fan starting next week

for those who are long.........

from CArl Futia

E-mini Update
I'm still long from 1284 this morning but I want to see the market close at 1281 or higher. Otherwise I'll get out and try again next week.
 
posted by Carl Futia at 12:44 PM permalink 0 comments 

Long the e-minis
I just bought June e-minis at 1284 at the level of yesterday's low. I will junk this position if the market shows any preference for trading below the 1270 level.

Nervous for the price of oil - just managed to get pretty good premium shorting USO puts that expire on Thursday of next week.  Why someone would pay for puts that are 10% OTM with 4 days to expiration is beyond me- unless there's a slaughter planned for the oil market next week 

why not? 110 is definitely not a market price, it only wnet up so much because every hedgie in the world is long oil, let some of them blow up over the weekend and early next week and oil will get punch IN DA FACE!

USD/JPY closed below 100

USD/CHF closed below 1.00, that means for the first time in history Swiss Franc is worth more than the US Dollar.

they are all effed! 

monday morning will tell it. DAX right now directly at 6400, either it marks here a tripple bottom on the daily, which would be very strong sup afterwards, or it breaks down. I guess it breaks down, cause 6400 is technically a non-levle, there is nothing, no fibo, no important EMA, nothing.

Does someone really beleive that the FED goes full steam here to defend the 38 fibo, i mean the one from 2002 low in S&P which is at 1267? Never ever. They need their firepower to defend the 62 fibo or even when S&P tries to go below 1000.

I can imagine seeing just 2 weeks from now 1175 in S&P which is the 1175. I really can imagine that, what speaks against it?

Hey guys and gals....Been in hiding for a few months.Quit my job at wynn las vegas and have been working twice as many hours now but making nice bucks.

Many of you will think I'm insane but......I bought a forclosure here in north vegas and I close in about 12 more days.I need a home to live in and rental prices have been going throgh the roof.
  The home was originally sold for 377k in 2005,Then sold for 454k in 2006.I just bought it from the bank for 250k.The home is 2819sf and has upgraded everything awesome views and even a 3 car garage....So I am buying for about $89 SF.

If i'm way wrong,the home can easily rent for 2k or so a month.

Homes that are priced right here are flying (mostly forclosures)....Looked at about 45-50 homes,all recieved anywhere from 5 to as many as 44 bids.Pending sales on forclosures have tripled in the last 45 days.There are 16 forclosed homes in my development,10 are under contact in the last 30 days.Anything not priced correctly will never sell and will eventually drop hard to more reasonable prices here.

I may be early but 130,000 new jobs here in the next 2 years.I am hoping the price I paid per square foot will be a decent place to buy.Demand should at least stabilize here in las vegas around the $80-$100 Sf level.

I have stayed away from the stock market and have stayed in my CD's I locked in last summer.Hope everyone is making money,it's too stressful to trade these days!

Here is a pic of the home and a pic of my backyard view of mount charleston.....

Bush says they will take "appropriate steps" to stablize the markets....ARE THEY GOING TO CLOSE THE MARKETS? 

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...gh7M&refer=home

No worries...he's on top of it!



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Anyhoo, I hope I don't have to get exercised on those short putz 

Hanky,

Congrats on your purchase! Hope everything works out for you. $89 a square foot is a dream price out here in CA.

A flash from the past :

1. "Price stability, rather than decline, would be expected for most of the housing stock . . . since underlying home ownership demand remains strong due to continued high immigration." (Frank Clayton, January 18th 1981 in the Sun. link The market crashed by about 50% over the following year. )

2. Renaud said he thinks that the trend to prices for houses has been broken by a temporary lull and that by [next year] or so prices will be equal to or greater than peak prices. (Claude Renaud, VP of Mortgage Insurance Canada on April 14, 1982. link The market took 26 quarters (over 6 years) to regain its peak in real terms.)

3. "To those who are waiting for Vancouver house prices to collapse, I can only advise them not to hold their breath . . . Unless there is a major recession or significant depopulation, house prices are unlikely to drop significantly." (Jerry Jackman, VP Royal Lepage, November 18, 1988 in the Vancouver Sun. link In 1989, prices started to drop - with an eventual 30% or so drop. Real prices did not attain these heights again for 58 quarters, or around 15 years.)

