http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com

Energy futures

Currencies/Au/Ag

Still heading merrily north. All Ords +0.7% and back to our regularly scheduled programme with Energy leading, +2.9% and Miners next, +2.8%. Yesterday's hero, IT, is doing a pullback, -3% followed by Healthcare, -1%.

The big miners doing a catchup: BHP +3% and RIO +2%. Golds doing even better, Newcrest +5.5%, Newmont +3.4% and Lihir +2.5%. Juniors flat to up.

Strong moves on the oil producers: Woodside +3.5% and Santos +6.1%. Caltex lagging, -0.4%.

Japan's Export Growth Quickens

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's export growth accelerated in February as demand from emerging markets helped automakers ride out the U.S. slump.

Exports, which contributed more than half of the economy's expansion last quarter, climbed 8.7 percent from a year earlier after increasing 7.6 percent in January, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo.

``Global demand so far has held up far better than people have hoped,'' said David Cohen, director of Asian economic forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore. ``We've got the Chinese and the Russians to thank for that. They've got money and they're spending it.''

Japan's sales to Russia doubled in the past two years. Those to China expanded 45 percent.

New Zealand Consumer Sentiment Slumps to 10-Year Low

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand's consumer confidence slumped to a 10-year low in the first quarter, adding to signs record-high interest rates and rising costs will curb spending.

The household sentiment index tumbled 13.5 points to 96.5, according to a survey by Westpac Banking Corp. and McDermott Miller Ltd. released in Wellington today. The reading is below 100, indicating pessimists outnumber optimists for the first time since 2000 and is the lowest since the second quarter of 1998.

A respectable rise today. All Ords finished +1.2% and there wasn't too much change in the sectors. Energy continued to lead, +4.1% and Miners trotted along in second place, +2.8%. IT came in last, -3.7% with Healthcare next, -1%.

Miners remained elevated: BHP +2.6%, RIO +1.1%. Golds held onto gains: Newcrest, +5.9%, Newmont 4% and Lihir +3.3%. Juniors mostly up.

Oil producers soared: Woodside +5.2% and Santos +8%. Refiner Caltex closed -1.8%.

Not much movement in Asia: Honkers +0.7%, Sth Korea +0.3%, China -0.1% and Nikkers -0.4%.


Over to UK/Europe:








http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe

Germany is an island of hope and optimism in europe.

"German business confidence unexpectedly rose for a third month in March, suggesting Europe's largest economy is coping with near-record oil prices and a surging euro."

"`Germany is in much better shape than the rest of the euro- area economy,'' said Natascha Gewaltig, an economist at Action Economics in London. ``Order books are still full, which will lead to much stronger-than-expected first-quarter growth.''"

"Still, German companies are benefiting from booming demand for their goods in emerging economies such as Russia and China. While export growth will slow to 5 percent this year from 8.5 percent in 2007, sales should still breach the 1 trillion euro ($1.56 trillion) mark for the first time, the BGA exporters' lobby said March 12."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...93XM&refer=home



Still in a boom

Poor people and poor companies pawn their luxury items.

"Ford Motor Co., the world's third- largest automaker, will sell Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors Ltd. for at least $2 billion as demand for the luxury vehicles falls at the fastest pace in at least three years."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...Ox84&refer=home

"As gold prices rise, more struggling borrowers are turning to the pawnbrokers. The price of gold has jumped about 40 percent over the past 12 months, with the value of a contract for immediate delivery reaching a record of $1,032.70 on March 17."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...WKGo&refer=home

Pentagon Capital Management, run by multi-millionaire Lewis Chester, has become the latest hedge fund to succumb to the turbulence in the financial markets.

Pentagon Capital falls to market's turbulence

You can follow all the hedge fund implosions at my colleague Aaron Krowne's Hedge Fund Implode-o-meter at http://hf-implode.com

I'll be posting a podcast later today.

Good Morning!

