Feel free to tell us how you voted and why. This poll will close on 12/31/02.

Market will be rebounding at that time from a much lower low, hopefully 700 or so in early Feb 03

A bloodbath related to Q1 warnings, read lack of sales of ANYTHING. Throw in a coincidental 10-13 week cycle bottom and voila: CRAPOLA! Might be a good time to dong for a fresh cycle up-phase of a month or so before more downside begins again. Ride the rollercoaster baby! That reminds me of a Bill Cosby stand-up I caught many years ago relating to rollercoasters. Almost pissed myself laughing and that one skit has stuck in my mind for over thirty years! If I could listen to that solo performance today and substituted the words "stock market" for "roller coaster" I would probably piss myself laughing today!

I don't think the markets will be open in March '03, hence I opted for the lowest possible number. Just hoping I can time this to remove as many chips from the table before Mad Max time. I would be out of the markets completely if I weren't managing some funds for my mother.

"Hunker in the Bunker"

the combination of a collapse in the economy and a terrorist like event will push us south of 650...timing is a little tough,but i believe it will happen by march.

there will finally be a number of large unfilled gaps in this timeframe(i know,it's hard to believe)

its gonna be interesting to look back and see who is right.

I voted for 700 but, i believe we will be in a range of 675-725 by or before the first week of April. If so. I is commin' to see you Doc.

spx in the 500s or 400s before summer.

buckle up.

I voted for 900.
I'm sure this won't make me Mr. Poopularity™ around here. But I call 'em like I see 'em.

I believe, at least today I believe , that the one and three year cycles are in their up phases. I think both will peak sometime in the first quarter. I project a high first quarter of about 960. By the time 3/31/03 rolls around I hope we are facing downhill. So I voted for 900.

Before you throw stuff at me I think we will be lower in January than we are now.

My WAG is that the one year topped 03/02 and bottomed on 9/30/02. The three year topped 03/13/00 and bottomed 09/17/01.

Rich- Your reasoning is sound, and I don't want to bias anyone's thinking, but late March will be the probably the final part of a 10-13 week cycle down phase. I think it will be lower, but not 650.

Everyone should vote their conscience!

I voted for 650,..... Went with a fib retace of 2 which was near a fib. sequence date. I think something pretty bad would need to happen for the price to get down that low that soon.

I think we will re-test 800 because of the war, but with the war over before Easter the new bull market will finally begin in the 2nd quarter.

700 for me as well. IMHO, Iraq/ME is another Vietnam. Long, drawn out, door to door (ok, so nam was hut to hut) combat with invisible enemy. If we don't "win" this in 30 seconds, the markets will get a clue. Too, much higher oil by then will have taken it's toll.

qo

If it wasn't for the "Japan Jam", then I wouldn't hesitate to say in the 600s for the SPX. If you look at the past several years the Nikkei was going to be down hard for the year ending March 31, the end of their fiscal year, there seems to be the magical propping starting anywhere from late-January to mid-March.

Somewhere in that timeframe, the Japanese Central Bank gobbles up every stock in sight, kinda like Pacman. I have no doubt we sell off after New Years, but don't think we'll see the 2003 low till significantly after March 31. Maybe we decline sharply in January-Feb, then have the prop rally into April which fails to make new recovery highs...maybe retraces say 50% of the 1st quarter decline, then the capitulation afterwards into the four-year cycle low.

Once Greenspan's job security is safe till 2006 and Japan's fiscal year-end is done with, the time is ideal for the Bush administration and the Fed to let the market capitulate. They don't know that now. Rather they will come to that conclusion next year that they can't have a strong market in 2003-2004 unless they allow capitulation. Should they time the bottom roughly mid-year, the nine to eighteen month expected "B" major bear market rally would fit like a glove in the slot just before 2004 presidential elections. Don't want to have the four year cycle low start in the first quarter as it might run out of gas by November 2004.

I say lower than 600 (wishful thinking), but it all depends on how well they "game" psychology. If the psychology goes poof there won’t be a market anymore. TA still works because we haven't "turned the corner" on the inflationary psychology which is the basis of all “reality”. What a lot of people don’t seem to understand (comprehend) is that there is nothing that will stop the downward spiral. Nothing, period. The fractional reserve scam is based on a figment of everyone’s imagination, and when that figment goes poof it will be over… The deflationary shockwaves have been minor so far. We have seen nothing yet. If “Panic” or “capitulation” shows up in the slightest, IT WILL BE THE END OF INFLATIONARY CIVILIZATION AS WE HAVE KNOWN IT. They have computers now, when the GMTFO Cornered wild animal stage begins the entire world banking system will collapse in the blink of an eye.

Or a miracle is going to occur like… By March, 6,000,000 Jobs at $30,000/year will need to be created to count as a miracle. What are the chances of that?

Answer: 0%

I say it will be 723.97 on the S&P 500 for no other reason than I like the number.

It seems logical to me that US markets will follow the bear path led by Japan. The Nikkei topped out at the onset of 1990 and crashed from 39000 in 5 waves ending in 1992 in Wave A. From 1992 to roughly 1996 the B-Wave took the index sideways in a 3-wave corrective structure. Since then the index has been declining in another 5-wave pattern which is Wave C.

US markets started their bear a decade later and completed Wave A down in October 2002, which I measure out as the end of the 5th wave down. Since then we have been in the early stages of a B-Wave, so this could last a few years before US markets enter Wave C down. We should therefore expect to go in a sideways trading range at least until 2005.

For those not familiar with Elliott Wave Theory, market corrections take the form of an ABC decline. There are several forms of corrective wave patterns, however the initial 5-wave decline in Wave A has determined that this bear correction is taking the form of a zig-zag, or a (5-3-5) wave structure whereby A=5 waves down; B=3 waves up/sideways; and C=5 waves down. Once a bear of this magnitude completes Wave C to the downside there should be a long period of consolidation (or flatline). This is why the idea of a 'renewed bull market' at any stage of this decline is totally misleading. I believe that the next 'bull market' may not begin during our lifetimes.

In any event, to answer the question I think S&P will be somewhere above 650 and below 960 in March, 2003.

LT Japanese Nikkei Chart..



Anyway you slice it, this bear is longterm and global, imho..

Around SPX 768.63....give or take a few tenths

Monthly chart:



Of course, in real life.......Hurst cycles RULE! ...and fibos, while intriguing, are only secondary tools...imo.

Somewhere in the 600-675 range. Then Greenspan can put that in his pipe and smoke it.

I base this on a number of things, including cycles, e-wave, and voodoo (some people refer to this as the "Bradley model").

AND I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Unless something changes, in mid-January I'll be loading up on June puts (just in case I'm a little early w/ March).

I've been saying it for awhile: the next move is the one we'll be telling our grandkids about.

But what the hell do I know.

doc: the otherwise bell-curvish distribution of our responses looks like, well, a stool hitting the pavement - it's all squished at the bottom. over a third of us stoolies think the market will close at or outside of the available parameters. given how close our average was for dec 02, i'm very interested in our groupthink for mar 03, and i'd guess i'm not alone.

i hate to suggest a do-over, but i'd love to see this survey with choices down to 450 or so. i bet if you dropped links to a new one in IDS & M2M for a few days, with a quick explanation and closing date, we could get even more participants and have the whole thing open & shut within a week. if i could do anything to help make it happen i'd be glad to.

your $.02?

I hope picture explains everything. Little more upside or may see double top in Jan-Feb then dribble down and the bounce to make the bull happy in Dec 2003.