4. "We are definitely in a transition market in areas such as the West Side, Vancouver East, and Burnaby . . . it is too early to tell if the market will stall." (Jerry Jackman, April 20th 1989 in the Province. link Prices did not recover in real terms until 15 years later.)

5. "It is unlikely that prices will decline significantly." (JJ again, July 18th 1989 in the Sun. link)

6. "The whole world wants Vancouver because everybody is moving here now and everything points up, up, up." (Realtor David Goodman, December, 1989 in the Sun. link The market did not reach these heights again for 15 years.)

7. " . . .no one is panicking over the west side housing market and he insists that it has simply 'normalized'." (Jerry Jackman, January 27th 1990 quoted in the Sun. link West-side prices fell by 40% in the next 2 years.)

8. "I can't see prices reversing themselves there [in the west side] because it is still a very desirable place to live." (Same as above.)

9. "The market is entering a more 'normal' phase." (REBGV president Brian Calder, Feb 2, 1990 in the Sun. link If normal means that it takes 15 years to recover, then 'normal' it was.)

10. "A BC Central Credit Union newsletter released Tuesday said BC's housing market is currently experiencing a contractionary phase but the worst of that phase should be over by late summer or early fall." (BC Credit Union economist Richard Allen quoted in the Sun, July 5th 1995. link The decline in the late 90s was slow, but it took 28 quarters to bottom out and 33 quarters to recover to the previous peak. Some 'phase', eh?)

the house looks huge.

how do yo know those 130,000 new jobs Las Vegas in the next 2 years will pan out?
Since I got to this board I do not believe in any prediction/study/research done by anybody - nobody knows anything, it seems like they write what they want.

Our "friends" on the other side of the pond are just lapping this story up.

I wonder how images like this resonate in Beijing and Riyadh?  I mean how stupid do you have to be to keep lending billions to a country that allows this to happen to its citizens seven months before a national election?  By this summer, it should painfully obvious that foreign creditors are going to be on the top of nearly every politician's hit list.  And why not?  These are the folks who provided the wherewithal to keep Wall Street's rip-off artists in business long after they would otherwise have imploded.  How much longer before the mandarins in Asia and the oily ones in the GCC decide to cut their losses?

These are some of the major projests in the works....Too many to list.
Palazzo, 3,025 rooms; cost $1.8 billion, now open.
Encore at Wynn Las Vegas, 2,045 rooms: cost $1.7 billion.
CityCenter, 7,700 rooms: cost $7 billion.
Echelon Place, 3,300 rooms; cost $4 billion
Aliante Station, A smaller project by local casino operator "Station Casinos."
Cosmopolitan, 3,000 rooms; cost $2 billion
Fontainebleau, 4,000 rooms; cost $1.5 billion
Project X on the site of the former Westward Ho (next to CircusCircus), cost $1.8 billion
Las Ramblas, 1,225 rooms; cost $3. billion.
The Plaza.....4000 rooms?....$5-6 billion

So then.

We're below 100 yen to the enfeebled green$pan.

Where's this broadly-expected intervention from the BoJ, hmmm???

Weren't we supposed to have seen intervention at 102? Like once before?
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1P1-24443544.html

Traders get the weekend to ponder the apparent absence of the BoJ's this week.

I think the BoJ is going to be late to the dollar rally party, bwtfdik.

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Maybe we'll wake up Monday to China unpegging from the dollar.

Another pretty good day. The Fed did something. What exactly isn't clear but Bear kept it's doors open to people wanting their money so it was good. It's always good when they do something.

'They aren't going to let the financial system collapse because it would be too terrible' I heard on PBS News Hour tonight.  Faith is a powerful thing. Failure is not an option.  God or the gods won't let America fail. It's impossible.  Impossible to conceive at any rate.

Doc must of needs be Perfectly Correct for if real Liquidity is missing, this present landscape is the reflection.  your jickiss still views Higher Long Term Interest Rates as the element that will Define End Game.  It is as clear as the Desert Sky at twilight that Higher Long Term Interest Rates are still quite a distance ahead.