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Michael Lewis' take on the Sturds affair.
It kind of rubs in the idea that the people at the top have no idea of what's happening in the front lines (like in his book).

"What Wall Street's CEOs Don't Know Can Kill You: Michael Lewis "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...ALNQ&refer=home

"A billionaire from outside the place -- the sort of investor who has the power to know as much as it is possible for an investor to know about a Wall Street firm -- was long the stock at $107 a share.

Three days earlier, on theStreet.com, Jim Cramer listed Bear Stearns common stock as a ``buy'' at $62. On his Crapvision program that day, he showed his viewers a chart of Bear Stearns stock price and hollered, ``Bear Stearns is fine! Do not take your money out of Bear.'' "

"Over that weekend -- days when the markets were closed and there was no material news about the company -- Bear Stearns was believed to be worth $2 a share, so long as the Federal Reserve assumed the downside risk of almost $30 billion of its mortgage securities."

"All of this raises an obvious question: If the market got the value of Bear Stearns so wrong, how can it possibly believe it knows even the approximate value of any Wall Street firm? And if it doesn't, how can any responsible investor buy shares in a big Wall Street firm?"

"To both their investors and their bosses, Wall Street firms have become shockingly opaque."

"If they aren't about to go under, they are making so much money that everyone else hates them.

Something is about to give. "

Saying that TA doesn't work is the wrong answer to the wrong question. The value of TA depends entirely upon the skill of the practitioner.

A lot of people play baseball. Most people can't play it at a major league level, and even some that do, don't play it very well. The rules of baseball aren't that complicated, but playing the game well takes a lot of talent, skill, practice, and mental and emotional discipline. A few very talented, skilled, and hard working people, who have practiced the game diligently all their lives and can see the difference between a fastball, curve, slider, and changeup even before the point a pitcher releases the pitch, or who can tell from certain nuances of the pitcher's motion when he is going to throw to first and when he is going to the plate, or who can judge the flight of a fly ball as it first makes contact with the batter's bat... those guys make a lot of money.

So it is with Technical Analysis. Many people play the game, but only a few play it at a major league level, and even fewer at a superstar level. These people are in the trading rooms of the Yankees and Red Sox... er... I mean Goldman and Greenwich, and a few of them are playing right here on this board.

And of course, some people who write newsletters interpret the game very well from the booth. You can listen to them night after night and learn a little about the game as they call the plays and explain the game and its nuances. Others are blowhards who sound good. They are there only to hear the sound of their own voices as they play to the fickle crowd.

So let's

PLAY BALL!

Goldman forecasts $1.2 trillion in credit losses.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2539260820080325

Missed that yesterday.

Karl Denninger is very good at a lot of TA. He has just let his view of fundamentals bias him to his detriment on some trades.

Haven't we all done that at some point or another?

Best of Gloomberg overnight

DJ Fed Accepts $7.25 Bln In Overnight RPs

Type of transaction: Overnight RPs
Total accepted: $7.25 Bln
Total submitted: $21.1 Bln

Agency Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.3 Bln
Total submitted: $9.3 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 1.5%
Weighted Average: 1.62%
High-rate submitted: 1.85%
Low-rate submitted: 0.75%

Treasury Collateral Operation
Total accepted: $2.85 Bln
Total submitted: $9.7 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 0.2%
Weighted Average: 0.32%
High-rate submitted: 0.5%
Low-rate submitted: 0.05%

Mortgage-Backed Collateral Operations
Total accepted: $2.1 Bln
Total submitted: $2.1 Bln
Stop-Out Rate: 1.65%
Weighted Average: 1.8%
High-rate submitted: 2.05%
Low-rate submitted: 1.65%

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).

So, Monday around late morning I posted that that was probably the top, and at the bell yesterday I wrote that we should get quite a washout this AM.

Yeah, that technical analysis sure doesn't work.

These are only very short term micro-calls, but the same principles apply to the big picture.

And like baseball, players have hot streaks, get in slumps, and for long portions of the game, nothing happens.

I will be working on a podcast this AM. Won't be able to post much. Then leaving for a couple hours around 11:30 AM ET.

Very well said, Doc.

Are we looking at another 50bp rate cut.

Bob Pissonme, another bottom in the homies. Buy the dips.

WHile I'm waiting to start the podcast- 8 day cycle MAs have held on the pullback, but 6 day trendlines and 5 day cycle MAs broke particularly on the down. uptrend still intact on qqqq.

Even Joe6pack is curtailing on beer purchases.

"No More Guinness

Parris stopped buying Guinness and Royal Extra beers for himself or a round for friends, which used to cost $50 to $60 every Friday night. He's also giving up weekly dinners at the Crab House and Bahama Breeze to save more of his $69,000 salary, Parris said. "

"House as Bank Account

``I looked at my house as a bank account that was going to accrue interest on a daily, monthly, annual basis,'' she said. ``I'm looking at not gaining money on this stock that I call a house, and may actually lose money.'' "

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...7mjg&refer=home

No more crab house?!! What has the world come to? Queue in that apocalyptic techno video from Denninger.

Shouldn't we retest the LODs before rocketing higher?

Qs maintaining a life of their own as Naz -21, Qs-.25 ???

And for those who can't do that, there are always alternatives:

I'd kinda' forgotten what a great deal Tech is until the CNBS Interviews this morning. Undervalued and will do well in any environment. Earnings are ready to BreakOut and global demand will increase to ever higher levels ... and don't be surprised to see Naz 5K again ...

How could I have forgotten and missed all that ???

Uh..... he doesn't look all that jolly to me....

They are really full of helpful info.

Finally getting our pullback...let's see how things behave once we get to support...

[attachmentid=97009]

Yeah and with ORCL reporting yearnings this weak, look for that big boost from Larry and Company

Well, SPX 50 day it was nice to spend some time together perhaps we will see each other again

Just shorted KBH. Let see if goes back down to give the dipsters another chance.

I've gotta' think that the Quads Buyers and Apr 44 Call huggers are sidling up to the trough ... 44.2 ought to provide just the right mix of Feed and Hormones for the Piggies to Go To Market.

I felt fortunate to get a nibble on some Apr 44 Putz yestiddy around the 45 Marker sweating and ...

Here is Cramer saying BSC is OK I don't know if it has alreadybeen posted.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

Change in podcast shedjewel. We will be doing it tomorrow for posting in the PM.

Great, now you can get back to some Real Work here

Gotta go.

Watch 12,400 on the Dow. If it holds, we go back up. If it fails, next shport is around 12,100.

Later!

Nuts ... Had enuff to buy the Kids some New Shoes butt now it looks like back to the Second Hand Store

DJ Fed Sells Par Value Of $9 Bln
Type of transaction: BILL
Amount Sold: $9 Bln

Securities Type Maturity Date Amount
Bill 2008-05-01 $3 Bln
Bill 2008-05-08 $3 Bln
Bill 2008-05-15 $3 Bln

(Data was provided by the New York Federal Reserve Bank).



(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

How times have changed, Dow down 130 and two hours into the trading day only two pages of posts.

Hey....where'd everybody go?

[attachmentid=97010]

Come back and fight you sissies...

Even a half-clueless knucklehead like me can put TA to profitable use. My strategy is about 1/3 TA. I rarely trade only on the TA, but I also rarely trade without it. It has to translate into something that makes sense. Maybe that's why I stick to the simplest stuff. All that MACD and crossing moving average lines makes my head spin. If I only had a brain.

Maybe more important is I watch what other people say about TA to figure out what other people might be doing... Sort of a way to watch out for danger.

Let's discuss it.

My thoughts, too.

Things Have Changed, Indeed.

I guess people don't want to fight the FED,

An awful lot of us have lost their get up and go.

And for good reason.

Here is the cure .... switch to be one of these ....

I'd be more like one of these.